Not a chance.
A-world pipes aren't big enough.
B-Most consumers like physical devices. The next generation won't care as much as this one, though.
C-The studios aren't ready to let media go straight down the pipes as well.
It'll happen, but not in any real near time.
As a guy that owns a couple thousand DVDs, and a couple dozen BD/HD DVDs, I don't particularly want to be downloading the media anyway. But I'm old school. :-)

For John Vincent:
I can understand your point, but for clarity;
you're talking about three separate different divisions, all unrelated. The RootKit issue was actually a BMG initiative undertaken long before Sony bought BMG, and when Sony discovered what BMG had done, heads rolled. In other words, they unknowingly bought the problem.
Regardless of what you think the reasoning might be, BD was always intended as a means of initially introducing the consumer to BD, since day one. Makes perfect sense to me.
I can think of a lot of more ethically-challenged examples on the part of other big companies as well. Dishonesty to a point, seems to be the watchword of most major corporations whether we're talking about Ford and tires, Walmart and insurance, or any number of issues. If you don't trust Sony, you can't trust any of the others, either. From my perspective, due to the internal competition, Sony is actually more trustworthy than most of the others in the game.

You are basically right on all you said with a few exceptions.

Ford did not supply the tires, Firestone did. Most all the failures were caused by the consumer driving on under inflated tires. Look at other vehicles as you drive today and you will see that consummers still don't keep them even close to being inflated properly. I see tire failures all of the time. That is why it is illegal for truckers to drive on underinflated tires, and they are ticketed.
A few years ago, while driving a freeway in California, I managed to get a driver going 80 mph to pull over, after much effort understandably, to show her that one of her tires was under inflated. I asked her to touch the tire and she did. Well, just briefly, as it was so hot as to burn your fingers! That is the main reason that tires fail. They are opperated way out of their safety parameters. Kind of like dragging your Sony Z1 behind your pickup to get that great shot and then blaming Sony because the camera did not hold up!

Secondly, Walmart does not hide it's insurance policies, you know going in and are free to go elsewhere! Most workers are part time and all are free to leave at anytime.

Not quite the same with what Sony did.

As far as your A, B, and C remarks you are dead on. I want that product in my hand. I also hate buying software, like CineForm, as a download only. I paid $400.00 and I want that hard copy and I did not get it sent to me. One bitch with CineForm!

And, Hollywood wants us to get hard copies to! Someone can always hack into everything on-line.

JMHO----Mike

I'm sure that was the reasoning. I'm just not sure it makes sense - sort of mixing their apples and oranges, as it were. Here's why:

If the format (Blue-ray) fails to catch on, even despite the PS3, then it was a big-time failure. As has been pointed out in several places, the addition of Blue-ray to the PS3 crimped the PS3's release and added several hundred dollars to the price tag - an awful lot if you just want to play games and don't want a Blue-ray player. Most normal (ie - non-dvinfo guys) people I know could care less about Blue-ray; they just want to play to coolest games. HD-DVD certainly can provide that as a format. Cool game system is one thing; a new DVD/storage format totally sperate thing.

As to ethics, I also see nothing wrong with what Sony's done here - I just wonder if they're trying to shove a square peg down a round hole.

I'm not sure they are more ethical than any other company - they clearly want to dominate the market and have done, as far as can can tell, everything legally possible to do so. Given their past attempts to heavily regulate formats they control, there is a legit concern about their domination of the "next big thing" in the format wars.
john
evilgeniusentertainment.com

lemme weigh my 2 cents in here.

if you've been keeping a tab on CES happenings you'll see efforts to combine both formats on the combo player level and the manufacturing level (THD).

if you've taken business 101, then it's fairly obvious that both format/standard makers should have unified BEFORE coming to market. look at the "fixes" that are costly and just plain ole' stupid from a logical point of view. if they didn't debut either format until one unified format was created at least 2 years ago, PS3 would be on that platform and XB360 would have debuted a unified HD USB player and we'd all have an early adopter's piece of hardware that will still play ONE unified format. now the industry will pay for their stupid mistakes multiple-fold in the years to come. if they just knew enough about the market to turn around in the middle of creating these platforms, they would have captured more of the market. instead, more confusion ensues, people stick with SD. HD's will catch on... but not fast enough. it'll take on LaserDisc and hell LD's are STILL AROUND! lol

Well actually, from a technical standpoint, the BD discs are much, much more fragile than HD-DVD. The HD-DVDs are simply going to last longer, so data recovery/duplication costs become a factor. Also, the BD media does cost more to produce, and does not scale as well as HD-DVD.

Yes, members of that industry are not going to go exclusive to one format and completely alienate owners of the competing hardware. However, within the adult industry, there are some major players, and they have all pretty much swayed to HD-DVD. I would assume this was done because HD-DVD, being very close to current DVD technology, is more cost effective in the short-term and mid-term.

With processing power advancing how it is, the codec is becoming more important than the storage medium. I don't know how many of you follow the divx/xvid scene, but the latest generation of codecs are very, very close to DVD quality video (already at DVD quality audio), in a CD-size footprint. The consumers are still kind of in the dark with regard to perceptual compression, but I think it will come to the forefront as modular, software-upgradable internet-ready dvd/bd/hd-dvd players become prevalent. (When distribution networks figure out how to stream content to a box in your living room, they will want to be able to upgrade that format and add DRM restrictions without your permission, so that's where the live upgrade idea comes from.)

