HDTV proliferation

[Steve Gibby]

A new survey from Panasonic shows that one in every four U. S. households either own or plan to own an HDTV set by the end of 2006.

Link: http://www.digitalproducer.com/artic...e.jsp?id=36377

With the multiplication of HDTV channels and the penetration of HDTV into households, there will obviously be increased demand for HDTV content. Coupled with the release of the HVX200, good content producers now have 1) an increasing market for their HDTV programs 2) an affordable acquisition vehicle that produces footage that will probably be acceptable to most HDTV networks.

2006 is shaping up to be an interesting year, don't you think?!

[Steve Connor]

And when Sony launch the PS3 this year, that's going to put a lot of Blu Ray HD players into peoples homes too.

[Shannon Rawls]

The PS3 is going to be a Blu-Ray player???

- ShannonRawls.com

[Jeff Kilgroe]

Originally Posted by Shannon Rawls

The PS3 is going to be a Blu-Ray player???

- ShannonRawls.com

Yes. And probably one of the most affordable player options, at least for the first few months after the BluRay roll out.

Microsoft had originally planned to use BluRay or HD-DVD with the XBOX360 (they had not committed to either format), but as the releases of the two new disc formats seem to keep getting perpetually delayed, Microsoft standardized on a DVD drive last spring. As of this time last year, we were being told that HD-DVD would be available 2nd qurter '05 and BluRay would be no later than end of 3rd quarter. Now we're looking at BluRay in about April (maybe) and HD-DVD at about the same time (maybe).

[Kevin Shaw]

Originally Posted by Steve Gibby

2006 is shaping up to be an interesting year, don't you think?!

I expect that the introduction of mainstream HD DVD players will spur a large jump in demand for HD videography, such that it could quickly become the desired standard for anyone spending any significant money on video services. We've got HD cameras and we've got HD editing solutions; give us the delivery mechanism and things could heat up in a real hurry.

I'd also expect that by the end of 2006, most of the people who have been skeptical about investing in HD gear so far will have changed their tune. Look for a lot of used SD cameras up for sale next year...

[Boyd Ostroff]

Originally Posted by Shannon Rawls

The PS3 is going to be a Blu-Ray player???

I read an article which said they are basically going to "give you" a BluRay disk player with the PS3 in order to get a lot of them out into the market as quickly as possible. They said that when consumer BluRay players hit the shelves they're expected to cost around $1,000 but I think the PS3 is expected to come in around $400.

[Dan Euritt]

in-stat market research predicts that 21% of all tv households will have at least one hdtv by the end of next year... but if you read your video business magazine, in-stat also sez "the intense media interest in next-generation optical disc formats is selling lots of magazines but will not have much impact on the hollywood "packaged goods" business until late in the decade."

as videographers, we need to be concerned about delivery formats, not tv sets, because nobody pays to watch content that they can't see.

some of these dvinfo.net forums have gotten themselves all wrapped up in what amounts to a slowly fading business model, as evidenced by flat dvd sales growth, and a hollywood movie business that's been declining for the last three years in a row.

meanwhile, a whole lot of advertising $$$ have been re-routed to alternative delivery methods over the internet, with things like cell phones also lurking on the horizon... all of that content can be handled with the sd cameras that we have in our possession right now, and there is money to be made in those markets.

[Steve Gibby]

Originally Posted by Dan Euritt

in-stat market research predicts that 21% of all tv households will have at least one hdtv by the end of next year... but if you read your video business magazine, in-stat also sez "the intense media interest in next-generation optical disc formats is selling lots of magazines but will not have much impact on the hollywood "packaged goods" business until late in the decade."

The Panasonic survey says 26% and In-stat says 21%. It’s probably safe to assume that the actual penetration rate by the end of 2006 will be somewhere in that range. In-stat’s reference to “Hollywood packaged goods”, is referring to film studio after-marketing of feature films on high definition optical disc. Feature films are obviously a large source of potential media to be delivered on hi-def optical discs, but there are many other genres of media that will be delivered on hi-def optical, including business videos, event videos, special interest videos, instructional videos, and many more. If I’m not mistaken, DVD achieved the fastest market penetration of any display medium in history. It’s feasible that the penetration rate for hi-def optical discs will be much more rapid than projected.

