Format war may be almost over?

Andrew Kimery · February 1st, 2007, 02:23 PM

For reasons Mike Teutsch mentioned I think media center appliances (like the AppleTV or Xbox 360) are how TV over the internet is going to reach the masses. Microsoft already offers HD movies via Xbox LIve and announced a partnership w/major telecos at CES 2007 to have the 360 also function as the "cable box" for IPTV.

-A

Paulo Teixeira · February 1st, 2007, 02:56 PM

Verison is already putting fiber optic lines around the US so what’s to say that manufactured disc movies will be going strong in the next several years. A big percentage of people are already getting their music from the internet because of the iPod and it’s already destroying CD sales. I predict in 5 to 7 years at the most, the same thing will happen to movie sales. As far as having a hard copy, you can always put your movie on a blank disc.

Internet movie downloads are going to be bigger than a lot of you think. You have Sony, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Divx, Verizon, Amazon, NetFlix and others with extremely ambitious online distribution plans.

As long as the internet is not privatized within a few years, Independent Producers, will have a much better chance of getting their stuff shown and making money then ever before and Google is making sure that happens. They are already allowing select Producers to sell their programs on Google Video and Google only takes 30% commissions. Within the next several months this service should open up to more independent Producers.

Mike Teutsch · February 1st, 2007, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paulo Teixeira

Verison is already putting fiber optic lines around the US so what’s to say that manufactured disc movies will be going strong in the next several years. A big percentage of people are already getting their music from the internet because of the iPod and it’s already destroying CD sales. I predict in 5 to 7 years at the most, the same thing will happen to movie sales.

Music is sooooo much smaller in file size! Now try it with a HD Movie.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paulo Teixeira

As far as having a hard copy, you can always put your movie on a blank disc.

As to puting your HD movie on a blank, you are making my point----what disk?

Mike

Paulo Teixeira · February 1st, 2007, 03:19 PM

Mike Teutsch,
What I meant was that instead of going to a store and buying your movie that is already on a disc, you can always download it to your computer and store it on anything you like rather it’s a Blu-Ray/HD-DVD disc or Hard Drive.

Verizon FiOS goes up to 50MBPS, so imagine how fast the speeds will be 5 to 7 years from now.

Kevin Shaw · February 1st, 2007, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Douglas Spotted Eagle

We're not even close to moving these media formats through the web in high numbers at this point; the bandwidth just isn't there. It will be, but expecting it to happen now or in a couple of years is not realistic. New codecs are constantly in development, but for the moment, AVC is the most efficient form we've got.

Understood that not everyone will be able to stream HD content live via the internet in the near future, but that's not the point. The question is whether either high-definition disc format can gain any real traction against an onslaught of alternative delivery options, including cable/satellite HD channels and internet downloads - plus good old SD DVDs. Time will tell if people are going to buy HD-DVD or Blu-ray players in large numbers, but I wouldn't bet much on either format right now.

The main thing DVD-style discs have going for them is that most people are used to watching movies that way, and most aren't hooking up their computers to their TV. But extrapolate current trends 5-10 years into the future, and it's not so clear whether that will still be true then.

Mike Schrengohst · February 1st, 2007, 05:45 PM

The amount of special interest HD DVD's alone will make the format grow.
This NAB look for a slew of HD DVD/Blu Ray authoring and burner packages.
The Discovery Channels of the World can only carry 24 hours a day of programming per channel. Most are supported by on air advertising which is decreasing everyday. The good content and talent will find a home on a disc. In 5-10 years the broadband market will again be controlled by the big "networks" this time AT&T and Verizon.

Mike Teutsch · February 1st, 2007, 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paulo Teixeira

Mike Teutsch,
What I meant was that instead of going to a store and buying your movie that is already on a disc, you can always download it to your computer and store it on anything you like rather it’s a Blu-Ray/HD-DVD disc or Hard Drive.

Verizon FiOS goes up to 50MBPS, so imagine how fast the speeds will be 5 to 7 years from now.

