http://www.crn.com/hardware/205604377

These new prices are attractive, especially considering the free movies offered.

It shows they're willing to put up perhaps a long, protracted fight.

I'm not for any side myself; I just like good deals.

I'm not for any side myself; I just like good deals.

I'm with you, plus I just want to see someone win so we can move on and I can start buying DVDs again! :)

Are they reloading, or selling off excess inventory before it becomes worthless??? Either way, this move makes sense for them.

Dang. I paid $307 for the Toshiba A20 a few months ago. Now the equivalent player is $174.

It's a great player, though, especially the upscaler, which is better than I expected.

I think the only way the HD-DVD format gets saved is if someone comes out with a dual-format player for $300 or less. That is, I don't see HD-DVD winning this anymore -- I think their best hope is co-existence.

My personal opinion is that they know they have now lost - this is exactly that - clear the stock and move on....

I think they need to start attacking some new markets as well. With HD camcorders poised to have a stellar sales year they need to be working with software and hardware providers to push HD DVD as the way to view not only movie content but your own home made (read porn..j/k) collections.

They could deliver a free download that takes AVCHD video and turns it into something that plays easily on HD DVD players. Come on $150 is nothing for something with these specs. I don't regret my HD DVD purchase and I'll continue to buy movies for the right price.

I agree with Dave -- blowout the inventory time. Too bad they never made a recordable product for us. IMO, they blew it.

IMHO, Toshiba Europe simple idiots:
1.Price of HDDVD players for european citizens cost to 2-3 times more than for US.
2.Every european owner of HDV/AVCHD 1080i50 camcorder is potential buyer HDDVD player, but Toshiba Europe not released firmware to support 50Hz HD/HDV/AVCHD content (25p/50i)!!!
Authoring soft like Ulead DMF6+ and Nero8 able to do HDDVD with HD 25p/50i content, but toshiba can not release firmware update more than 15 months!!!

P.S. I'm sorry for word "idiots", but can not find equal for loosers.

Even with heavy discounts, why would anyone want technology which clearly seems like it will be obsolete soon?

Their DVD library will be scant with most majors siding with Blu Ray.

HD-DVD technology incl HDi is better than rotten bluray discs with long promised java-BDlive.
HD-DVD is an evolution and bridge between optical and digital download with affordable price for USA consumer ;)

Bluray w/o pressure from HDDVD will be 25GB disc only with bad coded mpeg2 (see tread on avsforum about sony's hardware "pro coder" ).

HDDVD from start is solid technology with new feature through
firmware update (hddvd player can operate as network media player and play HD content from USB flash, hdd)
New feature of BD players only with new hardware - just buy new generation player instead of free firmware update:D

I wish Toshiba would release a firmware to play raw .TS files burned on a DVD-R.

A $150 dollar player that did that would make it a pretty awesome tool for HDV Camcorder folks.

[And the .TS file could be in the future be copied back onto a computer and re-authored in whatever format you wish ie. Blu-Ray disc etc.]

It would be cheaper than what a AveL Link Player cost a year and half ago.

HD-DVD technology incl HDi is better than rotten bluray discs with long promised java-BDlive.
HD-DVD is an evolution and bridge between optical and digital download with affordable price for USA consumer ;)

Bluray w/o pressure from HDDVD will be 25GB disc only with bad coded mpeg2 (see tread on avsforum about sony's hardware "pro coder" ).

HDDVD from start is solid technology with new feature through
firmware update (hddvd player can operate as network media player and play HD content from USB flash, hdd)
New feature of BD players only with new hardware - just buy new generation player instead of free firmware update:D

The Sony Playstation 3 can already do all of the things you mentioned. It gets firmware updates every one or two months that add or improve its functionality. It's already a network media center with built-in Ethernet and Wi-Fi. It was just upgraded to Blu-ray profile 1.1 and will be be upgraded to 2.0 (also called BD Live) with another firmware update later this year. With the PS3 it's NOT necessary to buy new hardware to take advantage of new features. A quick and simple firmware update is all that's needed. HD-DVD did indeed start with a finalized specification while the Blu-ray specification was still in development. HD-DVD is good, solid technology, but it's not "superior" in any way. It simply had a good head-start over Blu-ray. Now, Blu-ray is catching up fast on the features, and HD-DVD rapidly failing, primarily because of marketing blunders by Toshiba and the HD-DVD consortium. As for file formats, HD-DVD and Blu-ray both use exactly the same codecs, so there's no advantage or superiority for either format in that regard.

And just for the record, I own both formats. I have a Playstation 3 and a Toshiba HD-XA2, which is a fabulous machine! I'd have been happy with whichever format ultimately won. I always suspected it would be Blu-ray, but never expected it to come to a head in quite this way. HD-DVD is gasping its last breath. It's time to bury it and move on.

Oh man this is funny ...

Downfall of HD DVD

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=friS4OOcdgQ

Oh man this is funny ...

Downfall of HD DVD

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=friS4OOcdgQ

Oh thank you, it hurts to laugh that hard.