Originally Posted by Dan Euritt

as videographers, we need to be concerned about delivery formats, not tv sets, because nobody pays to watch content that they can't see.

There’s a wider diversity of members of DV Info Net than just videographers. I’ll use myself as an example. For national television programs I function regularly as an executive producer, producer, director, editor, scriptwriter, syndicator, DP, and videographer. On tiny projects I may wear all of those hats. On large projects I may wear only one of those hats. I’m very concerned about “tv sets”. Each of the 12 broadcast and cable networks I contribute to are also very concerned about “tv sets”. Their viewers do indeed pay to watch the network/channel content. And those networks and channels do indeed pay my company to produce quality content for them. In my post that opened this thread I remarked that there is an increase in HDTV content demand. The networks and myself are very aware of the potential ancillary income streams from hi-def optical disc sales of television programs. It has been a viable revenue stream in the standard definition business model and should be the same looking forward in the h-def business model. That said, optical disc sales of programs have always been just one of many revenue streams available, and should be looking forward.

Originally Posted by Dan Euritt

some of these dvinfo.net forums have gotten themselves all wrapped up in what amounts to a slowly fading business model, as evidenced by flat dvd sales growth, and a hollywood movie business that's been declining for the last three years in a row.

DVD sales growth was the fastest of any video delivery medium in history. The penetration rate is enormous. It has flattened recently for what may be two factors: 1) DVD players are so inexpensive and have been available for so long, that there is a natural plateau in penetration rate 2) news for the past year about the pending distribution of hi-def optical has created a new “we’ll wait for a hi-def player to go with our new HDTV set” mentality among consumers. The Hollywood movie business has indeed been declining, but as mentioned above, that is only one of the content delivery sources for hi-def optical. Sales of HDTV sets and affordable consumer HD camcorders are brisk. It seems like consumers and small businesses that are willing to spend for an HDTV, an HD camcorder, and desktop HD editing software, should be willing to spend another small amount for a hi-def optical recorder/player to complete their system.

Originally Posted by Dan Euritt

meanwhile, a whole lot of advertising $$$ have been re-routed to alternative delivery methods over the internet, with things like cell phones also lurking on the horizon... all of that content can be handled with the sd cameras that we have in our possession right now, and there is money to be made in those markets.

Alternative delivery methods (VOD, cell phone streaming, etc.) are very viable ancillary revenue streams that EVERY production entity, whether they are a Hollywood studio, television network, or tiny production house, should be paying close attention to. Producers should be planning for every feasible way to maximize the revenue potential of their productions. SD cameras have been great, and will continue to be used for some time. But SD-only cameras and editing systems are useless for satisfying the increasing demand for HDTV programming and it’s ancillary hi-def revenue streams. The new generation of affordable hi-def cameras each has the ability to shoot in SD if needed. Each of them also give producers the important option to give their footage and programs “long legs” by shooting and editing in hi-def, and simply doing HD and SD masters of the programs as needed. You don’t have that forward-looking option if you’re still using an SD-only camera and editing system.

Why own a single-blade pocketknife when there are affordable multi-blade Swiss Army knives now available?

[Dan Euritt]

Originally Posted by Steve Gibby

In-stat’s reference to “Hollywood packaged goods”, is referring to film studio after-marketing of feature films on high definition optical disc.

that is not correct, the article clearly refers to the ongoing use of the current sd dvd's that we are now using, and it clearly states that the current dvd marketplace will not be changing to hd anytime soon... the quote was very clear on that.

you cannot project an hd dvd adoption rate based on what happened when sd dvd's took over for videotape, because it's two entirely different situations... i don't recall seeing in-stat or any media publication making any predictions of that nature, that might back up what you are saying.

you also mis-interpreted what i said about dvd sales growth... yes, dvd player sales are flat, but what i was referring to are the sales of dvd discs, aka, hollywood packaged goods... that market is not expanding like it used to, because people are moving to other forms of media consumption... which is why it's the delivery formats that we need to be concerned with, not hdtv's.

the percentage of people on dvinfo.net who are working in the tv business will be very minor compared to the overall videographer population out here, so the vast majority of us will not benefit from new formats like hdv, until there is a delivery method for the format.

talking about hdtv penetration is not really relevant... what we need to know is what the delivery format is, and when it will reach critical mass... and we should not be ignoring alternative delivery formats.

