$100 HD DVD player

[Kevin Shaw]

Originally Posted by Craig Seeman

I do think Lawrence and Kevin are speaking from biases and NOT about the reality of the business and the calculations that are going on. It's sounds like they're speaking from what THEY WANT things to be like, not on the REALITY or STRATEGY the "studios" have.

I'm speaking as much as possible from known facts but won't deny my preference for Blu-ray, which is the better format for my purposes and also the one with the most fully developed delivery options. As far as major movie studios are concerned, there are currently only two which are exclusively supporting HD-DVD and all the rest are either neutral or exclusively Blu-ray. If the last two holdouts switch back when their incentive contracts expire that could be a clincher for consumers no matter what happens with player prices, so in this case I think the movie studios may make the decision for all of us. Blu-ray movies outsold HD-DVD by a ratio of 2:1 this year even though the players for the latter were significantly cheaper, so if that trend continues we can guess what most studios are likely to do.

I wouldn't ultimately mind if HD-DVD overhwhelms Blu-ray to give us one preferred delivery format, but I doubt that's going to happen. Either HD-DVD will falter or both formats will limp along in a pointless deadlock until consumers give up in disgust and switch to online delivery of HD content. This last option isn't realistic yet but could be soon enough. Come to think of it, the Sony PS3 would be just as useful for internet HD downloads as it is for disc-based delivery, so either way it's a safe investment... :-)

[Ethan Cooper]

Originally Posted by Kevin Shaw

Either HD-DVD will falter or both formats will limp along in a pointless deadlock until consumers give up in disgust and switch to online delivery of HD content. This last option isn't realistic yet but could be soon enough.

Why does everyone think the delivery method is going to be online? Why not some type of system where it's sent to a hard drive inside your cable box or satellite receiver and is then transferable to your computer so you can then do with it as you wish. I could be way off here, but that seems possible to me. It might not be any faster than online delivery, but it would seem to make sense to get your content from the cable/satellite company if it's reasonably priced.

Come to think of it, the Sony PS3 would be just as useful for internet HD downloads as it is for disc-based delivery, so either way it's a safe investment... :-)

Next time I try to talk my wife into letting me spend $500 on a personal entertainment device/time waster, I need to give you a call. That was a darn good rationalization.

[Kevin Shaw]

Why does everyone think the delivery method is going to be online? Why not some type of system where it's sent to a hard drive inside your cable box or satellite receiver and is then transferable to your computer so you can then do with it as you wish.

I agree that satellite/cable HD delivery is likely to be prominent, and may currently be the most widely used option for HD movies...but good luck getting the content out of your cable box to save for future viewing. Plus I don't see the cable companies offering independent producers a way to upload content directly to customers, so that doesn't help most of us. The internet is a more promising long-term solution for my purposes, and it's fairly easy to attach a computer to most HDTVs if someone wants to view HD content that way.

Next time I try to talk my wife into letting me spend $500 on a personal entertainment device/time waster, I need to give you a call. That was a darn good rationalization.

In all seriousness, the Sony PS3 is one of the best electronic gadgets I've ever owned -- it's basically the all-purpose multimedia and computer device some of us have contemplated for many years now. It plays HD and SD movies, digital photos at HD quality, both PS2 and PS3 games and can connect to the internet and your wireless home network. At $399 for the base model it's a no-brainer as a business investment to display your video work to clients, so even if Blu-ray tanks as a movie format you'll have something which is useful in other ways for years to come. The only issue I have with it is that it gets very hot if you use it in an enclosed space, so don't stick it in a TV stand or cabinet with poor ventilation. Other than that, I heartily recommend it.

P.S. My wife's the one who bought a PS3 for me as a belated Christmas present back at the beginning of this year. :-)

[Ethan Cooper]

I saw this link on HDforIndies.

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/11/07...n-one-weekend/

Evidently they sold 90,000 of those players. That's gotta help their cause right?

[Heath McKnight]

Yup. Bunch of us home entertainment and video geeks picked one up. I wish I had...

heath

[Heath McKnight]

I wanted to post this news up here, but did it in another thread:

http://www.dvinfo.net/conf/showpost....5&postcount=24

heath

[Craig Seeman]

The price of the Toshiba HDA2 is back to about $199 (and it's discontinued BTW). The A3, replacing it is at $299. At those prices HD-DVD loses its big price advangate. For most people it's back to being a choice between $300 HD-DVD or $420 or so for Blu-ray. That's just not a big enough difference for HD-DVD to run away with a lead.

It'll go back to what movies you can buy and whether you can burn a disc of your "home movies" to hand to family members and friends.

Does anybody have any idea why they're no HD-DVD burners on the market? I belive Toshiba might be including them in some of their laptops but that's about it.

[Heath McKnight]

www.blackfridayads.com

[Craig Seeman]

I don't see the Toshiba A2 on any of those lists. I do see the A3 listed for either $199 or $169. I don't remember which. There's certainly nothing close to the $99 bargain they had.

[Konrad Haskins]

Well $169 is the A3 from Sears and Sears.com on Black Friday before 11am. The includes 2 HD-DVD (300 & one of the Bourne Movies) in the box plus a coupon for 5 more (your Choice). 7 Movies at $20 = $140 so the player is $29.
I've been sitting on the fence but I'll be sitting at my computer buying A3 on Black Frioday.

[Heath McKnight]

I may take the plunge...I wish I was shelling out $100 for it, but good analogy with the free movies. It feels like 1998 all over again, when you'd buy a DVD player and get a bunch of free rentals and DVDs (albeit, the DVDs sucked).

Heath

[John C. Chu]

Originally Posted by Heath McKnight

I may take the plunge...I wish I was shelling out $100 for it,

Heath

Me too! That special was basically a clearance thing.

I told my friend about it and he showed up at Walmart at 8:25am.that morning just as someone was walking out with the last one. Ouch.

[Heath McKnight]

In my neck of the woods, it must've been sold out quick, too!

Heath

[Evan Donn]

Originally Posted by Ethan Cooper

I saw this link on HDforIndies.

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/11/07...n-one-weekend/

Evidently they sold 90,000 of those players. That's gotta help their cause right?

Maybe not - Sony just announced that the recent PS3 price cut doubled their weekly sales in the US from 30-40k a week to 100k:

http://www.engadget.com/2007/11/15/s...nce-price-cut/

Even without doubling the 30-40k a week number makes me skeptical that the 90k number due to the firesale will make much of a difference. While it nearly doubles the installed base for HD DVD the PS3 numbers still mean Blu ray will likely have an 8- or 10-1 advantage in installed players by the end of the year.

[Heath McKnight]

Yeah, but 90,000 dedicated players (not just gaming consoles) is a big deal, regardless!

The war wages on (yay). But then there's this, which may back up my predictions of downloads winning the format battle:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/12/te...tner=TOPIXNEWS

I think NY Times is getting rid of logging in; I can still access that page days later. If it becomes unavailable in anyway, I'll find a new link. But that story is great.

heath