More likely the future is portable 'video everywhere,' using low bandwidth compression for most copies with an HD option for home and theater viewing. Once people get used to that then we can talk about 3D holographic projection, but that sounds like something for another generation or two from now. HD looks good for at least the next 10-20 years, as it will probably take that long for most people to upgrade their home viewing equipment.

3D for the cinema screen perhaps but domestically it'll be years off, it certainly isn't going to slow the growth of HD. How many people are going to say "I'll hold off buying an HD set because 3D total immersive TV is just around the corner."

yes, I will continue to buy HD...
 

Having said all that above, as someone stated earlier, we'll always shoot with the highest res possible or attainable.

Do I use HD? Absolutely! Will I continue to use it? Absolutely! But do I believe it has a very limited, near future technology run? Most assuredly. The pressures that drive our industry are inexorably pushing it to emulate real life in all it's aspects. Over the long term, that precludes continuing to use a 2-D technology that's had a 100+ year run already! Good grief, we're just now starting to use electonically transmitted images with resolution of the 1st film reels of 100 years ago!

I whole-heartedly agree with the "no glasses" idea! I will never use them either. But is 3-D coming on fast? I believe so. At least on a level we won't be able to compete with for many years to come. For most of us, that means investing in equipment and tech allowing us to continue to put bread on the table, yet be creative, without trying to do what Hollywood does with huge budgets. Maybe we should mostly be doing what Hollywood can't or doesn't want to do: ... concentrate on showing real life with it's high's and low's, to people that really don't care much about the resolution or aspect ratio (or it's underlying technology). Use what works best and easiest, to do what we do best.

(up to 4 bits now),

Stephen Armour - Brazil

In a certain way, you're right... More than you know, I think. :) HD is here and here to stay, but it's not the "next big thing". It's simply the evolution of digital video and the next logical stepping stone. Computer monitors and TVs are essentially becoming one in the same and higher resolutions are finally available to the masses, but in the end, it's not the major jump that a lot of people make it out to be. Within the next few years, there will hardly be a TV available that isn't HD (at least not in the 26" and larger category) and most consumer video cameras and whatnot will become HD. It's a no-brainer... The discontinued Sony HC1 can be had on eBay (brand new in a sealed retail box) for less than $1K. Another couple years, such HDV camcorders will be commonplace in the $350 price range that so many people find attractive for that simple home video camera.

I'll definitely agree with that. However, I think that the others who've pointed out the issue being the glasses are also correct. Currently the technology has been demonstrated (in limited capacity) by various companies to create 3D images without the need for special eyewear. It essentially works by targeting multiple beams of laser light or other high-intensity particles or by focusing high intensity beams to a very small point in space. This space is super-heated very quickly, causing miniature gas explostions or moisture bursts, creating a flash of light. All of this happens in about 1/100th of a second or even faster. Combine the technique with intense laser light and you can create a colored pixel floating in 3D space. This technique or some derivative of it is probably the future of cinematic 3D imagery. I believe that someday, we will go to the "movies" and have a 3D world projected around us rather than watching a flat screen in front of us. But there's a good bet that 3D is a good bet for the future.

In the meantime, HD is just a progression. Just as theatre systems are progressing to 4K digital projection. While 35mm film has approximately 4K to 6K resolution, most film distribution prints are only the equivalent of 1000 lines due to the generational loss, distribution stock, etc.. People will see a noticeable increase in detail at the theatres when 4K or higher film and digital sources are delivered on this medium and then we will have a smaller digital home version in the form of HD-DVD and/or BluRay. Eventually 4K will probably come to the home theatre... And at that point, massive 3D infrastructure will be making its way into the local cineplex.

The industry will continue to evolve and for those of us who work in the industry, any of these events can be "the next big thing" if we approach it in the right way and market it to our customers in the right way.

It's always this way and this is one of the key factors driving the evolution of how Hollywood delivers their goods. Home projectors and eventually television was perceived as a threat by Hollywood... They brought us widescreen formats and color, oh, my! Home video and the VCR brought about predictions of the Hollywood's death and the promise that anyone can be a movie star... Yet Hollywoood soon found that home video only gave them one more means of incresing profits. Hollywood panicked over DVD, but soon found that not only was the visual quality a lot better than preceding tape formats, but the level of profits was significantly higher too and a new interest in home video distribution was rekindled. Now we're hearing the same doom and gloom over HD and electronic distrubution... In the end, Hollywood will find a way to adapt and make its money and they will complain about the next evolutionary step that comes along. I can see it all now... In the year 2086, Hollywood will be predicting their own demise and doing everything they possibly can within the court system to stop a small startup company that is about to release a 390 TPixel whole-room 3D environmental display system that surpasses what's at the local cineplex.

Perhaps that is true, but with HD as an evolutionary step, someone has to invest. Oh, too late... Nearly 6 million HDTVs were sold in 2005 with predictions that this number will more than triple for 2006. 3D will undoubtedly come, but I don't see it happening without HD already in place as HD provides the underlying digital infrastructure, the resolution and bandwidth to open the door.

Yep...

Isn't 3D a movie directors nightmare? Isn't it all about selection what's in the frame, how it's lit, FOV and DOF? Most IMAX feature films I've seen were very impressive but did not carry the emotions as well as traditional cinema.

I think HD helps to capture the miniscule details that makes features even more gripping. But, of course, the display has to be big enough to allow the eyes of the spectators to ingest it all (like a cinema, for example).

IMHO 3D is a gorgeous effect but will not surpass traditional 2D HD. It will merely complement. Like black and white imagery complements colour film.

I don't buy into the the whole Blue Ray hype. I have asked several people about it at my office. Nobody has even heard of it. They were all "Blue what?"

I think Blue Ray is the next laser disk.