What’s the future for Blu-Ray

[Harrison Murchison]

The download figures are a bit off. When we need to press discs we of course make sure the discs is all inclusive for the areas we distribute.

The thing I like about digital distribution is that I can more easily tailor my presentation and I never run into production problems or warehousing different SKU.

With a DVD or even Blu-ray you have to deliver the movie 3 or more subtitles and soundtracks localized to various countries you will distribute and other items in addition to menu changes and more.

Now with a digital file I'm going to ensure that I've only included the data I need for English speaking people in North America. I may have other files targetting different languages but those can be a seperate choice for download and thus never affect my data size.

Bandwidth is precious and it will get more expensive for heavy users. But we've got future encoding improvements that'll cut our data by half and more infrastructure improvements that will increase our available bandwidth.

Blu-ray is a capable format and will likely be the last optical format and the perfect bridge to a new digital world. I've got no problem investing in it but unlike with DVD I will not buy just any old movie in HD. It's got to actually take advantage of the superior features of Bluray and deliver an outstanding product.

The price per movie is higher and thus my threshold for making a purchase has make a corollary increase as well.

[Perrone Ford]

Dude, we're dinosaurs.

Some of us were around for the VHS/Betamax wars (and even the OLD VHS), we on "records" in 33 1/3, 45s, and I still have some 78s. I had 8 track tapes too.

But for every one of us, there are 10 teens or 20-somethings with Playstations, iPods, etc. who don't understand all the fuss. BluRay for the younger ones will be their FIRST optical experience.

In the indie video market, we like to believe we influence the market. We don't. You know who does? Data.

What do you think the installed base of Xp/Vista is right now? What happens when MS decides to ship on BluRay instead of DVD? I watched it happen from 3.5" to CD, and from CD to DVD. I installed Win95 on over 200 workstations when it came on 22 floppies. Or 1 CD. We couldn't use the CD because our servers didn't have them back then.

My install in January of Windows Server 2008 took over 20GB. How long before you think THAT starts shipping on Blu-Ray? And SQL Server, and every other backend piece from MS.

We are a speck on the landscape of media format. And it'll be a LONG while before software companies ship software on flash media. Any of you have SDHC slots on your desktop? How about an expresscard slot? What do you think the discussion is at HP, DELL, and IBM? Do we go BluRay next cycle, or flash.... I know what my money would be on.

Cycle: PC manufacturers ship BluRay in home PCs > Public wants to use their new drives > media demand skyrockets, media prices plummet, BluRays get cheap > video market takes advantage of cheap prices.

Happened with CDs (especially home audio guys), happened with DVDs, and will happen with BluRay.

[Chris Leong]

Perrone
In time, you may be right. Absolutely. 25/50GB opticals? In time, they'll go away.

Question is, how fast? DVD fast? Or Laser Disc fast?

Moore's Law says very fast indeed. In fact they may already have gone away, before they've even taken a hold.

Right now I can put all my movies onto HDDs and watch them straight to my HDTV without any of the Blu Ray nonsense.

And I can give my clients full HD program masters without it too. Thousands of copies, if I want to.

So why would I pay Sony for that honor?

I'm not talking about hardware pricing or availability or format wars.

I'm talking about per-title licensing fees just to burn a disc. We've already gone around that by direct to HDD, streaming, etc.. In the past there was no way around DVDs or laser disks. Now there is.

Maybe Sony will one day say hey, here's our AACS architecture, you can burn BRDs without paying us per title. Like the other media you've mentioned. CDs, DVDs etc. Then the recorders will be cheap, the media will be less expensive, it will become popular. But $15k per title? Or else it won't play?

The difference is that none of those CD-R or DVD-R (or +R) people ever said "hey, every CD or DVD master you burn, you will pay us $x or else no CD or DVD player will play your discs". That's my point. We could do all of that, even make 3/4" master tapes, that without paying the piper for every title. That's why it became popular. If you recall, that's how JVC "beat out" Sony before, and how IBM "beat out" Apple, back in the day. They didn't really beat anybody out, they just opened up their architecture, made it royalty free, and let market forces take care of the rest.

The paradigm has changed with the times. The media's software is being separated from its traditional hardware as more and more multinationals get into the act of digital information distribution.

And yes, the lipstick drive and the thumb drive are one and the same animal. It's just my personal name for it because you say 'thumb drive' and people here go 'huh?" but you say 'lipstick drive' and they go 'oh. right.'

Of course jm2c, ymmv etc.

