Hello Everybody,

I was wondering what your views are for the future of Avid and Final Cut Pro.
My two cents are within three years FCP will have all of the advanced features of avid and will become the industry standard.

Cheers,

David Applegate

It really depends on what "surpass" means. FCP4 is a tremendous product (and the one I use). It's certainly capable of, and currently used for, cutting just about anything an Avid can cut.

But Avid has been deeply embedded in the motion picture and television businesses for many, many years. They spend millions on a dedicated sales force whose mission is simply to ensure that the big Avid system contracts stay right where they are and continue to flourish. Feature comparisons to FCP, Vegas, or any other editor are irrelevant. Avid works very hard to ensure that FCP remains categorized as a "consumer/hobbyist/student editor" in the minds of the men who sign purchase orders (and who never touch an editing station). Economics and influence are at the heart of nearly all "industry standards".

Apple will never have a comparable sales force to Avid. But perhaps eventually (10+ yrs.) if Apple maintains its stamina and product dedication FCP may be as broadly accepted as Avid. But don't count on it.

Meanwhile, just cut with whatever you can afford and whatever you enjoy working with.

Wasn't the movie "Cold Mountain" edited on Final Cut Pro?

<<<-- Originally posted by Ted Springer : Wasn't the movie "Cold Mountain" edited on Final Cut Pro? -->>>

Yes it was. And I don't understand why people are so pessimistic about FinalCut becoming the NEW STANDARD. Obviously Avid dominates the film & TV market, but I expect Apple to get many switchers when they are forced to choose between Avid's expensive upgrades vs Apple's insanely attractive offering.

Three years ago nobody thought FinalCut would be the amazing tool that it is and in the years to come I expect to see FC pick up even more momentum and industry acceptance.

Three years ago FCP was unacceptable for the film and TV business, especially compared to Avid. Only recent improvements have driven it to where it is now.

Avid has better workflow and interface but FCP has become a fine product.

I would say the FCP has "surpassed" Avid in the indy/prosumer small shop areas, by virtue of the fact that it targeted them while Avid ignored them. Avids response was to create Avid XpressDV and Pro.

(I cut on Avid, my boss cuts will FCP we work in the same shop)

Cold mountain was cup on FCP, in fact, as I recall they strung five computers together to get the same abilities as an Avid Symphony. In order for FCP to "compete" with Avid, it will have to build an offer "High End" hardware solutions with dedicated sales force and service

OR

Computers will have to become even faster to allow for uncompressed real time high end production capabilities for "off the shelf" software. Is that day comming? Perhaps. Does Avid know it? You bet.

You can read an interview with Walter Murch here. (http://www.apple.com/pro/film/murch/) It was more like for less than the cost of one Avid Symphony he could purchase five Mac G4's, FCP, Cinema Tools, Aurora Ignitors for RT 24fps capture, and a fiber RAID system. In another interview he stated that he never could have edited the 1/2 million feet of film in the time alloted with Avids (with the same budget).

FCP has made massive leaps and bounds into the industry in the last couple of years.

Cold Mountain, Scrubs, Stargate SG1 (you can even see FCP in the episode 'Heros') and a lot more none of us even heard of.

Apple has a pretty aggressive direction into this area and has bought companies like the makers of SHAKE and introducing Pixlets both of which are exclusively available on Mac.

Look at the films that used SHAKE in the last couple of years and to do that they had to be on a mac and FCP is getting a lot of press.

plus there's the price point on Avid systems these days--- FCP plus a G5 is a hell of a lot less.

It will be interesting to see how things go but FCP is moving into a lot of areas and will only grow.

It is interesting to note that Walter Murch was the first one to edit a feature film using the Avid (English Patient) and now went on to be the first one to dump the Avid and use FCP on a feature (Cold Mountiain). He won an Oscar for the first and a nod for the second.