Gahahahahaha. That video definitely sums it up. =D

there still is a market for HD-DVD, by simply replacing the DVD.
Same price for disk and players (apparently we are already close to this) and mass producing burners. they killed the product by not producing burners.
everybody of us would be recording SD or HD video on HD-DVD if only we could burn a disk.
Plants producing DVD players and DVD and DVD-R would be too happy to be saved by simple reconversion to HD-DVD. just change the laser head and the decoder chip and you can continue to produce high value product instead having the perspective to fight blu-ray by decreasing prices and benefits margins on obsolete DVD products.
The guys at Toshiba really need some marketing refreshement training..

there still is a market for HD-DVD, by simply replacing the DVD.
Same price for disk and players (apparently we are already close to this) and mass producing burners. they killed the product by not producing burners.
everybody of us would be recording SD or HD video on HD-DVD if only we could burn a disk.
Plants producing DVD players and DVD and DVD-R would be too happy to be saved by simple reconversion to HD-DVD. just change the laser head and the decoder chip and you can continue to produce high value product instead having the perspective to fight blu-ray by decreasing prices and benefits margins on obsolete DVD products.
The guys at Toshiba really need some marketing refreshement training..


Giroud,

It's not that simple. And it won't work even if they did it. Let me address first your workaround.

Even if they did what you suggested, we as videographers, will burn our disc based on the players our clients own. Not on the burner we have. There are many wedding videographers as well that those in the porn industry who simply won't use HD-DVD even if the burner is dual purpose if the client is BD.

And why would the clients likely will own a BD only player? Because first and foremost, they will be buying movies in this format. So, if they get married or have an event, they would want their discs be burned in BD, not HD-DVD. And BD burners can be backward compatible with DVD or today's standard, so HD-DVD has no monopoly on backward compatibility.

In short, leveraging HD-DVD burner strategy would not have worked.

And the reason for the switch and likely death of HD-DVD is not the wedding videographer, or the porn industry, or the technological advantage of BD, or because the PS3 had BD alone. These are steps that contributed to it. But it was the deciding variable or the critical success factor. It was the content in terms of movies that is playable that pushed the death button against HD-DVD. And Warner was the big one that tipped the scales.

This youtube video is funny but they were arguing based on past history w/c was not the critical success factor that will tilt it this time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePcCPtryCfU

They forgot that the Internet now neutralized the advantage of porn in discs through streaming. They also ignored the fact two other things. That due to the revenues they generate, the porn industry can switch as easily to the other camp because the camera stays the same. Only the burner and the disc changed. And the cost is a pittance. It isn't as if they were changing from a beta camera to a VHS camera w/c would cost more. If they bought an FX1 3 years ago, this camera would still turn out HD video and it can still be burned to BD or HD-DVD. But why would you burn for the latter if the entire market is already BD.

Also, they forgot that in the early days, video rental was in its infancy. It was an unknown and unproven revenue stream. In that respect, porn has shown the way you can make money in this new market. But today, after 30 years, porn isn't just the big revenue maker. The regular movies in DVD has shown it is a force to reckon with. And this is why when Warner shifted, it basically killed all hopes for HD-DVD. Even if porn decided to go HD-DVD solely, they won't change the landscape because the non-porn industry is also a force to reckon, and probably is bigger than them. And porn being smart, and a risk taker, this time will have no trouble shifting to BD. The burner and the software are very small cost to shift. But the content they hold is more valuable to both BD and HD-DVD.

Now, I wonder how those two blokes in the video who were laughing about hd-dvd to be the sure winner with surety and finality would feel 6 months from now (heck even now). It would be nice to see their faces when hd-dvd folds and the porn industry shifts.

Ok, so it looks like blu-ray has the majority of studio support, and it is likely to get worse as Paramount is rumored to be thinking of switching to blu-ray only too.

But then Apple TV comes out, with deals with ALL the major studios to allow downloading of content directly to one's TV.

So doesn't this take away a good deal of blu-ray's "victory"? What kind of consumer is going to shell out for a blu-ray player when he/she can get an Apple TV for the same price and just download the movies they want? Answer: videophiles. Niche market. Rentals are probably going to be mostly downloads in the future.

So how does HD DVD turn this in their favor? By going after a different market -- content producers (like us).

As Girouard pointed out, HD DVD flubbed by not making burners, among other things. (Though Macs have been capable of burning HD DVD content onto regular DVD-Rs for a while now).

What HD DVD needs to do now is make themselves THE format for smaller content producers like wedding videographers, etc. Come out with inexpensive burners, software, etc. Then continue to sell their inexpensive players to the masses and hope to be the perfect complement to the Apple TV (and similar download devices).

IN other words, forget about the studios, because they are going downloads anyway. Try to become the format of choice for other producers.

quote : "It's not that simple"
In fact , i think they proved it is that simple. They just focus on these big studios that are not making choice. they just follow the winner, even if that means to change its mind every 6 month, signing agreement with both camp etc...
As VHS and MP3 proved, the choice is with the consumer.
Both HD-DVD et Blu-ray ignored the consumer until now. That was just a talk between movie majors and them and that it is why both are a failure until now.
DVD industry started to fly the day where burners started to be available to everybody. MP3 started to live when players (that are actually recorder at first) were available.
Zillion of MP3 players and DVD burners have been sold without asking to anybody from the disc or movie industry, and yes , there was some issue from illegal copy, but until now sale of music and movie still makes lots of money.
Even if Blu-ray wins over HD-DVD, war is not over. They will then need to win over consumer and DVD and Apple TV and internet etc...