How many DVDs do you or most people have? How many hard drives do you need to store them, and what if that drive fails? Hard copies will be here for a very long time.

JMHO----Mike

Rob Lohman · February 2nd, 2007, 06:28 AM

I'm thinking / hoping that the world will move to a system where my media is always available. That includes bought media. This will work great with downloadable movies if I can hit play and it plays (reliably) in HD and just works.

In my opinion that will at least take a couple of years (probably 5+?) to fully get there. The internet lines just aren't fast enough now, nor are the backbones of the internet.

The question becomes are you going to buy a movie or pay per view. I like to own movies. But the main reason for that at the moment is that I can watch it whenever I want, including all extras (which rental dvd's tend to not have these days [at least here]). I want my Lord of the Rings *extended* trilogy with all the extras.

Once that is reliably available through an internet connection I think we'll move to a pay per view. No real reason to own it anymore if you can start watching it *instantly* (important keyword there). Of course prices need to be good for that (I'm not going to pay the same amount per view as I pay for a DVD now).

I have 200 (bought) dvd's in the house here which is starting to look a bit bad now that Blu-ray / HD DVD are around the corner (assuming either one will break through and become the next big thing).

At the moment I'm doing the wait and see thing. Both on buying (a lot) of dvd's as well as investing into Blu-ray & HD DVD players & movies.

Thomas Smet · February 2nd, 2007, 11:16 AM

I think movies are a lot different then music. The reason why most of us now buy music to download is because it is usually easier and faster. Plus many times we may only like a certain song off of an entire CD. I can download a song faster then I can get in my car let alone drive to the mall and dive through the people. With movies you don't just want to buy and download a single chapter but you want the entire movie with the extras and special features. Also with music there isn't as much of a need for great presentation. You just sit there and listen to it. Movies on the other hand people directly focus on and they like to have all the presentation materials that go along with the movie to make the experience special.

It is hard for us to even download a SD movie right now let alone a HD movie. Some people even have trouble with HD movie trailers and must download them first. I'm not saying that we will never get the level of broadband needed but it is not going to happen over night. I know a lot of people living outside of cities that still use dialup and those people will need choices. I mean it is only getting to the point now where most people can watch small streaming videos. Many of these videos are not even SD resolution yet. A lot of clients I have in fact have to watch the bigger streaming files at work where they can use a T3 connection. I'm sure companies will not like it if people start watching or downloading movies at work. Yes some of us have some pretty fat pipes but we really are in the minority.

As for burning the hard copy disk. What makes you think they will let us do that? Look how strict the music industry if getting. If they all had their way we would never ever be able to burn a hard copy of the movies we download. If they didn't care then they would let us copy HD-DVD's or Blu-Ray disks which we all know they frown upon. What if our hard drives fail with all our movies? Will we have to buy them all over agin? If we do not have to buy them we still have to download them all over again. How many of us would however? I mean it's not like we sit down and watch every movie every day. Many of us would just say forget it until we felt like watching a specific movie which at that point we would have to wait again to download it. By the time it was finished perhaps we would no longer feel like watching it. Or the other option would be to say forget it and drive to Blockbuster and rent the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD hybrid disk.

You see our music libraries are something many people may listen to everyday when they are at the gym or at work or maybe even in the car. It makes sense to take the time to download and but the songs you like because you know you will get great use out of it. Unless someone wants to make an Ipod device that plugs directly into my brain that can feed me movies everyday while I work or drive then I do not ever see movie downloads becoming any where as large as music downloads. They are two totally different beasts.

Mike Teutsch · February 2nd, 2007, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomas Smet

I think movies are a lot different then music..............They are two totally different beasts.

Sorry to truncate your post so much Thomas , but I couldn't help it, it was too perfect.

When you can walk around with 3000 songs on your Ipod, you don't need much else in the way of music availability.