[Perrone Ford]

Originally Posted by Chris Leong

Perrone
In time, you're right. Absolutely.
But 25/50GB opticals? In time, they'll go away too.
Question is, how fast?

Didn't take the industry too long to move away from single speed, single sided DVD either. Sure we'll move on. One company has already demonstrated a 10 layer Blue laser disk.

Originally Posted by Chris Leong

Right now I can put all my movies onto HDDs and bring them straight to my HDTV without any of the Blu Ray nonsense.
And I can give my clients HD program masters without it too.
So why would I pay Sony for that honor?

Suppose you had 100 clients? Or 1000? Are you going to give them all HDD? It's a solution that does not scale. Optical Scales nicely. Get some nice footage from the car show or school play? Great. But now every participant or parent want's a copy for $10. Fair price for DVD (or Blu-Ray). Can you do that with a HDD? They don't need fancy menus, just a disc.

Originally Posted by Chris Leong

I'm not talking about hardware availability or format wars. I'm talking about per title licensing fees just to burn a disc properly.

Define "properly".

Originally Posted by Chris Leong

We've already gone around that by direct to HDD, streaming, etc.. In the past there was no way around DVDs or laser disks. Now there is.

In the past, there was no home video market. It wasn't created in earnest until the DVD showed up. Not many at home had 8mm/hi8, or even miniDV. Needed a universal format to display on. CDs were pretty limiting.

Originally Posted by Chris Leong

The paradigm has changed with the times. The media's software is being separated from the hardware.

To a degree, that's true. But the media has to make sense. HDD for distribution makes no sense. Flash, until there are slots in home PCs doesn't make sense either. When I can pop an SDHC or SDXC into some unit in my entertainment center or my desktop, that will make sense.

[Chris Leong]

Originally Posted by Perrone Ford

Didn't take the industry too long to move away from single speed, single sided DVD either. Sure we'll move on. One company has already demonstrated a 10 layer Blue laser disk.

Agreed. But SSDs are already here.


Suppose you had 100 clients? Or 1000? Are you going to give them all HDD? It's a solution that does not scale. Optical Scales nicely. Get some nice footage from the car show or school play? Great. But now every participant or parent want's a copy for $10. Fair price for DVD (or Blu-Ray). Can you do that with a HDD? They don't need fancy menus, just a disc.

I do have 100 clients and a lot of them are getting HDD/direct digital streaming media, directly into their Tivo's, DVRs, whatever. Plus they're asking for regular DVDs too. If I had to pay the $15k royalty that would make it $150 per disk.


Define "properly".

With menus.


In the past, there was no home video market. It wasn't created in earnest until the DVD showed up. Not many at home had 8mm/hi8, or even miniDV. Needed a universal format to display on. CDs were pretty limiting.

VHS was the first home video market. We were there, remember? And CDs are still the medium for music - but on the brink of change too.



To a degree, that's true. But the media has to make sense. HDD for distribution makes no sense. Flash, until there are slots in home PCs doesn't make sense either. When I can pop an SDHC or SDXC into some unit in my entertainment center or my desktop, that will make sense.

Oops, sorry, screwed up the imbedding, above.

I was talking about clients who have commissioned small films. For them, flash already makes sense. They pop the thumb/lipstick drive into the WD HD player, the menu comes up, they use their remotes, like a Tivo or DVR. Done deal. They then still want their DVD copies for distribution. Only one of them even had a Blu Ray player and asked for a BRD. And the also asked for digital copies and DVDs as well.

Yes, we're in transition. But I really to believe that streaming media and the TiVo/DVR machines will take over as the distributors cut out the middle people (i.e. the video stores).

Look at cinema. The MPAA wants to stream movies via satellite directly into theaters. Why? Because if the cinema returns don't match the electronic ticket sales, they can cut the feed. They can't do that with prints.

[Mark Job]

Hi Perrone & Chris:
What we're really talking about is what I will refer to as "The last bit bucket." I think Blu-ray DVD is indeed that last bit bucket. From now on, there will be no *public" portable media format, such as Blu-ray DVD. There will only be *portals* whereby you *access* the data you want when you want it. The data will all be streamed to delivery via the Internet. All movies, music, and Tv will de delivered in this manner. Folks who want to collect the box set of the 19th Season of Lost will be able to do so by downloading a Blu-ray DVD image, or just the hyper compressed video file and manipulate that as desired on their PC or MAC.