Even if Blu-ray wins, at the price it is currently, i will not burn video on their burners and disks, it is too expensive.
i will use what everybody already has or can get, a DVD.

Just a friendly reminder from the management.... discussions of the adult film industry usually end up getting edited or closed.

What kind of consumer is going to shell out for a blu-ray player when he/she can get an Apple TV for the same price and just download the movies they want?

What kind of consumer is going to shell out for Apple TV when they can get a slick game machine with internet download capability and a built-in Blu-ray player for a few bucks more? Reports are that Apple TV sales have been far short of the 1 million units predicted by the end of 2007, while the number of people with Blu-ray capable devices in the US is closing in on 2 million. I can't think of anyone I know who would pay $229-329 to watch downloaded movies on their TV when they can just watch them on their computer, but I do know people who are buying and watching Blu-ray movies.

It may be that HD movie discs won't readily replace SD DVDs in the foreseeable future, but to the extent they do Blu-ray is currently the best option - because it's the only solution which is fully developed. HD-DVD is doomed for our purposes without readily available burners, which should have shipped a long time ago. Blu-ray burners are widely available at faster speeds with higher capacity discs, and it's becoming apparent Blu-ray is the preferred format for both movie studios and consumers.

HD-DVD might still be able to pull off an upset if they get their act together this year in a big way, but that's looking less and less likely with each passing day. Truckloads of cheap players mean nothing if we can't deliver content for them and the format appears in danger of imminent demise, which makes it difficult to recommend to customers. I don't mention HD-DVD and haven't had anyone ask me about it, but interest in Blu-ray is definitely spreading.

quote : "It's not that simple"
In fact , i think they proved it is that simple. They just focus on these big studios that are not making choice. they just follow the winner, even if that means to change its mind every 6 month, signing agreement with both camp etc...

As VHS and MP3 proved, the choice is with the consumer.
Both HD-DVD et Blu-ray ignored the consumer until now. That was just a talk between movie majors and them and that it is why both are a failure until now.


No. It's not simple. There is such a thing as market driven and technology driven strategy. In this case, there is still no market because it's supposed to be the technology that should drive it. It was obvious the market wasn't willing to budge. Nobody will buy burners too, except maybe the porn industry w/c was willing to experiment. But then again, there are not much buyers of players to cause a irreversible momentum like it did 30 years ago. The porn market was just as happy d/ling it or streaming it, and for a lower cost. So, the market could not lead. Because the consumers were waiting for the standard to be set. Everybody was too smart now to be gamble on a standard that might get obsolete in a year.

Remember, powerful as the porn industry is, so is the mainstream video today. It wasn't like that 30 years ago, where the rental and video market wasn't formed yet. Now, the regular mainstream market has its own voice and numbers. The porn industry, no longer can lead on its own. And even if they chose HD-DVD, the mainstream did not move this time. No, the porn industry didn't budge the entire industry to change to HD-DVD.

So we have a state where everybody is waiting. It was only when Warner, who holds a huge chunk of movie titles that everything changed.



DVD industry started to fly the day where burners started to be available to everybody. MP3 started to live when players (that are actually recorder at first) were available.


I beg to disagree. The DVD movies that you buy weren't burned. They were stamped. Even pirated once were stamped.

The case of the mp3 is different. It was the medium for transfer in the late 90s (where the Net was just expanding) and early 2000s.

But by this time, a cd-rdisc for mp3 is too big in physical size, but too small in capacity. A flashcard is smaller, lighter, easier to . Also, if I remember, DVD discs weren't the medium for mp3s in the early years (I know because I wrote a paper on that in my graduate course in 1999). It was CD-R. And we have had cd-r burner for years. There wasn't dvd-r burners then as the -R and +R was still an issue too at that time.


Zillion of MP3 players and DVD burners have been sold without asking to anybody from the disc or movie industry, and yes , there was some issue from illegal copy, but until now sale of music and movie still makes lots of money.


You got it! But most mp3s were burned in CD-R discs, not DVD in the early years. DVD burners were expensive and there was the battle of the +R and -R w/c took a bit to be resolved.

But then again, the DVD discs were not burned. They were stamped. And they did make lots of money for movies. Again, take a look at your copy of a legit movie. It is not burned. It is stamped.

And the burners flourished because cost went down, and there was a need to replace the 1.44mb floppy disc. The cd-r was the one that was used often, not dvd-Rs due to the cost of DVD blanks vs cd-r blanks (w/c were just U$0.15 each). But now, it's more convenient to use flash disc. A 4gb FD costs about U$40 now. 2gb is about U$20.



Even if Blu-ray wins over HD-DVD, war is not over. They will then need to win over consumer and DVD and Apple TV and internet etc...

That is true. But at least, we are dealing with BD vs Apple's internet downloadable movies. Not BD vs HD-DVD w/c are both disc standards w/c is causing the bigger problem overall.


The BD vs Apple concept is another story. That is a sociological thing. A gamble that Apple's NET based movie viewing (a la ipod) vs those who think discs still have a place.

