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I think there will definitely be a film industry in 2020. However, I think it will be a little bit different than what it is right now. I think there will always be consistent production from the bigger studios, but what I'm betting on are the small production houses and independent filmmakers getting an easier chance at bringing their projects to the market.
With costs for decent cameras, basic equipment, and software being what they are now, I don't see why someone with a vision and the elbow grease can't start producing their own content with a minimal expense of under $10k. Yes, that's still a lot of money (to me, anyway) but it's attainable, depending on what you're going for.
As far as the economy, I know of many people that have started spending more on things like DVDs and video games to watch and play at home because gasoline costs $4/gallon. Lots of folks aren't going to load up the ol' Suburban and go on a long family vacation, so they're going to entertain themselves at home.
I also think Chris has a very good point. Unless there's a nuclear holocaust or something, there will always be a demand for entertainment and educational video. If less and less people have the means to travel, they might want to live vicariously through their DVD collections.
And Jack, you have a point about video being a discretionary expenditure. However, it's up to us to sell these businesses on the fact they DO need the services and products we provide. Sure, you could save a chunk of money right now and just go with the PDF, but what about the employees who learn better with visual aids? What of morale and retention and yadda-yadda-yadda.
Long story short, I think the film industry will be alive and well. After all, when Hollywood is finished remaking all the films from the 70's and 80's, they'll have to start remaking the remakes from the 90's and 2000's!
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