Blue Ray-but For How Long
 

Ok well I'm hearing rumors that Blue Ray is pointless due to yet another format coming out (I DONT KNOW WHEN). Is this true? I wouldn't think this could be true for another 6-10 years.

That's old news. The new Blu-Ray killer is nothing compared to the NEXT big thing that's coming out; it's going to make the Blu-Ray killer pointless!

Don't forget, of course, that while rumors are fun sometimes, don't let them sneak into your decision making process. That should be reserved for cold, hard facts.

I think the next thing may be UHD. But then again, it may not.

The best advice I've ever read about buying new technology was from Scott Billups's book "Digital Moviemaking."

His advice on when you buy a new camera? Buy one when you need one.

Do you need a blu-ray player? Be honest. If the answer is yes, then buy one. If the answer is no, then don't buy one.

And this works with every new gadget.

cool, yeah I most def will need one buy xmas time. So do you think 5 or 10 years for the step up?

"So do you think 5 or 10 years for the step up?"

The only way I know to answer this question is to refer you to an Oscar winning tune sung by Doris Day:

Que Sera, Sera,
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que Sera, Sera
What will be, will be.

Basic Rule: EVERYTHING in the computer world is an antique after 18-24 months...

Things last a little longer in the A/V world. VHS died very slowly, and it appears that red-laser DVD will last even longer. If there hadn't been foolish incompatibility for blue-laser units, the uptake would have been much faster. I digress.

I think it's safe to say that there is noting imminent to replace Blu-ray or HD-DVD. Lot of ideas, concepts, etc, but nothing in the next few years.

I'm not a DVD format expert, but one of my close friends in Tokyo was the VP responsible for DVD development at one of the major Japanese players in the DVD business and I asked him the same question a few weeks back. The above sums up his comment.

The most imminent threat to either of the established HD disc formats would be some form of internet-based distribution, plus the possibility that neither disc format will get very far because consumers are disgusted with the conflict between them. But in terms of an actual replacement for Blu-ray in a similar disc-based format, that's unlikely any time soon given all the money being pumped into the current formats - there's no evidence the movie studios are already looking forward to yet another format!

The next killer disc will be hologram technology but it has way more capacity than Hollywood needs. The sales race was being won by Sony in a big way until HD-DVD folks dropped $150,000,000.00 to get more movies out on HD-DVD.

Interestingly, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are developed by the same company now.

Sony of course was the leader of the Blu-Ray camp, and NEC and Toshiba were the main proponents of HD-DVD.

Sony and NEC have both spun their DVD businesses off into a joint venture company which is 55% owned by Sony and 45% owned by NEC. The betting in Japan was that this meant the slow agonizing death of HD-DVD, but so far it isn't clear that that's what's happening - despite the best efforts of the majority owner of the joint venture!

Re Holographic - I wouldn't hold my breath. In-Phase started shipping some units earlier this year (or maybe late last year) but I don't think they're ready to challenge the DVD guys any time soon. Also not clear how long it would be before you'd be able to get a low cost holographic drive into a PC. I went to a couple of technology presentations on holographic this year and last year. Fascinating technology.

The really "fun" technology, though, might be the "millipede" technology that has been developed primarily at IBM's Zurich research laboratory. Little pointy probes driven up and down by piezoelectricity and tapping on the recording surface like the tips of little scanning electron microscopes. I think they were talking a terabyte or so in a 9 mm square chip as a starting point. I also wouldn't hold my breath waiting for this to show up at a PC shop near you.

And you're right on when you mention the issue of what on earth the movie guys would find to put on these technologies - maybe MGM's total film output for 2 years on one disk. Shouldn't cost more than $5,000 each at Wal-Mart:<))

Specifically, the HD-DVD consortium shelled out $150M to convince two movie studios to use HD-DVD exclusively for their HD content for the next 18 months. In other words, they had to pay the studios to use HD-DVD, and you can guess what will happen the moment that agreement expires. As far as I know Blu-ray movie discs are still outselling HD-DVD by a ratio of 2:1 overall in spite of events like this and the lower price of entry-level HD-DVD players. So either few people are buying those cheap players or the people who are buying them aren't buying many HD-DVD movies, and either way that doesn't bode well for the HD-DVD format.

DVD players have only been around for ten years and have only been pervasive for about five, but we've gotten good use out of that technology. Blu-ray is the next standard movie delivery medium and should be good for at least five years or so before internet/VOD delivery of movies takes over.

Another five years sounds like the end of 2012. Who knows what will happen then, especially between Dec 21st and 23rd... :-|

Yup,

There's a great saying in Japanese that translates as "Say "Tomorrow" and the Devil laughs"

Must be a lot of laughing devils in the technology business.

Here is the exact numbers of HD-DVD v. Blu-Ray Disc Sales
http://www.engadgethd.com/tag/VideoScan/
If there is not a big boost from th 90,000 Toshiba A2's sold in one weekend or the A-3 for $169 at Sears on Black Friday is it because of Upsampling. The claim is (I'll find out when my A-3 arrives) that SD DVDs look much better when played in the entry level Toshiba. If that's true it may hurt sales of HD-DVD disks.

Not too sure of the details, but it's my understanding that China has a unique standard for domestic HD - and it's a variation of HD-DVD

So I think regardless of the US market results, HD-DVD is not going to go away a la Beta and VHS.

My forecast? No clear winner ever.

Yes, China has their own standard but I'm pretty sure that's based on red-laser technology, like the Avec and JVC HD players here.

HD-DVD would probably be on its way out by now if someone wasn't pumping a lot of money into sustaining the format. We'll see in the next year or two how well that holds up or whether either format gains enough momentum to really make a difference.

Well, I'm over my head knowledgewise on this so I asked someone who really really knows as he was intimately involved in DVD development in Japan.

To summarize

1) Both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are supposed to have red laser for downward compatibility. I also recall that HD-DVD and red laser focus at the same depth into the media, whereas Blu-Ray does not

2) The Chinese standard is identical with HD-DVD at the hardware level with some differences at the firmware level

3) The DVD forum has released a new spec (DVD Rec) which is H264 (Mpeg4/AVC) and laser independent and can work with Hidef and regular DVD. Toshiba has already announced a recorder based on this.

So I think the substance of my comment is true, ie with hardware compatible HD-DVD as the standard in China, HD-DVD is not going to go away regardless of what the US movie studios do or don't do. The dog has gotten too big for the tail to wag it anymore.

Just my personal opinion, based on having had Great Danes for years! You could wag a chihuahua by the tail if it didn't bite you first, but wagging a Great Dane would be an altogether different proposition. Although they're generally so amiable that they wouldn't mind if you tried! It's just that you'd probably get a fatal hernia trying.

I stand corrected, or more specifically it appears the Chinese have an even newer HD standard than the one I was familiar with.

Old "EVD" format: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_Versatile_Disc

New "CH-DVD" format: http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...sc-format.html

My friend in Japan told me that there is another Chinese standard for red laser, but it appears to be going nowhere now that the CH-DVD standard has appeared.

That seems to be what you were thinking of.