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Old April 22nd, 2005, 06:29 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesse Bekas
SD memory card prices (or flash media prices in general) aren't the be all end all in relevance when discussing P2 prices.
True. However SD memory as a commodity will have a significant bearing on P2 pricing and availability. If Panasonic chooses to ignore general market values and trends, they're going to make a lot of people mad.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesse Bekas
P2 is niche product/technology aimed at Pros. Like with all other Pro equipment it will be marked up accordingly. They figure we're "overpaying" on everthing else (decks, monitors, etc...). Why wouldn't this be the same?
Right now P2 is a niche product aimed at Pros. With the release of the HVX and presumably other future consumer and prosumer cameras that will use P2 cards, it becomes a technology that spans beyond the pro market. Within the HVX200 audience, P2 will have transcended into the "prosumer" category and will be in a position to compete with other emerging storage formats that will all be targeted at replacing the common DV (and even some HD format) tape solutions. If Panasonic is going to push P2 and attempt to establish it as a serious contender in the market, charging 3 X the established price determined by the same technology and commodity used in other similar applications is going to make them more enemies than friends.

I can't believe that everyone forgets that Sony is moving all of their consumer and prosumer camcorders into the tapeless realm over the next couple years as well. They have already started with the consumer end and will be pushing BluRay HDV camcorders in the <$2000 range for techy consumers this holiday season and will also have SD camcorders in the <$800 range that record SD resolution MPEG2 and/or DV to MemoryStick. At the speed of Panasonic's announced roadmap for P2 cards, Sony will have 16GB MemorySticks first and will have 32GB MemorySticks by the time Panasonic is releasing 16GB P2s. Something doesn't add up right... I'm just comparing published product roadmaps here. Of course, all that we have to go on for Panasonic is that lame P2 brochure with that bar chart showing P2 at 128GB sometime about 2008.

I know this is all very opinionated and I don't care if you agree with me or not. But I am strong believer that if Panasonic doesn't try to keep P2 prices at least somewhat close to the SD memory they're based on, that consumers will walk on by to the next available technology and P2 will whither and die.

I doubt that a premature death of P2 would have much impact on the HVX200. As it stands right now, if I have to pay $2500 for 8GB of SD glued on a PC card, I'll still buy the HVX200 bare and I will spend the $2500 on a new carbon fiber or titanium shell notebook with one of the 160 or 200 GB HDDs that will be available this summer. Equip it with one or two extra external HDD drives that can operate off of batteries and a comfy backpack that it can operate out of. Hmmm... $2500 for 8GB of flash memory or $2500 for a <6lb notebook that can capture to 100+GB internally and it also serves as a mobile edit system and a field/studio monitor.

All things considered, I will be very surprised if P2 cards aren't available from memory card makers by the time the HVX200 is released or shortly after. So my concerns over prices are probably pointless in the end since I know that Lexar, Viking, Sandisk, etc.. will be willing and able to sell P2s for reasonable prices if Panasonic makes it reasonable to license the rights to the format.

I also have a hard time believing that Panasonic won't release low cost consumer camcorders with P2 slots that record standard DV. And I bet they release at least one such model this year for less than $1000. Tape is on the way out and screwing the consumer on the intended replacement format isn't going to help the process any and could potentially allow the competition to steal any advantage they may have. ...Hopefully Panasonic isn't so arrogant that they belive P2 and the HVX200 has no competition.
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Old April 22nd, 2005, 06:43 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Kilgroe
P2 is just SD memory, essentially an 8GB P2 is just 4x2GB SD cards placed into a PC card form factor with a memory controller than can interleave them. Charging $2495 for 4x2GB SD cards plus another $3 in parts is complete bullshiznit.
Sorry but there's really much more to it than that... one of the single most expensive internal components of a P2 card is the controller LSI, and it ain't cheap. Although the constantly falling prices of SD cards will have an effect on lowering the suggested retail price of a P2 card, the fact is that the cost of that internal LSI processor is a significant percentage of the overall cost of a P2 card. It's important to realize that a P2 card is not "just four SD cards glued together." There's much more going on inside than most folks might realize.
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Old April 22nd, 2005, 09:51 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Kilgroe
if Panasonic doesn't try to keep P2 prices at least somewhat close to the SD memory they're based on, that consumers will walk on by to the next available technology and P2 will whither and die.
Exactly. Let the consumers walk. Because of the features, the pros will likely accept P2 at the typical "pro" markup. I know I will.