We may see several private *Intra-Nets* spring up to service certain forms of public exhibition of digital content, such as IMAX digital and Hollywood Studios. Historically, we know the Hollywood Studios like to keep a finger in every pie going, so wherever there is a volume market leverageable, then you will see a studio presence there.

Let us not forget how expensive it is for the studios to author, mass replicate, warehouse, and ship their entertainment via DVD and Blu-ray to the so called home video market segment, which actually is larger than domestic box office. I think the big screen experience is far from over as well. The studios will want to look for the lowest common denominator of all of their market segments, thus bits will be streamed instead of packaged and sold.

[Chris Rackauckas]

Ok, well here's some input from the newer generation that has never seen a beta in his life.

Movies are watched on the computer. I know a lot of people who just watch dvds right from their laptop daily. Put it on the tv every once in awhile, but usually people just don't do that anymore. Also, a lot of the video watched is directly from Youtube.

What does this mean? Everything is digital. Pure digital. I know a ton of people that wish their dvds could just all be on their ipods. What will the consumers buy? It's going to head all digital.

Granted, I saw a BRD movie, and it was amazingly nice, but it passed its time already. I was so happy to hear about it a few years ago when I was recording all of my stuff and running out of disk space. 25 gig disk... that would be a space revolution... then came the 1T SETA harddrives for $100... that one is still keeping me busy.

So I think with the i7 quad quadcores being the $1000 computer now, and 1T drives easy to get and a 160gig ipod with video is what half the people are carrying around, movies are going to go digital.

Personally, I think the whole notion of a tv separated from the computer will disappear in 5-10 years. It already did for me, I got wintv. I think it will be a big screen tv with a computer hooked up and a wireless mouse and keyboard. They need to make some advanced picture in picture thing so that way you can have your facebook chat in the bottom right while watching a movie and it's sold to my generation.

[Simon Denny]

I can’t predict the future but I don’t see many homes upgrading to Blu-Ray unless you can buy the HD players for under $100 or less.
I’m still amazed at the quality of SD DVD’s that I hire from the Video shop and I can get a SD DVD player for $30. (Wish I could compress even to this standard)
If boxes like the WD media HDTV continue and the price drops, connecting your computer, hard drive etc is the future.
I wonder how the consumer will obtain these files/movies to use? disk or downloaded files?

Can you believe I had a couple request that if I shoot their wedding that I supply a Blu-Ray DVD as well as a SD DVD. I only posted the other day saying I have never been asked how odd is that.

[Dave Blackhurst]

I'[ve not been able to find the original source or a link of this article, sorry for posting the length, but think it's on point - came to me in a newsletter, but I think it sheds a LOT of light on the future of BR:


Blu-ray founders Panasonic, Philips and Sony are currently working with other Blu-ray Disc patent holders to establish a one-stop-shop license for Blu-ray Disc products. The license, which covers essential patents for Blu-ray Disc, DVD and CD, is expected to stimulate the growth of the market for Blu-ray Disc products. "By establishing a new licensing entity that offers a single license for Blu-ray Disc products at attractive rates, I am confident that it will foster the growth of the Blu-ray Disc market and serve the interest of all companies participating in this market, be it as licensee or licensor." said Gerald Rosenthal, CEO of the new license company. The fees for the new product licenses are US$9.50 for a Blu-ray Disc player and US$14.00 for a Blu-ray Disc recorder. The per disc license fees for Blu-ray Disc will be US$0.11 for a read only disc, US$0.12 for a recordable disc and US$0.15 for a rewritable disc. According to the company, as a result of the efficiencies obtained with the combined license offering, the royalty rates for Blu-ray Disc products are expected to be at least 40% lower than the current cumulative royalty rates for individual Blu-ray Disc, DVD and CD format licenses. The license company is expected to be launched mid 2009 and will be based in the United States with branch offices in Asia, Europe and Latin America.

[Dave Blackhurst]

Originally Posted by Simon Ash

I can’t predict the future but I don’t see many homes upgrading to Blu-Ray unless you can buy the HD players for under $100 or less.
I’m still amazed at the quality of SD DVD’s that I hire from the Video shop and I can get a SD DVD player for $30. (Wish I could compress even to this standard)
If boxes like the WD media HDTV continue and the price drops, connecting your computer, hard drive etc is the future.
I wonder how the consumer will obtain these files/movies to use? disk or downloaded files?

Can you believe I had a couple request that if I shoot their wedding that I supply a Blu-Ray DVD as well as a SD DVD. I only posted the other day saying I have never been asked how odd is that.

