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Old March 13th, 2007, 09:33 AM   #1
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P2...ok, this is getting silly now...

considering the advent of silly fast sd cards, in addition to the actual cost of them, im baffled as to why Panasonic havent pushed harder to get the larger capacity P2 cards out..

Im just amazed that despite the advent of upcoming cameras using the format, that capacity of the p2 itself is whats holding MANY people back from this incredible camera (im refering to the HVX here.. )

Now i dont know if its the file format or what have you which is causing these delays, or whether the fat file size restriction is another issue unto itself, but lets face it, many people are jumping ship because of it.

I for one am about a fortnight away from givin up on this camera and jumping the Canon wagon..

Ive ditched my 2 Z1's, and for a while now, Ive had 20grand sitting here waiting to invest in some new gear.. and slowly and surely Pana have kept me waiting...
P2? as far as im concerned are stupidly overpriced.. considering the additional storage facilities as well as archiving requirements needed to ensure integrity of the project up to delivery... lets face it, its a different ballgame and it requires afew elements to get the msot out of it, which dont have anything to do with the cam itself..

Dont get me wrong, im a Pana fan from way back.. my DVX100's are still the workhorses in my studio... but even travelling with a laptop and extra drive, in addition to the advent of BD as a feasable archiving method, P2 still doesnt cut it for run and gun longform projects..

So what do i do with my cash? Do i wait until a AVCHD P2 camcorder is released? With the compression giving me longer recording time but comparable results to DVCPRoHD... and still pooing on HDV? Or do i jump the HDV wagon, which i already did and regretted?

So whats gonna be Pana?

Do you want my money or not?

Sorry for the rant, but im looking at this camera and despite the additional workflow, the P2 system and recording format just cannot be denied that they are the way of the future.. but wht is Panas definition of "future" ??
Do they honestly thing this camera will last longer than 3 years before its supersceded? And in 3 years, what size P2 will we have? 32gb? 64gb? In 3 years, will teh cost of a 64gb P2 card be acceptable for a camera which will most likely be supersceded by a more efficient format?

Reason i was triggered was that I was just working with some 4yr old DV50 footage on an old Digisuite im fixing up for a buddy.. and u know what, the colour and motion is bloody incredible (and this footage is about 4 years old) compared to some of the "better" hdv ive shot in more welcomed ideal conditions..

Fair enough resolution is obviously different, but theres more to image than how many pixels i can fit into a box..

Anyways, its 130am, and im still at it..

Just curious what actual users take is on this, as im really feeling let down. I dont want to go HDV, but i will if i have to. And that decision is solely based on what Pana have in store with regard to P2

Right now, the A1 and XLH1 look like my best options..
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Old March 13th, 2007, 11:14 AM   #2
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And in 3 years, what size P2 will we have? 32gb? 64gb?
32GB will be here in about 9 months. In three years they'll be at 128GB. 10 hours of 720/24pN in-camera at once without swapping cards at all.
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Old March 13th, 2007, 11:23 AM   #3
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32GB will be here in about 9 months. In three years they'll be at 128GB. 10 hours of 720/24pN in-camera at once without swapping cards at all.
At what cost for 32GB and 128GB? What memory cards will be available from others in three years?
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Old March 13th, 2007, 11:38 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by Mike Teutsch View Post
At what cost for 32GB and 128GB?
Keep in mind that memory card cost seldom rises over time... only capacity does (including P2). For example I can buy a 1GB SD card for less than what I paid for a 64MB SD card three years ago.
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Old March 13th, 2007, 12:08 PM   #5
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Keep in mind that memory card cost seldom rises over time...
Yep. Same thing with hard drives. You can get 400GB for $150, but the $10 10GB hard drive is nowhere to be found. The business model for desktop hard drives is built around the $100 to $300 price range, and has been for some time.

What will be interesting is when hard drives have more capacity than most people need (most people don't edit 4k video...), and when solid state is big enough and fast enough to meet the needs. After a while, more performance is moot, and the new business model takes over.

This phenomena is described (in painful detail) in The Inventors Dilemma, which was published a number of years ago. The authors looked at the change from 15" hard drives (main frames) to 7" hard drives (mini computers) to 3-1/2" drives (desktop PCs). In each case the cheaper technology had enough performance to do the job, and the old business model of the expensive technology couldn't adapt.
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Old March 13th, 2007, 12:16 PM   #6
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Keep in mind that memory card cost seldom rises over time... only capacity does (including P2). For example I can buy a 1GB SD card for less than what I paid for a 64MB SD card three years ago.
You are absolutly correct. But, those other cards have many applications and users. SD cards and other things enjoy wide spread use, nearly universal standardization with drives. I'm not sure that the P2 will follow the same route. We will see soon.

Mike
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Old March 13th, 2007, 02:16 PM   #7
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I just bought an 8 gig Flash Card for my Nikon $79.99
It is fast enough to do 1 fps timelapse for over 900
frames....I also did a 5000 frame exposure bracketed
time-lapse at a 6 sec interval. And it is interesting to
note that RED announced CF, Express Card and Sata
capabilities. Not to mention an on-board 320 gig
drive below the cost of an 8 gig P2 card or the Firestore????
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Old March 13th, 2007, 04:08 PM   #8
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Peter,

I've been caught up in the same purchase, decision making scenario /
Panasonic/Canon taking all factors involved in consideration.

My final decision was built around the +- 3 year projection for devolpment on p2 ,taking projected purchase costs in consideration.

Allowing the same time span for portable hdsdi recording devices to develop
as a more affordable medium to make uncompressed accuisition an affordable
reality. I also took the development of intermediate codec technology and compression technology in consideration as a second affordable option to
fully uncompressed hdsdi ingest for the same 3 year period.