The camera alone is priced at $6k and $10k for the package. According to that pricing and it's feature set, I don't really think there's anything "consumer" about it.

I consider this is a pro camera. I think Panasonic does too. That's why the pricing will be the way it is, and I doubt if it's separation from SD card prices will keep most potential buyers away.

I'd also doubt seeing consumer HDV cams, and a consumer P2 cam soon, just for the reason that the companies want to be able to charge a little more for these features for awhile yet.
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Old April 22nd, 2005, 11:40 PM   #19
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I think realistically for most users, carrying a laptop, having to set it up, waiting for it to start up, batteries for laptop, etc is just such a hassle for the majority of users. (Not to mention how much of a geek i'd look like with a laptop set-up on my local surf break.. the surf community would dis-own me!)

It may be cool for some indoor users but majority of people it won't be. I also think hard drives aren't the best answer either. How tough are hard drives at the moment? Unless they can withstand a reasonable impact it would be quite risky using one. I know, at least for my use, I dont wrap my cameras with cotton wool, they get used in many bumpy situations, ie: inside my water housing, on the beach, in moving cars.

Hard drives could be an option to store used cards on, ie: a portable storage device but not one that mounts on the camera itself. I think P2 cards is the only real answer for most people so hopefully they'll be at a reasonable price soon-ish.
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Old April 23rd, 2005, 01:17 AM   #20
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I'll just keep this brief since I don't want to turn this into a full scale argument... I have a lot of experience in hardware design, embedded systems, CPU architecture, etc... The onboard memory controller in a P2 card is nothing special, in fact it is very, very simple. I might be missing something, but I've read all the descriptions and specs I can get my hands on short of actually attempting to license the P2 format. Actual manufacturing costs are entirely dependent on a multitude of factors and I won't try to speculate. However, not including the flash memory chips themselves, I would be willing to bet real money that actual manufacturing costs of the remainder of a P2 card would be under $15 each in quantities of 10,000 units. It's a standard PCMCIA Type II Cardbus compliant PC card with a quad-channel interleaved memory controller. The storage adapter interface logic is super simple... We can already get the equivalent in USB dongle devices like the 1GB flash I have on my keychain that both Mac and PC systems see automatically as a fully functional HDD and it has the ability to run with encryption, compression along with integrated password security. I'd even be willing to bet the onboard memory controller is an off-the-shelf component just like the SD flash chips as there are many embedded systems that already use high bandwidth, multiple channel memory applications.

Anyway, I've said my piece. People can choose to agree with me or not, I don't really care. Anyone who wants to justify the rediculously high price of Panasonic's P2 card by simply saying it's a "professional" tool obviously has some other issues to work out. But hey, I'm used to people not agreeing with me around here... I got flamed pretty bad here a few months back when I referred to the Sony FX1 as a "toy". If it makes you guys feel more professional and elite to pay 3X more for an off-the-shelf commodity item, then be my guest. $2495 for an 8GB P2 is equatable to Canon releasing their new digital SLR camera and announcing that it will use 2 CF cards simultaneously in a dual channel configuration. But here's the kicker, you can't put in 2 normal CF cards, you have to buy the special Canon card that has 2 CF cards inside a single plastic housing and instead of $120 or so that you would pay for 2 individual 1GB CF cards, you have to buy their special shaped CF duo at $500 for the 2GB version. But that's OK, because "pro" photographers don't mind...

