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Old March 17th, 2005, 11:21 AM   #1
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I think CANON HDV will be here sooner then later...

Does anybody remember when the Sony PD170 came out?

anybody?

Yes that's right kiddies... 2004! It was January. (actually maybe december 2003, but who's countin')

Anyhow, Sony came out with a new camera then, and EEEevvvvverybody was pissed because it didn't do 24p. And then a Mere 12 months later....guess what came next???

*smile*

you guessed it... the Sony Z1U. Pretty much a HD replacement for the PD170 in only 12 months!

Now... if all truths being parrallel. How long has the XL2 been out? What? August of 2004? And when Canon dropped the XL2 on us, they didn't waste no time did they? Hell THEY DIDN'T EVEN ANNOUNCE IT AT NAB LAST YEAR!!! they were like "F**K NAB...we don't need them!!!" and instead they made their own privte announcment and it was in stores like in 30 days or someting!! When it came out, people were pissed that it was not HD, but not that much because the 24p option became a pacifier.

Now.... i dunno guys. Canon maybe smarter then you think they are. Everybody calling them slow and late and dumb and all that. (shakin' my head) I dunno about that. If you look at Sony and the PD170 and the 12 months to the Z1U. Then you look at Panasonics announcments and JVCs announcments and all that. Canon may be positioning themselves to hit the Nitrous Button on that dragster and blow past everyone in the race!!! Canon is part of the HDV Consortium too aren't they??

Based on all this evidence, the way Canon announces their stuff and delivers it right away, their esteemed history in Digital Video and all that....

Last I checked, Canon doesn't have any 'hi-end' cameras that cost over $6000 to protect do they???? LOL Lord have mercy....The more I type this post the more I think Canon is King and truly has everybody by the balls!!!!!

DUDE.. I wouldn't be surprised if CANON comes out with the VERY NEXT affordable HD camera THIS SUMMER!!! Even before JVC and Panasonic does. Think about it.......It will NOT piss of their current XL2 customers (from what I see they are already pissed anyhow) and it will put them back in the race....and most likely...IN THE LEAD!!!! The removable lens loyalty and indie filmmaker/videographer world would embrace Canon once again, and Sony/Pany/JVC would have to play catch-up!!

Since they have no big money eng or $100,000 gear to protect .............man o man........... if Canon hit the market "THIS SUMMER" with a $5500 XL-3 HDV 24p camera that uses a new removable HD lens that can be adapted to some of Canon's other hi-end glass or even the P+S??? OH MY GOODNESS!! Stop the presses!!!

CHECKMATE!!!

any thoughts?

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Old March 17th, 2005, 11:36 AM   #2
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I was even thinking a GL1 type camera with 24p and HD. Maybe keep the cost down and get all the people who want a DVX 100 size camera. Right now the Panasonic tapeless camera doesn't sound that great. It might be nice when you can record more that 12 minutes for $1,000 or whatever it's going to cost.

There is a big market out there for 16:9, 24p and HD. If someone can do that under $5,000 they will take the lead.
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Old March 17th, 2005, 11:40 AM   #3
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If they did, that would be great.
But, I doubt it.

You're comparing the marketing and release history of two different companies, who follow two different methodologies. I suppose it's possible for Canon to change the way they release cameras, but given their history I doubt this will happen.

What I find more likely is that they will start with the lower level camera, the GL2. Odds are we will see an HDV GL3 before seeing anything in the high end from Canon.

"It will NOT piss of their current XL2 customers (from what I see they are already pissed anyhow)"

I disagree, I think a release of a high end Canon HDV camera at this point would very much upset XL2 customers, and it would also significantly hurt the sales of the XL2 (assuming here that you are talking about the potential of an HDV XL2-type camera).
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Old March 17th, 2005, 11:43 AM   #4
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Bob beat me to the punch...posted while I was writing.
:)

In reference to Panasonic's camera:

"It might be nice when you can record more that 12 minutes for $1,000 or whatever it's going to cost"

All signs are pointing to a 4gb card costing around $1000 by the time the camera is released, possibly less.

You can fit 13 minutes of DVCProHD 24P footage on a 4gb P2 card (if the camera does not record the duplicate frames, and there is no reason for it to do so on solid state memory).

My point is, it looks like you will probably be able to record more than 12 minutes for $1000 as soon as the camera is released. Obviously we won't know for sure until NAB.
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Old March 17th, 2005, 11:56 AM   #5
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Forget the GL series or cheap 1ccd stuff, I ain't talking about that, or ever will.

OK, so now tell me Luis my man, what "HISTORY" are you referring to? Hell, DV is only 7 years old! *smile* And the releases of the Xl1-Xl2 seems on par if you ask me. How many Pro-Cameras have Panasonic released to have a good "History" report as oppesed to Canon's BAD History??? What about JVC??? Gee wiz, how many cameras has Canon released to give them a "Negative History" to report on their Experian Credit Report?