But again, this is a technology push, not a market push. Each one is banking on a future that is hard to foresee and is not yet formed. Many analyst still believe that though online streaming or d/l is becoming the norm, there is still no substitute of having a physical disc or some smallish storage for watching a movie.

Is this a correct call? We don't know. Time will tell. But for sure, the era of DVD is over. It is HD now. Personally, I still think there is room for a disc storage of movies or owns personal videos. There is something to be said about having to pull it off the shelf if you want to watch a movie or see your wedding video, compared to turning on your PC or Airbook and logging in to watch it.



Even if Blu-ray wins, at the price it is currently, i will not burn video on their burners and disks, it is too expensive.
i will use what everybody already has or can get, a DVD.


OK, now your are getting it. It was never burned before except for those in the home. But that is few and far in-between because of the cost of the disc. In our part of the world, you can get a pirated dvd copy of a movie stamped, not burned for U$0.75. It comes with a nice case and it has nice labels on the disc and the case. The cost of the DVD-R disc is U$0.50 and I don't have the material in the first place, no label, no box. It's easier to just buy the stamped DVD disc.

What I am saying here, is that BD or DVD, or HD-DVD, the burner is not the tipping point, especially for the movie production industry. It will be stamped because it is faster and more durable to stamp it. Cheaper too if run in big numbers.

And burning for own use will not move either standard. Even if you decide to pirate BD or HD-DVD disc, the cost of the disc, the time it takes to burn it is too long and too high. If you can copy a movie in 10 min with a burner, you can only do 6 in 1 hour. 60 pcs in 10 hours. Not a good way of mass production for piracy or even for a legal entity to duplicate movies. Even if you daisy chain drives (w/c are still expensive), you still can't produce thousands of copies in a day unless you have 50 or so burners. Stamping it is faster and cheaper.

As a wedding shooter, I want the industry to pick a standard. Why? Because it simplifies my output. Even if the burner is capable of both standards, the difference in size of discs might affect how much I can put in features or menus. I don't have to master 2 kinds of menus or output. It also affects my ability to get supplies of discs. In the early days, it was very hard to get +R discs DVD blanks. I don't want to deal with that.

What is certain now is this -- with BD basically winning, we can now deal with the issues of lowering costs of drives, players, etc. How Apple is to play its own game vs disc media is another topic. At least from the disc camp, the complexity and confusion is about over.

And burning for own use will not move either standard. Even if you decide to pirate BD or HD-DVD disc, the cost of the disc, the time it takes to burn it is too long and too high. If you can copy a movie in 10 min with a burner, you can only do 6 in 1 hour. 60 pcs in 10 hours. Not a good way of mass production for piracy or even for a legal entity to duplicate movies. Even if you daisy chain drives (w/c are still expensive), you still can't produce thousands of copies in a day unless you have 50 or so burners. Stamping it is faster and cheaper.



a multi-target burner is cheap. buy a couple 10 target dvd burners, you can multiply your output by 20x. 120 disc output an hour is profitable. I have a small home based business, I have a 3 target robotic dvd burner, I stick in a 100 discs, and it does all the work. the people pirating discs have better equipment than me.

What kind of consumer is going to shell out for Apple TV when they can get a slick game machine with internet download capability and a built-in Blu-ray player for a few bucks more? Reports are that Apple TV sales have been far short of the 1 million units predicted by the end of 2007, while the number of people with Blu-ray capable devices in the US is closing in on 2 million. I can't think of anyone I know who would pay $229-329 to watch downloaded movies on their TV when they can just watch them on their computer, but I do know people who are buying and watching Blu-ray movies.

It may be that HD movie discs won't readily replace SD DVDs in the foreseeable future, but to the extent they do Blu-ray is currently the best option - because it's the only solution which is fully developed. HD-DVD is doomed for our purposes without readily available burners, which should have shipped a long time ago. Blu-ray burners are widely available at faster speeds with higher capacity discs, and it's becoming apparent Blu-ray is the preferred format for both movie studios and consumers.

HD-DVD might still be able to pull off an upset if they get their act together this year in a big way, but that's looking less and less likely with each passing day. Truckloads of cheap players mean nothing if we can't deliver content for them and the format appears in danger of imminent demise, which makes it difficult to recommend to customers. I don't mention HD-DVD and haven't had anyone ask me about it, but interest in Blu-ray is definitely spreading.

Assuming if the HD-DVD camps somehow makes a last pitch effort, take a big, big loss by introducing low cost HD-DVD burners say for U$200, can that sway the overall market?

From the standpoint of a wedding videographer, why would I buy a U$200 or even a U$100 HD-DVD burner if my clients have BD players?

From the standpoint of porn, why insist on HD-DVD if the majority of the players are BD.

This is one time where it is no longer a technology push, but a market pull. The market now will determine the standard w/c is acceptable.

Ok, another scenario, the players are dual capable. But wouldn't that bloat the cost of the player? And if you want to watch movies now, if there' s more BD movies to be had, then I'd go for a lower cost BD player than a dual one. If I get married or buy porn, I expect the discs to be in BD format.

