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For a format or media to gain wide adoption it has to reach a critical mass so that when you produce something on it, you know people can play it. It happened about 5 years ago with DVD. It may never happen with Blu-ray.
As someone who produces video for niche audiences. I don't see how Blu-Ray will ever make a lot of sense as a distribution media. I figure it will take about 3-5 years after prices drop below $100 to ensure that when you send out a disc, someone will actually be able to play it. In the meantime, online delivery will continually improve and become the obvious choice for distribution - no physical media required. I think Blu-ray can still find a niche for backing up data and Hollywood movie delivery. I don't see it being widely used in corporate, advocacy, institutional or personal use. I'd like to be proven wrong
If they were smart they would have used the news of HD DVD dropping out to spur people to buy Blu-rays. They should have had massive price cuts immediately after. They may have lost some money in the short run, but they would have had a chance to reach critical mass on the number of units out there. Now they'll have a much harder time of it.
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