XL2 vs AG-HVX200
 

I am interested in shooting dv with a camera to make it look like i shot a commercial and music video on film. Would the XL2 with a manual lens look beter than the panasonic camera DVX100A or the new one coming this September with the fixed lens?

Since both cameras do 24P, a 35mm adapter like the mini35 will do more to make your video look like film then either of those options. I would go with the XL2 + mini35 with some nice Zeiss lenses, unless you have a specific need for the resolution of the HVX (and by then there might be a mini35 kit for the HVX, so even better).

The panasonic is $10,000 and the XL2 is $4200
 

With the manual lens only would the picture look better on the cannon than the panasonic or would they look the same in DV mode. Or would it look better to capture in high def downconverted in final cut pro to regular dv.

If you are talking about the HVX coming out in September, and if you don't shoot in DV mode, it will look probably a lot of better. But in September there probably will be a lot of price difference between the two camera's, and remember: to shoot in HD with the HVX you must (at this point at least) buy expensive P2 cards, or a hard disk which maybe will available too in September.