And even with all my complaining, you know what... I will probably still buy at least one of these super-overpriced-rip-off 8GB P2 cards when I buy my HVX200. Not because I won't use my laptop solution (probably will for long program work and within a controlled studio environment), but because I will be buying an underwater housing for the HVX200 and it will see rides on speed boats and jet skis and depths of at least 120ft off the coast of Grand Cayman or Hawaii or maybe Australia. I plan to take it snowboarding and skiing, I might even jump out of a perfectly good airplane with it or dangle it over molten lava. Yes, I'm completely serious about all of this. And even though I do strongly feel that P2 card prices are a joke, if this camera lives up to all the hype, it will still be a bargain when all things are considered. So I'm definitely buying one - I'll probably even pre-order so I can be one of the first to get it. If it is as good as I'm hoping, I'll probably buy a second and sell my DVX100. Video is just a hobby of mine that I use to supplement my animation work and I'm thinking about trying a little indie film in the near future. The animation work is also a hobby that has recently turned into a profitable business for me and I'm currently working on my first animated short film that I'll try to show at some upcoming festivals. I'd like to expand my video work and now the possibility of diving into HD with my own gear with a camera I can afford has got me all excited. And the prospect of placing this camera in an enclosure like the Equinox housing I bought for my DVX is also exciting... To know that I may be able to take my HD where none of my rentals have gone before.
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Old April 23rd, 2005, 01:37 AM   #21
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Jeff,

While you are likely correct about the components of the P2 card being nothing special, I wanted to add that Panasonic stated that the cards going into the P2 module were spec'd to higher speeds with ZERO DEFECTIVITY. You know that we pay a premium price in memory (and other) markets for tighter specs. My experience comes from 25 years in the semiconductor industry and prices are always higher for components that have to be 'top tier' performers. And, the market will determine what we ultimately pay for these cards. If they can't get anyone to buy the P2 at the prices they are charging, then you can bet the price will come down. Just like the room rates being almost double at the area hotels during the NAB dates. I can assure you that the rooms don't magically get nicer during that time period, they're just a premium commodity. Personally, I stayed at a much cheaper place away from the strip and rented a nice car for less than the price of the close-in hotel rooms.

And, since you seem so knowledgable about the innards of a P2 module, I hope you can build a much cheaper alternative when the camera comes out then write a how-to article for the rest of the forum to benefit from. If you've seen the alternative imaging forums here, you'll see that there are many ingenious ways to build a cheaper mousetrap.

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Old April 23rd, 2005, 04:00 AM   #22
 
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Who cares about p2 cards when you can record straight out to any fast enough firewire or usb 2.0 drive? 600 bucks gets you lots of space (much more than 2 cards). Just buy the camera and 2 30 gb drives.
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Old April 23rd, 2005, 04:30 AM   #23
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I care - I'd much rather use P2, but of course, cost/GB will be the stopper for me, so I'm really looking forward to see what's out there in the way of HDD storage. I hope there is a nice solution that clips to the camera, and I don't have to have a belt pack or sit it on a hot shoe (!) or anything stupid like that.

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Old April 23rd, 2005, 10:05 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Kilgroe
Anyone who wants to justify the rediculously high price of Panasonic's P2 card by simply saying it's a "professional" tool obviously has some other issues to work out.
Ridiculously high prices? Sorry, but I think your expectations are somewhat unrealistic. They're practically giving this stuff away. I can't believe how affordable it is, and at $6,000, I wouldn't call the HVX200 "professionally priced" by any stretch. We could point fingers at each other all day long with regard as to which one of us has personal issues to work out, but thankfully this is not the place for that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Kilgroe
I got flamed pretty bad here a few months back when I referred to the Sony FX1 as a "toy".
Well, no wonder... when you post flame-bait such as that, I think you can expect to be flamed. We don't allow that sort of behavior around here, and if I had caught that post of yours in time, I would have removed the "toy" statement which might have saved you from that backlash. Jeff, you can't expect to talk trash on this site about the gear that other folks choose to use. I don't care if it's your "opinion" or not; it's simply undesirable behavior which we do not appreciate. If you want to stick around here, please do not do such a thing again. Thanks in advance.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Kilgroe
If it makes you guys feel more professional and elite to pay 3X more for an off-the-shelf commodity item, then be my guest.
Our more professional and elite members attained that status not by what they paid for their equipment, but rather by their motivation, vision, creativity, skill set and work ethic. Hope this helps,
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Old April 23rd, 2005, 11:03 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesse Bekas
The camera alone is priced at $6k and $10k for the package. According to that pricing and it's feature set, I don't really think there's anything "consumer" about it.