Just because Canon decided not to come up with a new hybrid camera every 3 months and confuse the world with XL-1/XL1s/XL-1a, XL1sa7p, or some other ridiculous version of the same thing, and the fact that they didn't bother to release 6 different (but really the same) cameras all geared towards the same people, don't make them "Historically" bad on releasing cameras.

Now, if they came out with a XL-3 this summer. How is that going against their "History"?? They don't have a HISTORY. Do they?

And i seriously DOUBT that XL2 owners would be pissed. First off, it ain't enough of em to make a big deal. Secondly, the percentage of those few that do own XL-2's that want HD, have a reason to remain true to Canon so they wont complain, they actually will be happy. And Third of all...all the XL-1/s owners who never got the Xl2 (there's more of them then XL2 owners ya know) will welcome an XL3 HD/24p camera with OPEN ARMS!!

and you think canon will give a rats ass about the sales of the XL2 after the XL3 HD camera comes out??? LOL heck naw!! Did sony give a care about the PD170 sales before they released the Z1U??? Man please, they will make so much money on an XL3 that the XL2 owners will probably get a hefty rebate! *smile*

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Old March 17th, 2005, 12:13 PM   #6
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"Forget the GL series or cheap 1ccd stuff, I ain't talking about that, or ever will."

Fair enough, but I'd still be willing to bet we'll see an HDV GL before anything else from Canon.

"OK, so now tell me Luis my man, what "HISTORY" are you referring to?"

I'm talking about Canon's history in the way they release cameras. They don't hype them before hand, they don't preview 'mockups.' They announce and show a working model usually 1-3 months before they hit the shelves. Usually before that they will have a rebate on the camera that will be most affected by the new release (the way the GL is still under rebate now by the way).

Then, when they have a camera out, they don't update it for a few years. This has held true for most of Canon's video history...from the L1 to the XL2. Again, I'm not saying they won't change it.... just that I think it's unlikely.
Of course, this all assumes we're talking about an XL2 HDV Camera (which is what you mentioned). I suppose it is possible they could begin a new line of camera, in which case all bets are off.


"How many Pro-Cameras have Panasonic released to have a good "History" report as oppesed to Canon's BAD History??? What about JVC??? Gee wiz, how many cameras has Canon released to give them a "Negative History" to report on their Experian Credit Report?"

I'm not sure where you got this from, but I never said I thought canon had a "bad" history. In fact, I've always liked the way Canon releases their cameras. I like that they don't waste my time with mockups and vaporware that might never see the light of day.

You said they have a 'bad' history, not me.
If my post gave you the impression that I didn't like the way Canon released their cameras, sorry, that wasn't what I meant at all.

"Just because Canon decided not to come up with a new hybrid camera every 3 months and confuse the world with XL-1/XL1s/XL-1a, XL1sa7p, or some other ridiculous version of the same thing, and the fact that they didn't bother to release 6 different (but really the same) cameras all geared towards the same people, don't make them "Historically" bad on releasing cameras."

I agree completely.
I don't think Canon is historically 'bad' in releasing cameras at all.

"Now, if they came out with a XL-3 this summer. How is that going again't their "History"?? They don't have a HISTORY. Do they?

I think they do, and think many people here would agree with me.
Canon has a pattern, a business model, that they have always followed when it came to releasing cameras.

Releasing an XL2 replacement this summer would go against their history in that they have never replaced a camera in less than a year. Again, this is all under the assumption that this hypothetical HDV cameras we're discussing would replace the XL2. I don't think we'll see another generation of the XL2 for another year and a half, possibly longer. Also, if they released an XL2 replacement this summer, if would be the first time they released a replacement without putting the 'old' camera on rebate first.

"And i seriously DOUBT that XL2 owners would be pissed. First off, it ain't enough of em to make a big deal. "

I never said it would make a difference to Canon, I just said I thought current XL2 owners would be upset. And I think they would be, whether there are 10 of them, or 10,000.

"Secondly, the percentage of those few that do own XL-2's that want HD, have a reason to remain true to Canon so they wont complain, they actually will be happy."

Perhaps if they were to offer some sort of rebate or trade in for new owners (like you mentioned), if not... I know I'd be upset if I just spent 5,000 dollars on a camera that a company decided to replace 2 months later (and it was less than a year old to begin with). I remember when the DVX100a came out, quite a few DVX owners were upset because the upgrade happened rather quickly. And that wasn't a major format upgrade, like this would be.


"And Third of all...all the XL-1/s owners who never got the Xl2 (there's more of them then XL2 owners ya know) will welcome an XL3 HD/24p camera with OPEN ARMS!!

Yeah, they would. Of course that doesn't really have anything to do wiht whether or not current XL2 owners would be upset.

I guess you're trying to say that Canon wouldn't care about upsetting current XL2 owners, and that might be true. But that wasn't what I was commenting on originally.

"and you think canon will give a rats ass about the sales of the XL2 after the XL3 HD camera comes out???