I have a friend who assisted on both, and he is certain there is no going back. The economics alone make FCP highly attractive. When you add compatibility issues and the beauty of a software-based solution, it would be tough to justify creating an editting studio based on Avid and not FCP. He has no question at all that FCP was a far better system for them to use.

This kinda reminds me of when Lanier Business Machines made and sold really nice word processors running on dedicated hardware (early '80s about $15,000 a pop. They owned the market. This little upstart, Word Perfect, was selling a software application that ran on the IBM PC. It couldn't possibly compete with the powerful and sophisticated Lanier machines, they weren't troubled by it. Snicker-snicker.

That's an apt analogy, Dan. I recall very well having Lanier salesmen calling on me in the early/mid 1980's when I did have several of their workstations installed. They did sing that "we're experienced, we're dedicated, let us upgrade you" song in my office. I also vividly recall how aghast they were when one day they found an IBM PC and printer sitting at the reception desk. Their reaction was similar to that of a home owner who'd just found a mold outbreak in his basement.

FCP has a great deal of broadening momentum at this time. I just hope that it represents an ever-strengthening force for sales of Apple equipment into the professional community (which is really the impetus behind Apple's support and development of these products). If Steve Jobs decides to exit his successor may well have a very different perspective.

The Murch/Cold Mountain thing and FCP was just a brilliant Apple marketing tool for FCP. Believe me, I have inside sources on this one.

It's similar to Soderberg (SP?) and Canon with "Full Frontal."

However, Avid needs to get their $hit together and pay attention to their competition. At this point, MOJO is a joke. One stream of uncompressed ....whoopie!

The problem with Avid is ... they are competeing with themselves. They need to lower the price of Adrenaline or dump it all together. They are in a virtual pigeon hold due to their "flagship" systems.

Unless they open up Xpress, they're screwed.

Bottom line .... the consumer is the winner.

Whether you're a FCP loyalist or an Avid person, be lucky the two products exist. It only benefits us.

FCP has taken over some areas like trailer editing. As for the future, I'm not going to pretend to be a Miss Cleo.

2- Does anyone know how Avid lost money? Their stock report shows that they actually lost money in some quarters.

<<<-- ... reminds me of when Lanier Business Machines made and sold really nice word processors running on dedicated hardware ... little upstart, Word Perfect, was selling a software application that ran on the IBM PC ... Snicker-snicker. -->>>

Funny story ... especially since I'm sitting here using Microsoft Word ... makes you wonder, doesn't it ...

I met an editor the other day who put things into perspective:

If you are editing on an Avid as opposed to using FCP then you are in an other ball game. Simply because you stand out from the thousands upon thousands of hobbyists that know how to edit in FCP but are not editors.

On the other hand it basically comes down to your reel as an editor. Your reel is what basically sells you as an editor regardless if you are editing on Avid or FCP.

Though, I do foresee that over the years as all the people who have grown up with FCP, will stay with FCP. Also when they are well into their professional editing career.

My question is though, will Apple develop a high end FCP similar to Avid Symphony?

"My question is though, will Apple develop a high end FCP similar to Avid Symphony?"

(Actually, I think Avid superseded "Symphony" a while ago.)

What features do you believe FCP lacks (besides $100,000 pricing) to be a "high-end" system?

Here's a clip from teh avid website. For more detailed info. Go to www.avid.com

When they say real time... the mean absolutely real time.

Avid Symphony
Available for Windows, and now Macintosh OS X, Avid Symphony systems offer a complete set of real-time creative and corrective finishing tools, multi-format mastering and versioning, and the industry's most widely-used nonlinear editing interface for professional video and film postproduction. Bidirectional compatibility with the complete range of Avid editing systems and media network solutions and support for dozens of the most popular third-party plug-ins and applications make Avid Symphony the finishing system of choice for creative professionals and collaborative environments.