I've been getting decent results shooting AVCHD and rendering to SD as well as experimenting with burning BR to a standard DVD with some success... I anticipate delivering in those two formats, regular DVD for the majority, and BR on DVD for those that have a player (the test disks worked fine at the local BB on their demo Samsung...)

[Roger Shealy]

I think BRay is going to be extremely short lived. HD-DVD didn't quit because it couldn't win, it quit because there isn't enough runway to pay for the battle with BR with split revenues. Commercial BR for movies may last a few years, but I believe SD and other solid state is going to overtake optical in the near future. In addition, streaming video is really beginning to mature. I just watched a streamed movie on Netflix and was surprised how good it was. Just look at Vimeo, YouTube, and now Facebook(arguably the best?).

Personally owned physical media will diminish in popularity over the next 5 years. Solid state will likely be the mainstay for what you physically own.

My $0.02.

[Chris Rackauckas]

Remember, youtube has an HD mode now. Even less people are going to get off of it.

[Tripp Woelfel]

Don't forget the possible wild card of a technological breakthrough. But ultimately the winning delivery method will be the one that fits into the viewers' desires. What muddies that water is that younger demos are comfortable watching content on computers. Those of us who lived through the 60s (didn't say "remembered them") are more comfortable stuffing media into a box and pressing a button. But that could all change.

Whoever figures this out will make a bunch of money.

[Mark Job]

Originally Posted by Chris Rackauckas

Ok, well here's some input from the newer generation that has never seen a beta in his life.

Movies are watched on the computer. I know a lot of people who just watch dvds right from their laptop daily. Put it on the tv every once in awhile, but usually people just don't do that anymore. Also, a lot of the video watched is directly from Youtube.

What does this mean? Everything is digital. Pure digital.

...It also means it will be streamed and delivered via Internet portals rather than purchased off of the shelf of a local retail outlet.

Originally Posted by Chris Rackauckas

I know a ton of people that wish their dvds could just all be on their ipods. What will the consumers buy? It's going to head all digital.

Granted, I saw a BRD movie, and it was amazingly nice, but it passed its time already. I was so happy to hear about it a few years ago when I was recording all of my stuff and running out of disk space. 25 gig disk... that would be a space revolution... then came the 1T SETA harddrives for $100... that one is still keeping me busy.

So I think with the i7 quad quadcores being the $1000 computer now, and 1T drives easy to get and a 160gig ipod with video is what half the people are carrying around, movies are going to go digital.

....The new TV set is your cell phone and laptop or iPOD.

Originally Posted by Chris Rackauckas

Personally, I think the whole notion of a tv separated from the computer will disappear in 5-10 years. It already did for me,

...End of next year.

Originally Posted by Chris Rackauckas

I got wintv. I think it will be a big screen tv with a computer hooked up and a wireless mouse and keyboard. They need to make some advanced picture in picture thing so that way you can have your facebook chat in the bottom right while watching a movie and it's sold to my generation.

...HP already makes two different large screen TV's with built in HDD's and wireless network and keyboard and mouse and remote. Their flat screen TV's have an RJ 45 Ethernet Gigabit Lan jack as well. The future is now.

[Sergio Perez]

I think all points discussed here are valid, but I would like to add my 2 cents.

First of all, DIgital distribution does make sense... In the US. Internet is still developing in most countries and markets, and Internet speed, in many countries, is still years away to what you get in the US.

I have a Lacie Blu-ray burner and Toast 10 for mac, and I must say that a small narrative featurette I did -53 minutes- encoded beautifully with this software (with a pretty basic menu, for sure), with avc variable bit rate that goes from low 20'ies to the 30'ies (Mbs) looks absolutelly stunning, very, very close to my DVCPRO HD 1080p master. The file size is, however, 9.5gb. I can't see files of these size working for downloads, at least not in the next 3 to 5 years.

Blu-ray is as close as we got to a Mass Market HD High Quality format. One cannot compare APPLE Store's 720p Apple TV capable films to Blu-rays and the uncompressed audio and 1080p picture quality. Blu-ray is probably the medium that pushes best the 1080p capable TV LCD sets that are sold worldwide. With bigger and bigger television sizes becoming cheaper, consumers will more and more demand better quality.

Blu-ray is proving to be successful and its sales are equalling DVD's in many regions. I'm no Blu-ray spokesperson, but it makes to me business sense to be able to distribute in this format.