Many people, just like Rob, have literally hundreds and hundreds of DVD movies. People want to hold them in their hands and take pride in their collections. I don't have that many DVD movies, but I had a big VCR library and felt that after that I would hold for the next generation of disk. Probably a good thing I did. I will, however, buy HD DVD or BR when the war is over or at least one or both look to be here to stay. It is too bad they could not have come to a compromise. If they had, think where we could be right now. I could probably be building my new library right now!

OK, the tornado warning just ended here, and I'm off the get more things done. :)

Mike

Andrew Kimery · February 2nd, 2007, 02:46 PM

I don't think streaming/downloads will mean the end of purchasing a physical product. It will just be an alternative way to get a movie, and it will probably have the biggest impact in the rental market. Just like w/music sales some people are fine w/buying a song from iTunes while others want the higher audio quality, booklet, and physical product that comes w/buying a CD.

Paulo Teixeira,
Even though legal music downloads are "hot, hot, hot" they still account for a small percent of total music sales. I wouldn't exactly call that "destroying." ;)

-A

Paulo Teixeira · February 2nd, 2007, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew Kimery

Paulo Teixeira,
Even though legal music downloads are "hot, hot, hot" they still account for a small percent of total music sales. I wouldn't exactly call that "destroying." ;)

I based that conclusion on many articles stating that WallMart aren’t selling as much CDs as they used to and I saw a program on TV about a lot of Music stores going out of business because of people choosing to download their music is stead.

Christopher Witz · February 2nd, 2007, 03:03 PM

here's what I'd like to see....

I spend;
$90 a month for dish with HD ( cable wanted $24,300.00 to install to my house... 3500' driveway )

$75 for broadband

$19 for netflix

$20-60 for itunes purchases....

so...
I'd gladly pay $200 a month for a wimax (400Mps ) service that includes unlimited streams... I don't care to store them as long as at any point in time, I can stream HD content and have enough bandwidth for my other uses... ie; ftp.... in fact..... I'd even take advantage of unlimited server storage if it was offered at $100 a month. ( I pay $170 a year for 20GB now )

I'm sure a service like this would free up a bit of my time that I spend archiving and burning....

unfortunatly for me.... I'm in rural kentucky.... a wonderful place to live.... but slow to hi-tech progress.

Douglas Spotted Eagle · February 2nd, 2007, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew Kimery

Even though legal music downloads are "hot, hot, hot" they still account for a small percent of total music sales. I wouldn't exactly call that "destroying." ;)

Not even close to accurate, Andrew. By far, the majority of my music sales are online, and according to a recent ASCAP newsletter to it's artists (of which I am one), online sales eclipsed in-store record sales for all but the largest labels in the last quarter. Look at Apple's recent iTunes press release for more information.

Online sales of media will continue to escalate in the music side, and will slowly gain ground in the visual media, but as a simple matter of bandwidth and convenience, we'll continue to see sales of BD, HD DVD, and other formats as they come available, for at least the next 7-12 years. The big research companies say 15 years before downloading movies is commonplace, but I disagree, feeling it will come sooner than that. But I reserve the right to be wrong.

Paulo Teixeira · February 2nd, 2007, 03:10 PM

I’ve already said that Verizon is offering fiber optic lines that has speeds of upto 50MBPS. Is that not fast enough?

Also a lot of companies will indeed allow you to download copies of a file you just bought. Google and Apple is already allowing people to do that although in Google’s case you have to be on the internet to view a file from a Producer that choose to use DRM. The codec is sent to your computer every time but it’s destroyed every time you X out the file. They are currently working on a solution where you wouldn’t have to be on the internet to view a file that is already on a computer.

Besides I never said online distribution will surpass Blu-Ray or HD-DVD right away. In 5 to 7 years it will dramatically affect the sales.

