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Old April 7th, 2015, 12:19 PM   #1
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Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

Just for fun of course, here are my predictions of what we'll see at NAB. Usually this type of betting is a good way for me to lose steak dinners... but what the heck.

Canon
C300 mkII 4k $16k It's old enough now that it's begging to be replaced and the price plummet makes this a safe bet.

5Dc 4k. Like they did with the 'S' one body aimed directly at filmmakers. Canon has been doing weird stuff with their lines lately, so this wouldn't surprise me. What would surprise me is a 5D mkIV at NAB.

GoPro
the GoPro drone. Everyone knows about this by now, it would only be a surprise if it DIDN'T show up.
No Hero 4+

DJI
Let's just say if I had a Ronin or Phantom, I'd sell them right now.

Panasonic
AF100 version 2. The first one was a bomb after the DVX/HVX streak, but there's enough users of the GH3/4 that a propper video camera version of that sensor has to come around soon,

Sony
FS100 update w. 4k internal. sub $5000

As much as I wish for a A7s mkII 4k, I don't think we're going to see it yet.

BlackMagic
Production 4k camera mkII. 6k. Zero useful changes to the body.
Pocket Cinema Camera mkII
Long shot here.... an Ursa MINI!



Things I WISH we'd see... but almost definitely won't.

-Pentax 645z mkII with 4k and actually good video quality.
-A7s sensor in a proper video camera body.
-Fixed wing drones. So much cooler than quadcopters.
-Any super high speed camera under 5 figures.
-Carbon fiber C stands.
-Large sensor "pro" action cameras.

Feel free to throw your own in!
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Old April 7th, 2015, 12:46 PM   #2
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Re: Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

Looks like a great list. Although the show is a week away, the landscape seems rather muted imho.

I would like to see the AF-200 but am not sure if it will be there. Larger sensor action cams are interesting as well.
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Old April 7th, 2015, 02:10 PM   #3
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Re: Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

I'm going to be checking out all the new UAV offerings. I just posted a thread in Flying Cameras with a Youtube link to a new offering to be unveiled by 3D Robotics. Since Collin Guinn is at 3DR now, it has been said he is going to go after DJI.

2015, Year of the Drone.

4K will become more of an acquisition standard, the consumer end of the pipeline is already getting 'affordable' in terms of 4K television sets.

I would have to disagree with Dylan about fixed wing drones, but hey, we'll have time to hash it out in person with good food and adult beverages.

I predict a great show will be had by all who attend.

-gb-
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Old April 7th, 2015, 02:29 PM   #4
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Re: Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

One of the first places Dylan frequents is Asian Knockoff Row, where Asian manufacturers take molds of existing gear they are already manufacturing for the Big Guys and blow it out at lower prices using often substandard materials OR just disregard patents and manufacture near-perfect clones of existing patented technology.

I'm curious to see what the 100+ distributors for the same factory in Shenzhen have to offer this year...
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Old April 7th, 2015, 02:33 PM   #5
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Re: Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

I'll venture that BMD does something disruptive with resolution in a camera based off existing tech/form factor... 6k or perhaps 8k.

I also expect some form of 12G SDI configuration from them following Atomos' lead last year.

Oh, and better than 50/50 chance that they acquired another technology company and announce a dramatic price drop on some formerly prohibitively expensive technology, like they did with Teranex and Cintel.
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Old April 7th, 2015, 02:40 PM   #6
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Re: Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

To address Dylan's predictions, Canon isn't exactly notorious for announcing new cameras at NAB. They normally host their own freestanding events so I'd say it's a coin toss on a C300 refresh at NAB - I PERSONALLY would wager a slight v.1 update at best.

Sony WILL release a Version 2 update of at LEAST one camera, but I predict the X70 family. An updated FS100 in 4k WOULD be sweet but it seems at first glance they are abandoning the "ciné box" form factor. Expect at least one prosumer device in the under $2k range that low budget event guys have a use for.

GoPro as well doesn't really use NAB as a launch pad, despite their sprawling presence at the show. But I do agree that a UAV may be forthcoming at the show. I'd call it 50/50.

BMD URSA Mini WOULD be a brilliant offering... so BMD won't do it. I predict a continued reliance on non-standard connectors and technology that doesn't play well with others, much like Datavideo has historically.
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Old April 7th, 2015, 04:14 PM   #7
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Re: Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg Boston View Post

I would have to disagree with Dylan about fixed wing drones, but hey, we'll have time to hash it out in person with good food and adult beverages.
I actually pegged 2 NABs ago as the year of the drone. Rotary drones are so hyper uncool... now LIGHTER THAN AIR drones... Lookout baby!
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Old April 7th, 2015, 04:16 PM   #8
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Re: Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun Roemich View Post
One of the first places Dylan frequents is Asian Knockoff Row, where Asian manufacturers take molds of existing gear they are already manufacturing for the Big Guys and blow it out at lower prices using often substandard materials OR just disregard patents and manufacture near-perfect clones of existing patented technology.

I'm curious to see what the 100+ distributors for the same factory in Shenzhen have to offer this year...
That's because it's on the way to the beer garden. Plus, you love my Sorny FS700 and Zreiss Compat Prine kit.
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Old April 7th, 2015, 04:23 PM   #9
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Re: Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dylan Couper View Post
Plus, you love my Sorny FS700 and Zreiss Compat Prine kit.
It's really too bad Magnetbox went out of business... I'd love to see their 4k televisions based around CRT raster technology!
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Old April 8th, 2015, 09:12 AM   #10
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Re: Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

Looks like I got at least one right!
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Old April 8th, 2015, 12:47 PM   #11
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Re: Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

I predict that there will be numerous ATSC 3.0 (Next Generation Broadcasting System) demos at the show.

ATSC 3.0 Going International With 2015 NAB Show Demonstrations - ATSC
(Some additional ATSC 3.0 demos will be in private booths.)
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Old April 8th, 2015, 11:00 PM   #12
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Re: Dylan's NAB 2015 predictions...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dylan Couper View Post
DJI
Let's just say if I had a Ronin or Phantom, I'd sell them right now.
Well... asked and answered! And it's not even NAB yet!

Phantom 3 | DJI
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