Key Benefits of Avid Symphony
Total Conform: The industry's fastest and most complete conform of Media Composer projects, meaning users can seamlessly conform a Media Composer offline project in Symphony for online editing and finishing, thus increasing productivity and efficiency
Real-time finishing tools: High-quality, real-time built-in color correction (primary 10-bit RGB; HSL hardware; secondary color correction, and now with AutoCorrect technology), real-time integrated Ultimatte keying, real-time motion tracking and image stabilization, real-time moving mattes
Universal Editing/Mastering: Multiformat 24p/25p editing and multiversion mastering capabilities; the Universal Online capability extends Symphony by offering 24p/25p Universal Editing and Mastering for multiformat output of PAL, NTSC, 16:9/15:9, and 4:3-all at the push of a button.

I was clearly mistaken with respect to Symphony.

"Funny story ... especially since I'm sitting here using Microsoft Word ... makes you wonder, doesn't it ..."

Yes, but the reason Word surpassed Word Perfect was because of the unlawful, anti-cometitive, perhaps criminal, behavior of Microsoft. Indeed, the single biggest beneficary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks may well have been Microsoft. The federal anti-trust cases against them were settled to Microsoft's benefit due to the huge diversion of federal resources to deal with the national tragedy of 9/11/01. Microsoft should have been broken into peices, in accordance with federal anti-trust statutes. I believe some members of Microsoft management should have been imprisoned.

I, for one, will never purchase a computer who's operating system is provided by Microsoft. I have to use Word because of the de facto monopoly Microsoft has created for itself. But, in every instance possible I avoid Microsft products.

dB

Avid has it’s place, but in my experience in the Midwest and the south, my expericence as an FCP editor is more sought after than my Avid editing experience. My students are much more eager and exicted to learn about FCP than Avid.

Dan, you aren't one of those guys who flogs himself with a whip every day, are you?

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My students are much more eager and exicted to learn about FCP than Avid.
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What a student wants and the reality of the world are two different things. In my dealings I rarely see FCP, even in small budget situations. So through my eyes you would be doing them a disservice.

(But, yes I also know FCP has growing popularity.)

I think the best approach is to learn (or at least be familiar with) both interfaces. The more you can do... the more you will do.

Rob, no disservice, I subscribe to several job posting services (TV Gigs Online etc) and the postings run lopsided in favor of FCP. And besides, who would want to teach excited students, that can't be education.

Jeff,

I should have reworded that post, after midnight and all.

I was trying to say, and I think you caught it, that just because students are excited about learning a skill that they should be taught it. It would be a wasted effort and a disservice to them if there is no demand for it. But I know FCP skills are in demand.

I'm sorry if I sounded like I was sounding negative toward you.

<<I do foresee that over the years as all the people who have grown up with FCP, will stay with FCP.>>

I disagree. Many editors actually know both programs. As one works in the industry, they often don't have a choice in the program their production company use. They learn and do what they have to to move up in the ranks.

Also, for the common consumer, many become so dedicated to a product that iot seems to echo iconography. I myself just navigate to the best product that I can afford. I do business meetings and weddings. There has never been a cliente who cared to ask what my editing program was.

You guys were saying something about Apple needing Pro support like Avid? I think they just started their path to it:

http://www.apple.com/support/products/provideo

I just bought a dual G5 with FCP HD - and they were pushing the Pro support like crazy. They wanted me to know that Apple were serious about supporting video. If you walk into the Apple stores it's very media intensive...they're aware that video cameras are everywhere and they have an edge over all PC's out there. (being so easy to use) It would make sense to me that they seperate and "Pro" their FCP people.

They have easy (iMovie), medium (FCP Express), and harder (FCP HD). With this new support for "Pro" people...it seems to me they're doing whatever it takes to grab every customer....now and in the future.

Murph

I do business meetings and weddings. There has never been a cliente who cared to ask what my editing program was.I suspect it's your cliental. I've had many an art director ask if I shoot with Nikon or Hasselblad. Likewise, I've had many a director or ad agency rep want to know if I was using AVID, FCP etc.