[Ash Greyson]

The build will be slow as the industry begins to educate people and phase out SD... and by slow I mean a decade... I think in 5 years we will be in a place to start delivering HD en masse, then it will beging to catch on as the cost of the players, monitors and media approach the price of similar SD equipment.

Remember that of the 20%-25% of people expected to have an HDTV by next year most all of those will be middle to higher income people getting TVs 42" or larger. MOST people have a 32" SD set or smaller and will not upgrade until they can get a similar size for the same money... many people do not have space for a big TV. It is also worth noting that TV, VHS, DVD, etc. etc. etc. really needs to bust the $300 mark to begin really taking off. For HDTV I think it will be $499...and not a penny more. Then you have the question... does HD really benefit a TV under 42" for average Joe?

The other thing people fail to realize is that right now, as evidenced in an article I linked in another thread, only HALF the people who own an HDTV have even seen a frame of HD on it! And half that havent... THINK THEY HAVE!!! Most people have yet to see a good digital SD signal...

HD is happening but slower than most on the bleeding edge seem to think...



ash =o)

[Ash Greyson]

Listen to Dan... CONVENIENCE is dominating the market place... MP3s are compressed and dont sound NEAR as good as SACD or DVD-A...heck even as CDs for that matter but the consumer has spoken LOUD AND CLEAR that MP3 is "good enough" and much more convenient. Anyone wanna bet me that more people will be watching video from Ipod type devices and cell phones than from ALL HD sources combined for the next few years and beyond?



ash =o)

[Walter Graff]

"A new survey from Panasonic shows that one in every four U. S. households either own or plan to own an HDTV set by the end of 2006."

I guess Panasonic hasn't seen actual numbers reported by the folks that sell TVs, but if Panasonic says such a ting, it's a great marketing scheme to get folks to buy their TVs.

[Kevin Shaw]

As videographers the pertinent question isn't what delivery formats will be popular, it's about acquisition. If you want to be sure to be able to meet the needs of all potential customers, it's a given that sooner or later you're going to want to have the capability to record in HD. Once you have that capability any concerns about adoption rate statistics become secondary, since the best customers will expect HD acquisition regardless of the intended primary output. That's where the statistics are misleading, because what percentage of people own HDTVs won't be what determines the percentage of video projects shot in HD.

SD will be relevant for a long time for delivery purposes, but it's relevance for acquisition could drop off quickly in the next couple of years or so.

[R Geoff Baker]

... will 20% or even 10% of households in the US have an HDTV set by end of 2006. I doubt that 10% of US households could even tell you what HDTV was by end of 2006 -- it is dreaming in technicolor to believe otherwise, IMHO.

The survey referenced spoke to 1,000 people in a nation of 300,000,000 ... and tossed in the softball and ultimately meaningless option 'planned to own' -- what does that mean? I might plan to own one by year end, but not get around to buying until 2010, I guess!

HDTV might be a real market, and even a significant one sometime soon -- but it won't be found in 20% of households before the next decade.

JMHO

[Glenn Gipson]

It’s gonnna be at least 10 - 15 years before HDTV really begins to creep onto the market. I know people who are JUST NOW getting DVD players, and VHS has just started to be phased out by retailers and distributors. And then there is the issue of benefit. DVD had a substantial benefit over VHS which HD DVDs will not have over DVDs. A realistic image of the video market is not to be had at the most expensive section of Best Buy, it's to be had at the sale section of WalMart. When HDTV sets are going for $299.00, and HD DVD players are going for $150.00, then things will just be BEGINNING to roll for HDTV.