If Wall Street can come up with a financial product that essentially would let me sell short on the prospect of 3D TV somehow becoming mainstream in living rooms within my lifetime, I'm there!

I don't think it's wildest proponents are suggesting that within a year everyone will have thrown out their HD, SD, even monochrome Tvs and rushed out to buy a 3D set - let alone that all broadcasting will be in 3D.

But all technologies tend to go through the same pattern. Announcement, demonstrations, uptake by the wealthy, uptake by early adopters, then they tend to reach a tipping point and become "the norm" for new purchases, but older technology hangs around for a long time after that.

HD is now well past the tipping point. 3D is still at the demonstration stage, but these announcements indicate that the "wealthy early stage" is likely to happen next year. It becoming the new purchase norm is then obviously some years away, but that's the way all these technologies have gone.

There is no way people are going to wear special glasses to watch TV. It just ain't gonna happen. Sony already has Blu-ray. How many technologies that people won't buy do they need.

P.S. Note to Sony - Drop Blu-ray decks to $75. Otherwise, it ain't happening and will become the next Laserdisc.

I agree.

The time for "early adopters" is finished. If they want this format to gain traction they need to get the price of the players down to the Wal-mart level. Not just a few red herrings, but the majority of them.

yep...
While I see burners sub $200 (around $170 at Frys sometimes), and the occasional "refurb" player in the low $100's ($134 is the lowest I can recall), BR needs to break the $100 barrier soon and big time - big TV's have dropped substantially, I don't know what Sony's problem is - if they don't hit the mainstream soon, they will be obsolete before they reach critical mass.

I got a BR player on the laptop I upgraded, so I have SOMETHING to play BR - plays the BR-DVD's (BR on regular DVD) I burn in Vegas nicely and looks great, but it was something that just went with the laptop and was a nice "additional feature" - wouldn't have bought it otherwise...

At least I heard Toshiba is planning to enter the BR market... maybe they can inflict some payback for HDVD... and bring the prices down!?

for blu-ray sony is not in a hurry because after HD-DVD vanished, they are the only one to offer optical disc with such high capacity and with some room for improvement.
so , unless some chinese guy come with another cheap technology (rebirthed HD-DVD) they can wait few years as long the market is locked.
it probably cost them less to wait than to build and sell equipement at loss.
They also probably expect other to spend the money to build the technology, because the strong point of Sony is they got license on blu-ray disc, so they do not need to produce anything to make money, they are just waiting for the royalties.

Well, here's a couple of problems that will need to be sorted out in the meantime.

Innovation: The scramble to give TV a third dimension - tech - 08 September 2009 - New Scientist

Entelligence: 3D may fall flat

Currently we're lacking both the hardware to produce the content (none of which is currently available), and enough of the compelling content itself. Then there is a minor issue of yet another format war regarding how this will be delivered both physically and via broadcast transmission.

Andrew

LMAO, so I have NOT been the only one that cracks up laughing at the local Blockbuster
where they have the big screen TV split screen, one side 'normal DVD' and the other side 'BLU RAY HD DVD FOR IMPROVED PICTURE AND SOUND....blah blah'......and yes, the
TV is hooked up to a NORMAL SD DVD PLAYER!!! How exactly am I seeing the full quality
of the Blu Ray HD disc again? It just goes to show that the normal 'man on the street' consumer really doesn't have a clue and it is all 'marketing speak.' I was in the local Walmart a few days ago and was listening to a woman who wanted to buy her husband a
new HD set so that he could 'watch football with a better picture.' But when I asked her
if she had Direct TV with the HD package......uh no, just normal cable TV with it's SD
picture. It's like magic, get a new TV and EVERYTHING is better cause it's an 'HD set'.
Man I want my 3D set yesterday cause it will make all the SD stuff I watch even BETTER!

Sorry to get this discussion off topic. But I disagree with your point. Actually, Sony can't wait. In fact, I think it might be too late. They don't have to worry about another disc format. They have to worry about internet delivery. In the end, buying physical discs to watch a movie on will be antiquated. Why invest in a temporary technology?

Also, successful formats require a critical mass. In all my friends, I only know one who owns a Blu-ray disc player. Blu-ray is not even close to the adoption rate that it makes sense for non-Hollywood productions to send out on Blu-ray. Really the only hope for Blu-ray I see is that if they drop the price to almost DVD player levels. When people's DVD player breaks, they might replace it with a Blu-ray player.

quote :"Currently we're lacking both the hardware to produce the content... "

Well any camera can shoot in 3D, and well two is better than one.
for display, it is even easier.
The cheap equipment to do stereoscopic movie will disappear soon, because people who wants to make money on 3D will need to lock the market. If the want to sell you something, they need to make sure you cannot et it for free elsewhere.

The nuview disappeared, and the 3D monitor from Zalman is phased out this month (according my usual gadget dealer). Probably most people developping free utilities will get their devellopment "purchased".
Don't forget that Sony does not only make screens and cameras and projectors, but they "own" probably more actors, producer, movie majors than anybody else.
The fact is like for HD, was is not shot today with the latest technology will not be redoable later. So make movies and pictures of your family in 3d, because in 10 years you will have content to show.

Well I see a Magnavox Blu-ray player at WalMart (online and store) for $129. I think Blu-ray will make it although it will take awhile. 3d is another matter....

I think Brett is correct here.

Without the install base of players the format stays a niche format instead of THE format.

Right now DVD is THE format.

HD televisions have been pushed hard and the price has dropped a lot.

Blu-ray in my eyes exists but has not been pushed that hard yet.

I am sure they have a master plan I just hope it does not involve another format change in the near future!

Internet delivery of movies is where we are headed eventually, and probably in the not-to-distant future. It's simply inevitable. In the end, it's just going to be so way, way more cost effective for the big movie studios to deliver content over the internet, than distributing any type of physical media.

That said, if there is another (major) physical format, before internet delivery becomes the dominant distribution method, it will probably be based on flash memory. It just won't be that long until something akin to postage stamp size SDHC cards are at least as economically viable as optical disks of any sort, for delivering HD content.

I agree on both fronts, and they will probably be here sooner rather than later. (unlike 3DTV, or HDTV & BluRay being in every home). Downloading via netflix or so will likely be a popular option within 3-5 years. All people will be waiting on is a wireless connector to their TV.

As for physical formats, I think it'll be like Ipod's, only people will be able to store all their movies into them (or something like 10-50 movies). Just like a portable DVD collection.

The other thing worth noting is how great SD DVD looks when properly scaled. On my 46" 1080P plasma good widescreen DVDs look better then they ever have. I used to have a theater room with a SD projector and DVD scaled to 480P. On a 100" screen 1080P makes a big big difference, but on a 50" screen from over 10' back the difference isn't as huge (and what most users have anyway.)

So you have people happy with SD finally being displayed correctly scaled to 720/1080, you have them watching crappy compressed web video on all sorts of mobile devices, and Blu-Ray still costing too much for people to switch over. So now 3D? Unless some new technology comes out to make it somehow more enveloping I just can imagine people opting to wear specials glasses for the occasional effect to pop off the screen.