This is why the Warner decision was the tipping point. Nobody would move for over a year. Everybody was just posturing. There were many problems in the pushing of each technology. But it was never about technology. It was content. And the critical content was mainstream movie. Not porn. Not our own wedding videos, or personal videos, but regular mainstream movies.

Even Apple knows this. It's about the mainstream movies. Yes, they have their own agenda about a discless device (PC) like the Air notebook they just launched, but even they know that the tipping point is the movie content. Their only difference is how it should be delivered or presented to the user.

So, make all the HD-DVD or BD burners that one can. But that is not the tipping point or the Critical Sucess Factor (CSF). HD-DVD can make a play for that. But I doubt if it will succeed. As you said, the probability of success is slipping by as each day passes.

If there is any new battle to be waged now, it will be BD vs downloadable video. It's no longer BD vs HD-DVD.

Nice analysis, Mel.

If there is any new battle to be waged now, it will be BD vs downloadable video. It's no longer BD vs HD-DVD.

Downloads will take more and more share as time goes on, but it will never kill packaged media.

1) Packaged media makes the better gift. It's tangible, and even grandma can play it.

2) Disc players have near 100% saturation. Broadband is much lower, even after 13 years of the Internet saturating news stories. And the FCC rates everything above 256k as broadband. I can't even view YouTube videos in real time on my "broadband" connection.

3) TCO. Total Cost of Ownership. With a disc, I throw it on my shelf. There are no additional costs. With a download, it eats disc space. To move it or back it up takes time and effort. As my hardware evolves, I have to manage and maintain it. One more worry in a busy life.

4) DRM. If the media is tied to certain machines, I lose my purchases if those machines die.

5) Fear of loss. I'm lazy. I didn't back it up. My drive failed. Good bye media. As long as my house doesn't catch fire, my discs are safe - and my homeowner's policy covers my discs if they're stolen or lost in a fire.

6) Portability. Until I can store everything on my PMP with HDMI output, my downloads are locked in my hard drive at home. With discs I can loan them, borrow them and bring them to friend's houses to watch. I can even toss it in my laptop or portable disc player. As long as the screen is bigger than the disc, the disc player is already an efficient size.

7) Availability. I can get discs from the local rental store, Netflix, Best Buy, Wal-Mart or even 7-eleven. My library lends discs for free. (Cool ones too, like Elephant Man and Eraserhead.)

Download market share has nowhere to go but up! But physical packaged media is here to stay. BD (or whatever the dominant physical media) will not be fully defeated by downloads in my lifetime.

Most of the download schemes I've read about usually try to follow some variation of the pay-per-view format. They've incorporated so much DRM that you can barely play the file unless everything in your hardware and software is just right and the moon isn't full. If your primary movie watching consists of rentals from Blockbuster, NetFlix, etc., then that's fine. But there are movies and TV shows that I love to watch over and over again. Some, because I just really enjoy the story. Others, because I find something unusual in the shooting, editing, sound recording, etc., that I want to watch over and over to study and try to incorporate into my own work someday. For me, I don't just want my own film library, I think I NEED one! Physical media is the only way to go for me. Downloading won't be practical until the DRM mess is straightened out such that we can burn the files to physical media and view the content as much as we want, and until the bandwidth to download in a reasonable time frame becomes widely available. I currently have 5 meg download speed from Time-Warner, and even with that, it would take forever to download one movie in 1080P with HBR audio. That bandwidth is coming, but it'll be years before it reaches wide-scale market penetration.

Just my 2 cents worth.

Aloha

What kind of consumer is going to shell out for Apple TV when they can get a slick game machine with internet download capability and a built-in Blu-ray player for a few bucks more?.

Perhaps consumers who have no interest in gaming?

And yes, until now Apple TV hasn't had great success, but that's because they required a computer middleman. Now that middleman is gone.

But even so, I don't think Apple TV will be huge -- the idea and model it presents is going to be huge. It is the first of similar downloading devices/business models that will take over the rental market, I believe. I'm now expecting that the big cable companies, Comcast, etc., will turn their cable boxes into movie download machines -- which they already are, to some extent -- and then ask for a downloading deal with the six majors. Apple is just providing the model.

I agree it looks bleak for HD DVD, but if they want to get back in the game, their only hope is to: (1) include an HD DVD player with every XBox; (2) bring out a low cost burner; (3) keep underselling blu-ray players, and (4) ideally, develop a low cost dual player so it doesn't matter whether you have HD DVD or blu-ray.

I agree it looks bleak for HD DVD, but if they want to get back in the game, their only hope is to: (1) include an HD DVD player with every XBox; (2) bring out a low cost burner; (3) keep underselling blu-ray players, and (4) ideally, develop a low cost dual player so it doesn't matter whether you have HD DVD or blu-ray.

These are good points, but more and more this scenario is looking like watching a losing football team in the fourth quarter of a game and saying "all they need is two touchdowns and a field goal to win".

If they did not take these steps up until now, I don't think they have the capability or time to execute going foward.

The lack of computer burners has always made me suspicious of HD-DVD winning this war. I agree the focus is on big movies, but there are a lot of folks out there that think the burner is an important part of a media format.

It amazes me that they have yet to put a burner on the market and want us to commit to the format.