Maybe pro-sumer but certainly not professional. There is a lot more to a professional camera than what this little plastic camcorder is offering. There will always be the CineAltas, Varicams, Dalsas, etc. The HDX200 is a throwaway HD camcorder great for news, docs and lower end commercial production. No high end production will take is as their main camera. And Panasonic knows it very well too, otherwise they could cease the production of the whole pletorhea of higher end models the day they release the HDX200.

And BTW, a $6-10k pricing doesn't make it professional either...:-)
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Old April 23rd, 2005, 03:40 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Jiri Bakala
Maybe pro-sumer but certainly not professional. There is a lot more to a professional camera than what this little plastic camcorder is offering. There will always be the CineAltas, Varicams, Dalsas, etc. The HDX200 is a throwaway HD camcorder great for news, docs and lower end commercial production. No high end production will take is as their main camera. And Panasonic knows it very well too, otherwise they could cease the production of the whole pletorhea of higher end models the day they release the HDX200.

And BTW, a $6-10k pricing doesn't make it professional either...:-)
Aren't news gathering, documentary making, and low end commerical production still professional uses? I believe that "prosumer" is becoming a misnomer for some of these new cams.

$6-10K cost for a camera might not be high-end, but it's not consumer level by any means.

If there's not much of a grey area, if these new cams are at a level where professionals are buying thses cameras for work, and consumers aren't purchasing the equipment towards a hobby (there will always be a few, but probably not a lot), then I think the labels of professional and consumer can stay divided.

When equipment is used mostly in professional situations (i.e., paid gigs), you can expect to see a markup in price for accessories for those pieces (decks, montiors, matte boxes, etc...) and in this case P2 storage.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 12:38 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by Chris Hurd
Ridiculously high prices? Sorry, but I think your expectations are somewhat unrealistic. They're practically giving this stuff away. I can't believe how affordable it is, and at $6,000, I wouldn't call the HVX200 "professionally priced" by any stretch. We could point fingers at each other all day long with regard as to which one of us has personal issues to work out, but thankfully this is not the place for that.
Actually, I agree with all that... With the exception of the P2 media prices. As far as the HVX200 is concerned, if it lives up to the hype or very close, then this camera will be a steal. Like I said before, put me down for one, maybe even two. And yeah, I'll probably buy a few of those P2 cards at those detestable prices. After all, if it lets me record good quality HD in DVCProHD format, even if I spend $25K on the new camera, P2 cards and a whole bunch of other accessories and gear, it's still a great deal compared to anything available now. And it will probably be a great deal at this time next year too, short of maybe Canon releasing an XL3 that records to HDD or flash memory in DVCAM format or something.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Hurd
Well, no wonder... when you post flame-bait such as that, I think you can expect to be flamed. We don't allow that sort of behavior around here, and if I had caught that post of yours in time, I would have removed the "toy" statement which might have saved you from that backlash. Jeff, you can't expect to talk trash on this site about the gear that other folks choose to use. I don't care if it's your "opinion" or not; it's simply undesirable behavior which we do not appreciate. If you want to stick around here, please do not do such a thing again. Thanks in advance.
Actually, I quoted myself out of context in my last post and I would be very surprised if you didn't notice that discussion containing the "FX1 as a toy" reference I was referring to. You were an active participant in several threads on the FX1 at that time, if I recall correctly. I didn't come out and simply call it a toy directly, although I may as well have judging by a few of the responses I received. Essentially, we were all discussing the merits (or lack thereof) of Sony's Cineframe24 and how the 25Mbps HDV format would hold up in various situations and post processing. I ran several of Kaku Ito's clips, that he so generously shared with all of us, through various tests such as converting 60i and CF24 to true 24FPS, trying to isolate problems/solutions for the artifacting on lights in night shots, etc.. I essentially concluded that I would wait for the upcoming Z1 to see if it offered more or perhaps even something else down the road that offered more than HDV. I said that with the FX1's limitations and the nature of HDV, the camera was no more helpful to my workflow and what *I* do and that it may as well be a $3000 toy. Primarily since the footage (especially with fast moving subjects) would be nearly useless for compositing with other footage or CG -- even worse than DV. Well, it seems a few who were buying an FX1 got caught on the "toy" comment, taking it a little too personally, and I didn't hear (read) the end of it until a few days later. I apologized, but still stood by my opinion that this camera would see more use by wealthy, tech-savy soccer-dads than by indie film makers or pro videographers. I still feel that way abou the FX1 and while I don't know if Sony even has demographic data to prove me right or wrong, but I would think that most anyone trying to do something serious with one of the current Sony HDV cameras would be better served with the Z1. So no, my post wasn't flamebait and I wasn't trying to start anything. Actually, this thread is the worst I've ever been... I'm actually a moderator on one of the primary forums for HP zd7000/8000 series notebook PCs and if that has taught me anything, then I think I have went well beyond my cue to back off. So without directly realizing it, I probably have overstepped my bounds in this thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Hurd
Our more professional and elite members attained that status not by what they paid for their equipment, but rather by their motivation, vision, creativity, skill set and work ethic. Hope this helps,
I do recognize this, but I have also seen enough evidence here to show that not everyone falls into this category. Just like any other forum such as this, there's always a handful of individuals participating that belive they are a "professional" simply because they spent the money on professional tools. I also don't think it's very productive for people to justify a company's price gouging a consumer base solely on the merits of an item being a professional tool when it's really a commodity item. All things considered, when figuring the HVX200 and a few P2 cards together at the announced prices, we're getting a LOT for our money. Probalby more bang for the buck than at any other time in the history of "prosumer" video. That still doesn't mean we shouldn't be able to cry foul over a pricing anomaly regarding a certain component or accessory.