Knowing the technical implications shooting & editing Mpeg 2, taking all given
factors involved in the Texas shootout and feedback from this forum members
in consideration , I went shooting with both the cams.

Visiting American & European production crew gave me first hand field reports
on both the cameras taking our harsh conditions in consideration.

My final OBJECTIVE / BUY A 3- IN -ONE -CAM .
SD - HDV - UNCOMPRESSED HD VIA HDSDI.
- USING HDV MERELY AS A CROSSOVER MEDIUM TO FUTURE UNCOMPRESSED
OR COMPRESSED INTERMEDIATE PORTABLE RECORDABLE MEDIUMS.

This forum played a great part in the final decision / I,ve bought the
Canon XLH1 combined with a Cineform NLE workflow.

Working for the past 5 months on the gear has been a positive experience
taking in consideration that there's different tools for different needs and
that my pick depended on my aesthetic preferences / working style and post
production workflow.

Greetings.

Herman / Cape-Town.
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Old March 13th, 2007, 07:12 PM   #9
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Personally I would wait until NAB, get some face-time with the HPX500 and go that route, rather than going back to any iteration of HDV. With (4) P2 slots rather than the limiting 2-slots on the HVX your long-form needs would easily be met - especially since the 16gb cards are to be available at the time the camera is released and, with the larger imager and added pro-features for both lenses and audio controls you'd be in the best of all worlds.

But at the end of the day - speaking from 20+ years of pro-shooting experience - you've got to be happy with your equipment choices. Creativity suffers when you're dealing with hardware frustrations so if waiting for the next-gen P2 cam doesn't fit your timeline then maybe the tape-based HDV cams are better suited for you.
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Old March 13th, 2007, 07:16 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Jon Fairhurst View Post
What will be interesting is when hard drives have more capacity than most people need
Personally I don't think we will ever really reach this point because it's a constantly moving target. I remember very clearly being in awe of my 20MB Apple Hard Disk 20 in 1985, and I couldn't even imagine filling that up.

A one terrabyte drive can only store ~250 standard definition DVD's, and it seems likely people may want several thousand in their libraries someday. And of course you will also have google maps of the whole planet at 1 meter resolution pre-installed on your laptop (or iPhone) :-)
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Old March 13th, 2007, 08:00 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Boyd Ostroff View Post
Personally I don't think we will ever really reach this point because it's a constantly moving target
Be careful with that "ever" word. Time doesn't rest. ;)

You make a good point. Expectations constantly grow.

However, I wonder if we won't see disc-free laptops before long. Businesses want people to have e-mail and Excel, but don't care if their sales force can carry hundreds of DVD files with them.

I've read that some people are using disc-free Linux network machines. They load the OS from the network into RAM and all storage is networked in.

One reason that I'm hoping for fast(!) solid state memory is that I'm a composer who uses sample libraries. Currently samplers load the start of every sample into RAM. When you play a note, the RAM-stored note plays, and the disc streams as the heads seek the rest of the sample. Hopefully, the data from the HDD is there before the RAM runs dry.

The problem is that RAM is expensive, and the OS hosts only so much memory, so us composers can't load up our full templates on one machine. Plus, HDD speeds limit the polyphony we can get.

If solid state is just a bit faster than an HDD, we get more polyphony. But the real win is that there is virtually no seek time, so we can play straight from the solid-state HDD replacement.

For composers we don't need write speed. We don't need much more than a few hundred gig. But if we can get rid of read seek time, life will get much, much better!
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Old March 13th, 2007, 08:30 PM   #12
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This phenomena is described (in painful detail) in The Inventors Dilemma, which was published a number of years ago.
Thanks for the reminder to buy this book. Here are the specifics :

The Innovator's Dilemma: The Revolutionary Book that Will Change the Way You Do Business (Collins Business Essentials) (Paperback)
by Clayton M. Christensen
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Old March 13th, 2007, 11:57 PM   #13
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Peter try it, you might like it.
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Old March 14th, 2007, 01:30 AM   #14
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Thanks for the reminder to buy this book.
You might check you local library.

The book has a great title and presents a great analysis about static business models and dynamic technologies. But they can't sell a 50 page book. So they add a few hundred pages of details and stats about old hard drives. Some chapters are dry as vermouth.

The concept is brilliant, yet you can digest the meaningful parts in an evening or two. BTW, there are now some additional, newer books in the series.
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Old March 14th, 2007, 03:28 AM   #15
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Peter,

AVCHD is maxed out at 24mb/s. At that rate it will look better than HDV since it is based on a more efficient codec than long GOP Mpeg 2. However, it will not come close to DVCProHD. What I believe you are referring to is AVC-Intra, which I believe will be available as an option in a couple of new cameras from Panasonic. AVC-Intra will record to the same P2 cards that you seemingly hate, so there won't be any advantage there.

Currently, AVCHD is being sold on the consumer market. It can record to multiple formats, including hard drive, San Disk, DVD. The highest quality, as far as I know, is around 13 mb/s, which probably looks no better than HDV. Plus, since there is currently no real NLE solution, the format is not even practical at this time. I might consider the format over HDV if the chips are at least 1/3rd inch, 3 chips, at least a 16x optical zoom lens, quality up to at least 20mb/s, NLE with a native editing solution and professional features that are similar to the pro hdv cameras like the Sony HVR V1 or Canon XHA1, but I would never consider it as a replacement for a dvcprohd camera such as the HVX 200. Maybe we'll have more answers at NAB.
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