You are absolutely right. That you can have a single disc that supports both formats is incredibly frustrating for manufacturers. Consumers will not want to accept the added cost of the second format because nobody is going to pay twice for the same movie in two formats. Sony will push BD-exclusive content that won't be allowed on the HD-DVD side with the idea that consumers will buy the BD player over the HD-DVD to enjoy that additional content. But by then, consumers will be able to easily find that extra content online for free, whether it's legal or not.

You raise many good points!

This will probably end up like the DVD +/- R deal. These days who cares if it is +R or -R? My burner does both as well as DL and it was $39...

While it seems like too much money and time at the moment, those big boys will give in as they see the BD movies collect dust on the shelves of Best Buy.


I won't buy an HD-DVD or BD for quite sometime. By the time I do, some other format will wipe them both out more than likely. Look how cheap flash media is these days...



my $.02

Yes, but the difference between BD and HD is much greater than between +/- R, so it will take longer for combo writer drives to come down to a reasonable price. For me, the cost of media (factoring in degradation) will be the deciding factor, and that's why I am biased towards HD.

But I don't own either at the moment, nor do I have any plans to do so in the immediate future :) I completely agree that we should simply wait until one format wins.

That seems to be what a lot of people are going to do - including myself for the time being.

Is it at all possible that in 3 or so years that some other, even better product will come along, something like an Ultra-HD (ie -4k res) holographic recorder that will kill both formats?

I guess what I'm trying to say is with so many people staying on the fence, doesn't it leave the door open for some other product to wipe them both out?

Or is that level of technology too far away (say 10 years or so) so we will have to pick one or the other, or both?
john
evilgeniusentertainment.com

Well first lets remember that HD DVD isn't even a year old yet, and BD is even younger. I not 100% sure, but I don't think DVD was doing as well at the one year mark.

As for 4K stuff, we're not going to be 100% HDTV in the US in 3 years, I don't think consumers will be ready to re-purchase 4K tv sets at that point. Plus the broadcast industry is still revving up HD. Cable, Satellite and TV companies are not going to move to a new format any time soon.

Just my two cents.

I think if you follow history back, you'll see this happens a great deal.

Source: www.thedigitalbits.com

While I'm sure the BD group's marketing department will latch onto 2 or 3 to 1 sales ratios for BD movies, I have to seriously wonder how happy the BD group is behind closed doors. With about a 5 to 1 player ratio (counting PS3 of course), almost no HD DVD releases in Jan (thanks HD DVD studios) and a plethora of new BD releases, wouldn't sales in the 5-7 to 1 range be more expected?

HD DVD looks like they'll be really picking up the release schedule fairly soon and Toshiba's HD DVD players are still outselling stand alone BD players by a good clip (I think on Amazon recently the A2 was ranked #12 in DVD player sales, with the closest BD DVD player coming in at #49).

I still think the whole thing is silly and all studios should have simply released on both formats. Let the consumer decide.

What's more likely than a higher-quality format is a move away from using plastic discs to distribute video content. Consumers aren't buying either kind of HD player in significant numbers because of the two competing formats, as was predicted by those who warned the industry not to let this split develop. This leaves a gaping hole for some other distribution method to become more commonplace, most likely via the internet.

Consider that consumers are alredy used to sharing their digital photographs online and via email, plus now short video clips as well (e.g. YouTube). Now extrapolate for the spread of broadband internet connections, HD DVRs and multimedia computers attached to large monitors, and we have a plausible scenario for bypassing HD discs altogether. Bill gates predicted a couple of years ago that we would move away from physical media distribution within ten years, and while that sounded odd at the time it's starting to make sense now.

We're not even close to moving these media formats through the web in high numbers at this point; the bandwidth just isn't there. It will be, but expecting it to happen now or in a couple of years is not realistic. New codecs are constantly in development, but for the moment, AVC is the most efficient form we've got.
Consumers weren't expected to buy the HD playback systems in great numbers at this early date. Xmas 07 is the target for large scale purchasing. Purchases of HD displays was/is ahead of schedule, which might fuel the fire, but currently, I'll wager that at least 90% of consumers in the "real" world have no clue what HD DVD or Blu-ray is or means to them. The hard-core marketing of these products is just beginning. When you see BD on shelves in Walmart/Target/Sears, etc in number, then you'll know the time has come to expect massive sales.

I have to say that this seems very logical to us here, sitting at our powerful high speed video editing systems. But, the truth is that very very few people own the powerful computers that are needed for a straight jump to on-line distribution. And the vast majority use use AOL phone service for access, sick people! :) And, how are you saving what you bought for that matter!

I know many people with computers who share their great photos and all, but who don't have clue about what they are doing. They are using whatever software came with their computer or some third party stuff like Kodak or Epson or Canon. Their computers are a mess and they have no clue what to do.

I would guess that amoung those on this forum, 90%+ are pretty computer savy. Out in the real world it just is not that way.

DVDs will be around for a long time yet, for better or worse, and this war does mean something. Where are you going to store that nice HD movie you just downloaded?

This is just my opinion, but ask around. You see that the average person, who must be included in this revolution, is not yet ready.

Mike