I suppose not.
You're probably right on that.

Although I still doubt it will happen this year, but I hope I'm wrong.
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Old March 17th, 2005, 12:29 PM   #7
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I used to think that Canon would come out with the indie's dream camera.

Why, because they have no high end camera sales to hurt. But then the more I read up on Canon they wait until someone else does it and they try do it better.

If they do shock as and we get something sooner.

I think it'll be in the price range of the new JVC or Panny suggested retail price.
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Old March 17th, 2005, 12:33 PM   #8
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Hmmmm, Luis, you stated a pretty interesting idea. Canon could very well introduce a new line of cameras, their HDV line I suppose. But I don't know really and that's the way Canon wants it as we've stated before, Canon doesn't twiddle around with mockups and vaporware. They present the product right in front of you, fully functional, and when it's ready.
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Old March 17th, 2005, 12:35 PM   #9
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When talking about a GL1 type camera I was thinking about the size. More like the DVX100 not a shoulder mount camera. I would hope it would have 3ccd not 1. I'm just thinking they could keep the cost down with a fixed lens camera.

Also if the sales of the XL2 are down they will release something else.
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Old March 17th, 2005, 12:39 PM   #10
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"Also if the sales of the XL2 are down they will release something else."

I agree, and I think that 'something else' will be an HDV GL3.
This way Canon can get into the HDV game at the lower level, and not canibalize the sales of their higher end camera.

They updated the GL1 before they updated the XL1s, and I'm pretty sure they'll do it the same way this time around.

Also, the same little birdie who told me all about the XL2 before it was released last year also told me that the GL3 would be HDV, and released sometime in 2005. I didn't know whether or not to believe him then, but everything he told me about the XL2 wound up being true...so I guess he knows what he's talking about.

:)
Take it with a grain a salt
(should this be moved to Area 51 now?)
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Old March 17th, 2005, 12:50 PM   #11
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I wonder what kind of price range a GL3HD would be in? I agree with you Luis. I just don't see why Canon would just sit around waiting when everyone else is selling cameras. How many people got a Sony Z1 instead of XL2?
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Old March 17th, 2005, 12:56 PM   #12
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<<<-- Originally posted by Luis Caffesse :
Releasing an XL2 replacement this summer would go against their history in that they have never replaced a camera in less than a year. Again, this is all under the assumption that this hypothetical HDV cameras we're discussing would replace the XL2.
-->>>

Hmmmm, you may be on to someting there. I never looked t it like that.

Canon said "The XL2 will be our last Standad Definition (SD) pro camera"

Which may be a cleaver way of saying...."We will sell the XL-2 side-by-side with our ALL NEW line of HD pro-cameras"

never thought of it that way. And that in fact, may be EVEN MORE REASON Canon may hit the market with not the XL-3, but the "XV-1" or something like that!! *smile*

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Old March 17th, 2005, 04:59 PM   #13
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I still find the pixel count of the XL2 to be a little odd. I know the 960 x 720 block wouldn't work as is because it uses non square pixels and the top and bottom are turned off. What if however you only take the square pixel middle of 853 x 480 and apply pixel shift which is 1.5 in both directions? You end up with a perfect 16x9 square pixel 1280 x 720 30p or 24p HD camera. I understand it wouldn't be perfect since it uses a lot of pixel shift. The horizontal pixel shift isn't all that different from what the SONY HD camera does. I am not sure how the vertical pixel shift would work out but if the camera only worked in progressive mode for HD then it at least wouldn't have to worry about fields.

853 times 1.5 pixel shift = 1279.5
480 times 1.5 pixel shift = 720

CANON already has the camera and block to give us a somewhat softer form of 720p HD.

The way it could work is to use the pixel shift on the whole 960 x 480 block. This would leave 1440 x 720 but with non-square pixels. The camera could then apply the 1.125 ratio squeeze to end up with 1280 x 720 pixels at 30p to fit perfectly into the HDV codec.

Maybe CANON will have a way to update the camera. If not maybe they plan on using the same CCD block. CANON doesn't make CCD blocks and they need to buy them so maybe they bought a CCD that would be future proof for the company.
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Old March 17th, 2005, 05:19 PM   #14
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"CANON already has the camera and block to give us a somewhat softer form of 720p HD...

....CANON doesn't make CCD blocks and they need to buy them so maybe they bought a CCD that would be future proof for the company."


If I'm not mistaken, those CCD chips were made by Panasonic, or their parent company.

I'm curious if we'll see those same chips in the new P2 camera at NAB.
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Old March 17th, 2005, 06:05 PM   #15
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OK everyone, take a deep breath and calm down. So much excitement on this thread, i had to take a deap breath and leave the room for a while.

Na, just kidding, the more we talk about these things, the more we learn.

I can't wait until the year 2050 when sony will finally have a super HD camera that we can plant just behind our eyeball, 1 million x zoom, built in ray gun. and thats just the consumer model.

FIRST CINEMA PICTURES
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