Interesting thread. The current fly in the ointment is the current state of the worlds economies. According to some retailers here with very poor consumer DV cam sales, this will wind down prosumer releases.

IMO this'll give Canon etal time to think more, without the apparent bun rushes seen in recent years. We may see better thought out technology and quality control, hope so. Damn! I hate starting page 2.

Cheers.

The current economic situation is *not* to blame. If you examine the history of Canon video product releases (public information, readily available on the Canon corporate web site), you'll notice a deeply entrenched pattern that Canon has always followed.

Basically that pattern is: they are *always last* to the market in any new format.
But what they do is usually somewhat revolutionary. Here are some examples:

DV format: Canon was the last camcorder manufacturer to move to DV. They didn't ship a DV camcorder until January 1998 (compare to Sony, who introduced DV in 1995). However, Canon had the first interchangeable-lens DV camcorder at a prosumer price range, the XL1.

HDV: Canon was the last camcorder manufacturer to move to HDV. They didn't ship an HDV camcorder until November 2005 (compare to Sony, who introduced HDV more than 18 months earlier, and JVC long before that). However, Canon had very first sub-$10K camera equipped with SDI, the XL H1.

Consumer DVD: Canon was the last manufacturer to offer a consumer camcorder recording to DVD, but they were the first to offer dual media recording (still images to SD card).

Therefore it's safe to say -- and quite frankly, it should be thoroughly expected -- that since Canon is once again the last manufacturer to move to a new format (in this case native tapeless HD recording), most likely when they do it'll be something amazing. Hope this helps,

What would be amazing is if they put that 5DMKII chip into a camera like the XHA1.

I'm happy with tape at this point, though the world is obviously changing. Still, I see no need to create extra data management work for myself now. If Canon came out with a tapeless camera that recorded an hour to cards that cost 20 bucks, then I'd be interested because I could file the cards away as I do with tapes.

Advances in technology are clearly accelerating - it will be interesting to see if this trend shortens the "entrenched" pattern Canon has been on. Your response was enlightening Chris.

Like many I suspect, my gut feel is that a slowing economy would play a part in slower releases. OTOH - a manufacturer might propel new products to market in an effort to generate more sales - especially if much of the development costs have already taken place.

As I think about it - Canon was slow to market with the 5D Mkll - we waited and waited and... So it looks like we will have to wait and .....

No doubt it would sell like hotcakes and I wouldn't rule out buying such a camera if it was the best in class at a price I could pay. But, here's what I told the Canon guys at NAB as my wish list (probably too late for products currently in development, and it is just my pie-in-the-sky opinion anyway):
- DON'T put out a pro video camera susceptible to rolling shutter. Either overcome CMOS issues with technical wizardry, or put Big CCDs in it. Little doubt "everyone else" is already heading down the road of bigger CMOS chips...easy and cheap engineering at this point. Do large sensors better.
- Speaking of larger...APS-C (but wide format, of course), or larger.
- Minimum 60 progressive fps, at least at 1080 but preferably 2K+ image size.
- Solid State recording at generous bit rates
- Continue the XL line in addition to this new large sensor line...different price points and IMO therefore different markets.

If they can do all that for $10-15K with lens, I'll be happy. For a while. ;-)

Pete... You don't want much, do ya? (grin)

It could be quite simply because their cameras are competing quite well with the new solid states of a similar price.

I bought my A1s a month ago and had the choice of getting the panasonic or JVC solid states for a similar (amd slightly lower) price (which I really was looking forward to) but after a lot of research decided to opt for the Canon as it seemed to just be a better camera.

I imagine Canon will come up with a solid state but if they are a conservative company, and if their current lines are competing well with the solid state competition, I suppose they're in no rush.

Pete - I am certainly no IC designer/engineer - but - your comment about the CMOS issues is spot on and perhaps that is what is taking so long. Re-wrapping current image capture limitations in a new box helps but falls short.

Either boost CMOS offload bandwidth or reduce ccd heat generation somehow.

We wait and wait......

Evolving the XHA1 to the next level presents significant challenges. Replacing the 1440x1080 pixel sensors with 1920x1080 pixel sensors with better noise performance would be the first step. The larger sensors would produce 30% more data due to the number of pixels in the line. Adding 60P capability makes the data rate 2.6 times the current number for all image processing functions.

Compression must also run at 2.6 times the current rate if MPEG 2 is used. MPEG4 or AVC is significantly more computation intensive - for argument's sake say 4 times based on a custom compressor chip, that's 10.4 times the current number. (How much time does it take for your edit program to output AVC vs. MPEG2 for a Blu-ray?)

You save some power from removing the tape drive but how much will the faster electronics and compressor take? How much more heat will be produced? On the solid state storage, what file format should be used? License something from Sony or Panasonic for compatibility with existing editing programs?

And, of course, all at the same price point as the current model. From the user point of view, only three requirements change (1920 wide, 60P, solid state recording) but the engineering is dramatically more complex.