HD-DVD player really is a no-brainer for many of us in media production.
The players don't document it, but producing hybrid discs of HD on DVD-R is very easy and effective (for short programs).
High quality linit is about 20 minutes, but you can squeeze double that on at higher compressed rates that still look worlds better than SD video.
For lots of professional work, throwing in the $130 player is actually an incentive for our clients. (these discs also play back at hi-res via apple dvd-player on all modern macs)
For corporate/industrial/presentation work it's a very useful and cheap tool to be able to deploy.
You can actually put (standard formats) HDV clips on to a DVD-r and play them back on a toshiba! No re-compression involved, but they do have to be put in the right envelope format and muxed. In my limited testing though, I've found for edited material it's worth going to H264 codec if you can afford to leave the machine rendering the compression for awhile.
I use apple DVD studio pro, but there are people doing this on win as well.

Not really a solution for the wedding videographers, but this is killer for lots of corporate work (Include playback hardware to their plasma in your bid, and take some profit).

Meanwhile. I'm enjoying my Universal and Paramount movies. These guys do some alright stuff. Forget the media hype and instead of following the sheep, buy a system that delivers at a reasonable price. If consumers made the practical choice, the studios will simply follow. Blu may have crested the wave after the beating that the media gave them (much more significant than Warner's decision in itself). Unfortunately much of the media reporting was poorly informed and unduly influenced by a deluge of biased press releases.

Tim, the recordable drives have been around for a year, the (somewhat impractical and expensive) set-top player available in Japan for 6 months (before Blu-ray and on display for release here at CES).
The recordable PC drives are only sold OEM. I suspect this is because of the touchy state of copy protection and DRM. Since movies have not activated AACS limitations due to legacy HD-TV systems, I think you'd be able to dupe commercial movies easily with this unit. That's my take anyway...
Blu-ray does seem to be ahead with recorders now, with drives out for under $500 and a few set-top recorders (although I've heard some real issues exist with compatibility - an ongoing blu-ray problem).
I'm going to look for people here doing blu-ray production to catch up with where that stands for we producers now.

Apple isn't providing the model for downloadable movies... as usual, they are copying a pre-established idea and 'updating it'. DIVX had a downloadable distribution model NINE years ago, and a better deal before DRM was in place. But it didn't fly.

As the article says more data is needed but regardless, it speaks to the fact that the consumers are intelligent enough to see the differences in the formats and who is backing each one.

http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&taxonomyName=storage&articleId=9059058&taxonomyId=19&intsrc=kc_top

I think that fact that there is a war has turned a lot of consumers off.

People know if they buy the format that does not win, their player and movies are going to go unsupported.

I thought by looking through Newegg there would have been an HD-DVD burner listed by now.

Tricky times for a lot of folks in this industry.

I think that fact that there is a war has turned a lot of consumers off.

People know if they buy the format that does not win, their player and movies are going to go unsupported.

I thought by looking through Newegg their would have been an HD-DVD burner listed by now.

Tricky times for a lot of folks in this industry.

I would agree. Quite frankly at this point I think the contrasts is more just a Chevy's and Ford's debate not VW Beatle's and Ferrari's so I really don't care much WHO wins, just that there is one format. Then major production can go on and prices can come down to what they need to be. Had this VHS/BetaMax war not started again, we'd be buying HD blank disks for $2 and burners sub $100 by now.

As far as downloaded movies are concerned, I agree with the suggestion that cable and satellite companies can pretty much own this market simply by adding the necessary features to their converter boxes. But Sony is in a unique position with the PS3 to serve both those who want disc-based HD and those who want to download from the Internet, since it can handle both.

Looks like HD-DVD is on its last legs and Internet movies have a ways to go to be fully practical. Bly-ray production prices are already fairly reasonable and should continue to improve significantly over the next year or two.

As the article says more data is needed but regardless, it speaks to the fact that the consumers are intelligent enough to see the differences in the formats and who is backing each one.

http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&taxonomyName=storage&articleId=9059058&taxonomyId=19&intsrc=kc_top

Interesting. But as the article pointed out, it is just a week of data. I'd like to wait 5 more weeks to have an accurate trend. Besides, the HD-DVD camp may try something, to counterattack. Whatever that is, I am not optimistic.

As I posted before the Critical Success Factor is the content. And it is the movies primarily on disc. Not adult, not wedding videographers, or having it in your home merely to burn your own data. These sectors are not the leader of change. They are not the CFS or the driver. They sure help accellerate change, but they do not drive it or set it.

Maybe the disc will die, but it won't happen overnight. Maybe Job's idea of content being streamed will happen. But it is still laying down the foundation for that. Discs still have time to grow along side it.

The critical issue is, at this point in time, a single disc standard must prevail. We can't have two or three. The adult industry, the wedding videographers, and home users will have to be followers, not leaders.

This result of the 1 week purchasing of players also is a clear signal, as you correctly pointed out, that consumers are savvy, and they have their heads listening for the market and the leaders. And the executives understood where the fulcrum was/is. Otherwise, why the wheeling-dealing and the rush to gain WB's blessing?

This is one time that the variables for change have been identified correctly, tested, and verified. Now all we have to do is wait, to see how HD-DVD will react and if they still have anything up their sleeve. I doubt it though. But we'll see.