Anyway, I know that I have said more than enough. Agree with me or not that is your right. But I'm not trying to start a fight or post flamebait, only my opinion. I've said what's on my brain several times in this thread and probably several times too many. If I have upset anyone, I'm sorry and I'll try not to do it again. If I do, let me know and I'll up the dosage on my meds or something...

Anyway, thanks for reading.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 01:03 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by Greg Boston
And, since you seem so knowledgable about the innards of a P2 module, I hope you can build a much cheaper alternative when the camera comes out then write a how-to article for the rest of the forum to benefit from. If you've seen the alternative imaging forums here, you'll see that there are many ingenious ways to build a cheaper mousetrap.
Yeah, someone may very well be working on a P2 solution right now and I think I'm going to do a little research of my own this week anyway. I'd like to see if I can get any information from Panasonic about licensing of the P2 format and anything else they can tell me about who (if anyone) has already licensed P2 for manufacture.

If licensing is fairly reasonable/inexpensive or if certain preliminary information is available without much cost or requirement for too many NDAs, I my dig into it a bit. I have had components manufactured before and if I see a potential to license P2 and contract a chipmaker to manufacture where there isn't a whole lot of early competition, it may be something to seriously consider.

A lot of "if"s there, but it never hurts to ask a few questions and this would not be an entirely new experience for me. For all we know, P2 could be the next "miniDV" or it could be a total flop.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 06:00 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Euritt
the price point of this camera dictates that it's in the so-called prosumer market, not the pro market... this rig needs to compete directly with hdv marketshare, in order to make the most money for panasonic.

in the absence of hd hard drive recording capability, p2 pricing will be key to the success of this camera.
Hi Dan,

Actually it doesn't need to compete directly with HDV. HDV is a prosumer product and this is a Professional product, designed from the ground up as such. It is such a serious upgrade to HDV, it isn't even funny. There is nothing that HDV does that this camera doesn't do better.

It does have the 1394 output so that it can feed an HDD device like Firestore, which is also under development. This can help you get past the shorter times in current P2 workflow until those are longer, but one of the things you should think about is how to transfer during the shoot so that when you are done, you have a hard drive of data, or if you are really compulsive 2, one as a backup.

Best regards,

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Old April 24th, 2005, 06:07 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Bakala
Maybe pro-sumer but certainly not professional. There is a lot more to a professional camera than what this little plastic camcorder is offering.
Prosumer is a contractionof a consumer camera that is turned into a professional caera with the adddition of a couple of features. The HVX200 does not have, nor will it have ever a consumer counterpart. The DVX100 never had a consumer counterpart. These cameras were designed by the Professional Broadcast Group with features designed for the professional customer, people that get paid for making images for a living, be that news, docos, reality shows, wedding videos or indie films.

Hope that helps,

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