February 1st, 2007, 02:56 PM	#47
Paulo Teixeira Trustee Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 1,773	Verison is already putting fiber optic lines around the US so what’s to say that manufactured disc movies will be going strong in the next several years. A big percentage of people are already getting their music from the internet because of the iPod and it’s already destroying CD sales. I predict in 5 to 7 years at the most, the same thing will happen to movie sales. As far as having a hard copy, you can always put your movie on a blank disc. Internet movie downloads are going to be bigger than a lot of you think. You have Sony, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Divx, Verizon, Amazon, NetFlix and others with extremely ambitious online distribution plans. As long as the internet is not privatized within a few years, Independent Producers, will have a much better chance of getting their stuff shown and making money then ever before and Google is making sure that happens. They are already allowing select Producers to sell their programs on Google Video and Google only takes 30% commissions. Within the next several months this service should open up to more independent Producers. __________________ https://www.youtube.com/user/PhotoVi...esEtc/featured https://www.pond5.com/artist/paulot

February 1st, 2007, 03:19 PM	#49
Paulo Teixeira Trustee Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 1,773	Mike Teutsch, What I meant was that instead of going to a store and buying your movie that is already on a disc, you can always download it to your computer and store it on anything you like rather it’s a Blu-Ray/HD-DVD disc or Hard Drive. Verizon FiOS goes up to 50MBPS, so imagine how fast the speeds will be 5 to 7 years from now. __________________ https://www.youtube.com/user/PhotoVi...esEtc/featured https://www.pond5.com/artist/paulot

February 1st, 2007, 05:45 PM	#51
Mike Schrengohst Major Player Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Dallas, TX Posts: 355	The amount of special interest HD DVD's alone will make the format grow. This NAB look for a slew of HD DVD/Blu Ray authoring and burner packages. The Discovery Channels of the World can only carry 24 hours a day of programming per channel. Most are supported by on air advertising which is decreasing everyday. The good content and talent will find a home on a disc. In 5-10 years the broadband market will again be controlled by the big "networks" this time AT&T and Verizon. __________________ Mike Schrengohst dvd.pro@verizon.net

February 2nd, 2007, 06:28 AM	#53
Rob Lohman RED Code Chef Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Holland Posts: 12,514	I'm thinking / hoping that the world will move to a system where my media is always available. That includes bought media. This will work great with downloadable movies if I can hit play and it plays (reliably) in HD and just works. In my opinion that will at least take a couple of years (probably 5+?) to fully get there. The internet lines just aren't fast enough now, nor are the backbones of the internet. The question becomes are you going to buy a movie or pay per view. I like to own movies. But the main reason for that at the moment is that I can watch it whenever I want, including all extras (which rental dvd's tend to not have these days [at least here]). I want my Lord of the Rings extended trilogy with all the extras. Once that is reliably available through an internet connection I think we'll move to a pay per view. No real reason to own it anymore if you can start watching it instantly (important keyword there). Of course prices need to be good for that (I'm not going to pay the same amount per view as I pay for a DVD now). I have 200 (bought) dvd's in the house here which is starting to look a bit bad now that Blu-ray / HD DVD are around the corner (assuming either one will break through and become the next big thing). At the moment I'm doing the wait and see thing. Both on buying (a lot) of dvd's as well as investing into Blu-ray & HD DVD players & movies. __________________ Rob Lohman, visuar@iname.com DV Info Wrangler & RED Code Chef Join the DV Challenge \| Lady X Search DVinfo.net for quick answers \| Buy from the best: DVinfo.net sponsors

February 2nd, 2007, 03:10 PM	#60
Paulo Teixeira Trustee Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 1,773	I’ve already said that Verizon is offering fiber optic lines that has speeds of upto 50MBPS. Is that not fast enough? Also a lot of companies will indeed allow you to download copies of a file you just bought. Google and Apple is already allowing people to do that although in Google’s case you have to be on the internet to view a file from a Producer that choose to use DRM. The codec is sent to your computer every time but it’s destroyed every time you X out the file. They are currently working on a solution where you wouldn’t have to be on the internet to view a file that is already on a computer. Besides I never said online distribution will surpass Blu-Ray or HD-DVD right away. In 5 to 7 years it will dramatically affect the sales. __________________ https://www.youtube.com/user/PhotoVi...esEtc/featured https://www.pond5.com/artist/paulot