BD still isn't in the clear. Sony, et. al must now move for the kill. They must reach a critical mass asap to solidify their position. Prevent any counterattacks or at least blunt it. Sony, et. al. cannot be complacent. If ever, they must accellarate their efforts to achive that critical mass - the PONR (The Point of No Return).

It's a no-win situation for HD-DVD. Even if they could find a way to regain some market share and relevance, then they would scare all the people back into waiting til the format war is over...which they could never win.

BD still isn't in the clear. Sony, et. al must now move for the kill.The only real thing keeping Sony from shooting itself is Panasonic. Had Panasonic gone HD DVD, Blu-ray probably would have lost.

The only real thing keeping Sony from shooting itself is Panasonic. Had Panasonic gone HD DVD, Blu-ray probably would have lost.

Does Panasonic control any significant movie content? If not then their decisions are probably irrelevant, as not even Microsoft has been able to prevent HD-DVD from imploding. The main thing which has kept HD-DVD from disappearing already has been dirt-cheap players, and I wouldn't bet those are being sold at a profit. For once it looks like Sony made the smart decisions and it's their competition which keeps shooting itself in the foot.

Does Panasonic control any significant movie content? If not then their decisions are probably irrelevant.Maybe. But with Matsushita/Panasonic's manufacturing muscle and funding, the scales might've been tipped in HD DVD's favor, in terms of both available player models and the depth of the coffers from which to bribe the studios. Regardless of sweetheart deals, I presume that ultimately the studios want to support viable platforms. I'm pretty sure that Panasonic and Sony's being on the same side this time influenced their decisions (I'm not saying it was the only factor).

. . . not even Microsoft has been able to prevent HD-DVD from imploding.What, with Xbox 360? Unlike with the PS3, the player is optional. And despite Microsoft's size, it was up against an electronics giant. Sony had the edge, at least as far as moving the players. Besides, Microsoft's name being associated with HD DVD may have worked against the format.

...What, with Xbox 360? Unlike with the PS3, the player is optional. And despite Microsoft's size, it was up against an electronics giant. Sony had the edge, at least as far as moving the players. Besides, Microsoft's name being associated with HD DVD may have worked against the format.

Sony is huge. They basically were able to subsidize the HD war w/ a huge 1.2 billion dollar loss over the past two years with their game machine. ( http://www.gamegrep.com/industry_news/5803-sony_official_financial_report_q2_fy07_sony_games_division_841m_usd_loss_hardwaresoftware_numbers/ )

Sony is giving it away..."...was primarily due to the loss arising from the strategic pricing of PS3 at points lower than its production cost ."

Now, Toshiba is doing the same. Lowering the prices below the production cost...but, I'm NOT sure they are willing to absorb the 1.2 BILLION in losses for two years like Sony did.

Yet, Toshiba is set to earn 2.7 billion for the year. http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9584_22-6228190.html

Everyone, it seems, is losing money, in terms of selling below cost. HD DVD, XBOX 360, Blu-Ray, PS3, etc. They subsidize it with sales of movies, games and so on.

Heath

Not looking good, according to Yahoo! news:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/20080128/tc_pcworld/141869;_ylt=A0WTcVvl951HK0YB5RUjtBAF

heath

Not looking good, according to Yahoo! news:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/20080128/tc_pcworld/141869;_ylt=A0WTcVvl951HK0YB5RUjtBAF
heath
Paragraph 7, 8 and 10 proves that his knowledge about the X-BOX 360 is very limited.

True; XBOX 360 is still using SD DVDs with HD content to deliver games. They won't ever have to go Blu-Ray.

heath

-EDIT-
OK, I think I’m going a little bit too far with this.

The article states, "Should HD DVD lose the format war, Microsoft will have to start using Blu-ray Disc on the Xbox 360 in order to allow users to play high definition video games." This is plainly incorrect. XBox 360 does not need an HD-DVD or Blu-ray drive to deliver HD gaming.

Furthermore, Microsoft already offers a substantial selection of HD movie & TV content downloads via XBox Live. If anything, this sort of online delivery of HD material may trump both Blu-ray and HD-DVD.

Sony is huge. They basically were able to subsidize the HD war w/ a huge 1.2 billion dollar loss over the past two years with their game machine. ( http://www.gamegrep.com/industry_news/5803-sony_official_financial_report_q2_fy07_sony_games_division_841m_usd_loss_hardwaresoftware_numbers/ )

Sony is giving it away..."...was primarily due to the loss arising from the strategic pricing of PS3 at points lower than its production cost ."


W/the exception of the Nintendo Wii, all game consoles sell for a loss at launch and may break even or turn a profit towards the end of it's life cycle. Accessories and games are where the profit lies. Microsoft has lost around 6 billion dollars so far between the Xbox and Xbox 360. The estimated repair costs for all the faulty 360's is over a billion dollars alone. Microsoft is not afraid to hemorrhage cash to get a foot hold in a market place it deems vital.