For more information on Murch cutting Cold Mountain with FCP purchase the February "Lafcpug on DVD" Over 2 hours of him on the art of film Editing and Editing Cold Mountain and likes and dislikes of using FCP.

http://www.lafcpug.org/store.html#anchor812702

BTW this was never a Apple PR thing, It was Digital FilmTree in LA that put this together and supported the production the ENTIRE way.

Michael Horton
lafcpug

I guess when more features and tv shows are cut on FCP than AVID, you could say it will have surpassed it. Untill then, AVID still holds more than 90% of the market.

Time will tell.

Two comments that no one else seems to have touched on -

1) As I recall, if you read the interviews with Murch about editing "Cold Mountain" one of his complaints about editing "English Patient" (?) on Avid was downtime.

2) I think it was someone on Scrubs who commented that they thought the major feature missing on FCP for TV work was something to do with working with multiple cameras. His feeling was that is FCP could do multicamera work then TV would quickly switch to FCP. (??)

Also, the May issue of Videography talks about the positive reception that FCP HD received at NAB from the HD editors.

As for comments about the movies using Shake (LOTR, etc.). Are you sure they were using Shake on Macs? Aren't there other options for running Shake? On SGIs, for example?

The company that just hired me recently purchased a G5/FCP HD station saying they are eventually switching to FCP for all their work.

They are keeping the PC/Matrox Digisuite for legacy work however.

Great disscussion,

I'm a prime example in that market economics have dictated what system we use and I'm sure the few short falls in Final Cut HD will be easily rectified.

I'm presently building a new business in London which will be pushing out a bi-monthly DVD. We had an avid sales guy round and on nearly every comment (for our needs) the Mac could do the same or better and of course was a damn site cheaper. In the end the guy just gave up and I saved the business a fortune, not to mention the fact we also now don't have to buy a standalone and expensive HD moniter as the 23 inch Cinema displays dotted round the place will do this for us.

With regards to what format you are trained on this is becoming more of a non-issue. The bottom line is how good your ideas are and of course what your reel looks like.


So avid had better watch out, you don't have a compelling enough proposition at the moment.

Best

Jonathan

While WordPerfect put the initial word processor on the map for PCs they too rested on their reputation and paid for it. Word became huge when WordPerfect decided NOT to do a Windows 3.x version and when they did it was a horrible hack. Then, when they recoded the thing to make it work they changed the keyboard commands and compatibility between versions stunk, essentially alienating their entire user base. Word is a mess, no doubt, but part of WP problems were their own hubris... which brings us back to Avid. With XSan, XServes and FCP, I think Apple is primed to make FCP even more powerful. Avid should probably focus on doing the high-end really well, something Apple can't, and wouldn't want to try to compete with (IBM main frames are still being sold).

All of which brings us back to the original question of the first poster

"I was wondering what your views are for the future of Avid and Final Cut Pro.
My two cents are within three years FCP will have all of the advanced features of avid and will become the industry standard. "

If by "All of the advanced features of Avid" you are talking about a symphony or nitris... then you are talking about a lot of hardware based features. Not sure Apple wants to get into that.

To be honest with the advancements in Video Graphics cards and the speed of the G5 and other 64 bit processors on the way, IMHO the only hardware you need is a fast firewire connection and a good break-in / out box.

Having always been intrested in editing, I remember the days when you had racks of hardware just to do title generation. Back in 1994 at an edit facility called optical image bragging about their new £150,000 machine.

So eventually it will all come down to exisitng hardware within Pc's / Apple's / Linux machines.

I completely agree with the previous comment though. For Avid to survive they need to occupy a high end niche OR drop the price and take Final Cut head on whilst they still have a strong brand reputation - BUT also code for unix / Mac which is vastly becoming the weapon of choice (walking round the broadcast show in London and looking at the stands showed this).


Best

Jonathan

"Code for Unix/Mac" Not sure I get your point. They already ship a copy of Mac AND Pc versions when you buy.