February 1st, 2007, 02:23 PM	#46
Andrew Kimery Major Player Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 352	For reasons Mike Teutsch mentioned I think media center appliances (like the AppleTV or Xbox 360) are how TV over the internet is going to reach the masses. Microsoft already offers HD movies via Xbox LIve and announced a partnership w/major telecos at CES 2007 to have the 360 also function as the "cable box" for IPTV. -A

February 2nd, 2007, 11:16 AM	#54
Thomas Smet Trustee Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Milwaukee, WI Posts: 1,719	I think movies are a lot different then music. The reason why most of us now buy music to download is because it is usually easier and faster. Plus many times we may only like a certain song off of an entire CD. I can download a song faster then I can get in my car let alone drive to the mall and dive through the people. With movies you don't just want to buy and download a single chapter but you want the entire movie with the extras and special features. Also with music there isn't as much of a need for great presentation. You just sit there and listen to it. Movies on the other hand people directly focus on and they like to have all the presentation materials that go along with the movie to make the experience special. It is hard for us to even download a SD movie right now let alone a HD movie. Some people even have trouble with HD movie trailers and must download them first. I'm not saying that we will never get the level of broadband needed but it is not going to happen over night. I know a lot of people living outside of cities that still use dialup and those people will need choices. I mean it is only getting to the point now where most people can watch small streaming videos. Many of these videos are not even SD resolution yet. A lot of clients I have in fact have to watch the bigger streaming files at work where they can use a T3 connection. I'm sure companies will not like it if people start watching or downloading movies at work. Yes some of us have some pretty fat pipes but we really are in the minority. As for burning the hard copy disk. What makes you think they will let us do that? Look how strict the music industry if getting. If they all had their way we would never ever be able to burn a hard copy of the movies we download. If they didn't care then they would let us copy HD-DVD's or Blu-Ray disks which we all know they frown upon. What if our hard drives fail with all our movies? Will we have to buy them all over agin? If we do not have to buy them we still have to download them all over again. How many of us would however? I mean it's not like we sit down and watch every movie every day. Many of us would just say forget it until we felt like watching a specific movie which at that point we would have to wait again to download it. By the time it was finished perhaps we would no longer feel like watching it. Or the other option would be to say forget it and drive to Blockbuster and rent the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD hybrid disk. You see our music libraries are something many people may listen to everyday when they are at the gym or at work or maybe even in the car. It makes sense to take the time to download and but the songs you like because you know you will get great use out of it. Unless someone wants to make an Ipod device that plugs directly into my brain that can feed me movies everyday while I work or drive then I do not ever see movie downloads becoming any where as large as music downloads. They are two totally different beasts.

February 2nd, 2007, 02:46 PM	#56
Andrew Kimery Major Player Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 352	I don't think streaming/downloads will mean the end of purchasing a physical product. It will just be an alternative way to get a movie, and it will probably have the biggest impact in the rental market. Just like w/music sales some people are fine w/buying a song from iTunes while others want the higher audio quality, booklet, and physical product that comes w/buying a CD. Paulo Teixeira, Even though legal music downloads are "hot, hot, hot" they still account for a small percent of total music sales. I wouldn't exactly call that "destroying." ;) -A

February 2nd, 2007, 03:03 PM	#58
Christopher Witz Major Player Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Louisville, KY Posts: 591	here's what I'd like to see.... I spend; $90 a month for dish with HD ( cable wanted $24,300.00 to install to my house... 3500' driveway ) $75 for broadband $19 for netflix $20-60 for itunes purchases.... so... I'd gladly pay $200 a month for a wimax (400Mps ) service that includes unlimited streams... I don't care to store them as long as at any point in time, I can stream HD content and have enough bandwidth for my other uses... ie; ftp.... in fact..... I'd even take advantage of unlimited server storage if it was offered at $100 a month. ( I pay $170 a year for 20GB now ) I'm sure a service like this would free up a bit of my time that I spend archiving and burning.... unfortunatly for me.... I'm in rural kentucky.... a wonderful place to live.... but slow to hi-tech progress.