-A

If anything, this sort of online delivery of HD material may trump both Blu-ray and HD-DVD.Maybe someday, but DVDs currently trump downloads by a HUGE margin. This will only change when there is a fundamental technological advancement, new business model or social development. We already have the bandwidth to download SD. There are companies that currently provide the service. Tens of millions of people have broadband and are proficient enough with a computer to use it for downloads. There are boxes like VuDu and AppleTV as well as Media Center PCs that enable movie downloads, subscriptions and rentals that can be viewed on the television.

So, three questions:

- Why don't electronic downloads/subscriptions/rentals trump DVD sales/Netflix/rentals today?

- What is preventing downloads from winning today?

- What change on the horizon will alter the balance?

(C.S. I don't mean to pick on you. Many people predict that downloads are the future. The questions above are open to anybody. If there is a sea change on the horizon, I'd like to know. I'm open to the notion that things will change...)

Maybe someday, but DVDs currently trump downloads by a HUGE margin. This will only change when there is a fundamental technological advancement, new business model or social development. We already have the bandwidth to download SD. There are companies that currently provide the service. Tens of millions of people have broadband and are proficient enough with a computer to use it for downloads. There are boxes like VuDu and AppleTV as well as Media Center PCs that enable movie downloads, subscriptions and rentals that can be viewed on the television.

So, three questions:

- Why don't electronic downloads/subscriptions/rentals trump DVD sales/Netflix/rentals today?

- What is preventing downloads from winning today?

- What change on the horizon will alter the balance?

(C.S. I don't mean to pick on you. Many people predict that downloads are the future. The questions above are open to anybody. If there is a sea change on the horizon, I'd like to know. I'm open to the notion that things will change...)

I think the major hurdles are it's not convenient enough yet, the perceived value isn't there, and the void that iTunes and the iPod filled in the music world doesn't exist (or exists on a much smaller scale) in the video world. For example, 10,000 songs in your pocket sounds useful, but 10,000 movies in your pocket sounds pointless.

Video-on-demand has been "the next big thing" for like 15 years now but for one reason or another it has never caught on like the industry thought it would.


-A

Maybe someday, but DVDs currently trump downloads by a HUGE margin. This will only change when there is a fundamental technological advancement, new business model or social development. We already have the bandwidth to download SD. There are companies that currently provide the service. Tens of millions of people have broadband and are proficient enough with a computer to use it for downloads. There are boxes like VuDu and AppleTV as well as Media Center PCs that enable movie downloads, subscriptions and rentals that can be viewed on the television.

So, three questions:

- Why don't electronic downloads/subscriptions/rentals trump DVD sales/Netflix/rentals today?


It's too early.

1- The infrastructure isn't there.

a) Apple, et. al, still are feeling out/experimenting on the formula, etc to make this so.
b) the Net infrastructure is not ready for the bandwidth. And it does not help when in the USA, those who are supposed to provide it are lagging compared to other other countries.
c) this lag also brings with it higher cost, compared to other countries.

2- Unclear formation of consumer perception or concept of video viewing. Maybe the next generation will have this mind set in the future, but for now, it has not yet gelled for many. Many still psychologically feel that there is still a big difference in having a physical disc to "own" vs to merely stream it. It's like collecting stamps or rocks. Without that disc or media, there is a feeling

3- Lack of infrastructure again. If in time the streaming model should dominate, it won't happen if most homes are automatically wired (or wirelessly "wired") and can steream videos on demand, like opening tap water. If the consumer has to open a PC, log in, etc. This delay of gratification is bad for acceptance in the new "format."

4 - The content providers know how valuable they are. But they are not yet certain or unclear as to this new model. Hence, they would parlay the disc medium first, and see how the other guys are going to sell their contents in their own way.

5. To totally go via the Net for video, would miss out existing revenues. In the 3rd world and in other places, not everybody is wired. Discs will provide that revenue stream for these content providers. Also, it is still cheaper to buy
a player and the disc than for an entire country or state to wire their locality with the bandwidth required for streaming video.

6. The standards for streaming is still being contested. It may seem mpeg4 is it, or some other codec is it, but Apple for one would really like the entire world to use their own :-) And how does AVCHD going to play in this whole scheme? Would the other players just roll over and die without a fight? What about MS? .wmv may be weak, but hey, they wouldn't just take this without a say. Would it be possible to have a file format that can be compressed in higher bandwidth be streamable and can be smaller when sent to the web? And how will this be resolved?


- What is preventing downloads from winning today?


Same answer as the previous.


- What change on the horizon will alter the balance?



When the stake holders can address the points I have raised that's how its going to be played out.


(C.S. I don't mean to pick on you. Many people predict that downloads are the future. The questions above are open to anybody. If there is a sea change on the horizon, I'd like to know. I'm open to the notion that things will change...)

Downloads can be the future. And it might be. But if the points I have raised aren't addressed, no matter how great the new machines are, as long as there is no affordable high bandwidth Internet connection in Delhi, then discs will still dominate.

Or the can co-exist. There is still a sociological/psychological reason for people to be able to touch or "own" something they can see and touch physically. Discs do that.

Or then maybe, even discs will be passe and are unwittingly a transition medium themselves. If the price of SSDs or CFs go down drastically, these SD/CFs are better mediums. They are small, can be made faster in time, can be scaled in storage size without having buy a new drive to read the new higher capacity discs. No alignment or calibration problems, easier to archive, etc. etc.