Not too sure of the details, but it's my understanding that China has a unique standard for domestic HD - and it's a variation of HD-DVD

So I think regardless of the US market results, HD-DVD is not going to go away a la Beta and VHS.

My forecast? No clear winner ever.

Yes, China has their own standard but I'm pretty sure that's based on red-laser technology, like the Avec and JVC HD players here.

HD-DVD would probably be on its way out by now if someone wasn't pumping a lot of money into sustaining the format. We'll see in the next year or two how well that holds up or whether either format gains enough momentum to really make a difference.

Well, I'm over my head knowledgewise on this so I asked someone who really really knows as he was intimately involved in DVD development in Japan.

To summarize

1) Both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are supposed to have red laser for downward compatibility. I also recall that HD-DVD and red laser focus at the same depth into the media, whereas Blu-Ray does not

2) The Chinese standard is identical with HD-DVD at the hardware level with some differences at the firmware level

3) The DVD forum has released a new spec (DVD Rec) which is H264 (Mpeg4/AVC) and laser independent and can work with Hidef and regular DVD. Toshiba has already announced a recorder based on this.

So I think the substance of my comment is true, ie with hardware compatible HD-DVD as the standard in China, HD-DVD is not going to go away regardless of what the US movie studios do or don't do. The dog has gotten too big for the tail to wag it anymore.

Just my personal opinion, based on having had Great Danes for years! You could wag a chihuahua by the tail if it didn't bite you first, but wagging a Great Dane would be an altogether different proposition. Although they're generally so amiable that they wouldn't mind if you tried! It's just that you'd probably get a fatal hernia trying.

I stand corrected, or more specifically it appears the Chinese have an even newer HD standard than the one I was familiar with.

Old "EVD" format: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_Versatile_Disc

New "CH-DVD" format: http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...sc-format.html

My friend in Japan told me that there is another Chinese standard for red laser, but it appears to be going nowhere now that the CH-DVD standard has appeared.

That seems to be what you were thinking of.