I offered DVDs in 2001 and I don't think I had a client ask for a DVD until 2003. Seriously--they still wanted VHS! And some film festivals I was involved with didn't want DVD until about 2003, either. I couldn't believe that! But I mostly think it was because there weren't widespread and affordable options to create DVDs that were widely adopted until 2002 or so.

I see the same thing happening with BD, though we may see downloads and streaming (like Netflix, VUDU, etc.) before anyone widely accepts BD. However, BD sales are up 91% in the first half of 2009:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10288294-1.html

Heath

I used to be an Avid editor for a facilities company. At the time it was the only serious option. I still have Media Composer with the latest version and dongle sitting on my Mac. Do I use it.... No. I now use FCP, why? The Avid GUI is so dated an inflexible, they have only recently enabled dragging and dropping selections of clips within the timeline. Every other NLE has been doing that for years. To get a simple HDSDi single in and out requires expensive Avid only hardware while FCP, Vegas and Premiere can all work with very effective low cost 3rd party cards.

Avid seems to be stuck in the past. I was told by someone from Avid that they have a serious issue with the core editing engine within their software. Because of the amount of large corporations and broadcasters with massive install bases of older Avid systems they dare not make major changes to some of their core software components. Doing so would risk loosing essential backwards compatibility. Because of this they have real problems going forwards. On the one hand any new software needs to work with a lot of older legacy Avid products to keep the big networks happy, on the other hand they need to make big changes to keep pace with FCP and all the other NLE producers.

In my opinion unless Avid open up their architecture to make it easier to work with 3rd party products they will struggle to survive.

13 or 14 years ago, I had a really great (expensive, $50k) Avid SD NLE sysytem. It was my first experience with any NLE. I found it to be very easy and intuitive to learn and to understand. I am amazed at all of the comments to the contrary. I had another guy working with me and neither of us had any prior experience working with the Avid or any other NLE, for that matter. We just picked it up on the fly and we did a lot of great work with it. We edited stuff that won local, national and international awards with that Avid. I left the business for several years. When I got back into video, I was looking for a new edit system. I wound up going with Premiere 6.5 because of luck, circumstance and a lack of big bucks for anything else. I bought a new retail bundle that was an amazingly cheap closeout ($39) and I later upgraded to CS3. CS3 seems to be a pretty good system and it easily handles my HDV footage but there are many times that I wish I could have my old Avid system back but with full HD capability. It just seemed to be much easier to translate my visions of what I wanted to achieve into working video. Interestingly, the guy who used to work for me is now working in Atlanta. He spent a couple of years shooting news. When he struck out on his own, he bought an Avid HD system because of his positive experience of working with my Avid. But he grew disallusioned with his Avid and he has now sold it and converted to FCP. He seems to be happy with FCP.

Avid is still at the top of the pile, along with FCP. I think they'll both be around for a while. A few years back, I was on an HDV instructional tour with Douglas Spotted Eagle and he made a good point: Avid was a "legacy" product (my words) that saw minor updates, but nothing dramatic. He said he could see Final Cut Pro starting to do that (right again) and become like Avid. Nothing wrong with that, mind you.

He also made the point that Vegas was a bit of a radical departure from other NLEs and he was definitely right about that.

Heath