OK, so if your logic is correct and DVCProHD isn't Canon's path (and I tend to agree with you from what I've read), and Canon doesn't use HDV (which hasn't been completely discounted), what else is there?

Just a new proprietary codec? Or is there another route (WMV-HD)? Others?

That's why I have such a hard time with this speculation...as much as I would love to believe it. Canon has never introduced a new format (digital or analog) as far as I know. They've always piggy backed on the accepted format of the day. I don't mean that as a slam against Canon, it's just what they've always done.

On top of that, as I said before, they've never made any of the accompanying hardware that comes with a new codec, such as decks. They've never needed to because they've always produced cameras that used established formats.

So, if they were to come out with a brand new proprietary codec (which I seriously seriously doubt), they would have two options:

1) Produce a deck, or series of decks, to accompany the new format.

2) Create the new camera with hard drive or solid state recording, eliminating the need for a deck.


Then again, as improbable as this all sounds to me, I suppose that the advent of HD is an opportunity for manufacturers to try to grab some new ground with consumers. So maybe Canon will take this opportunity to change the way they've done business in the past, and actually take a risk in the marketplace.

The only thing I know for certain right now is....yes, Area 51 is fun.
:)

I agree, but you didn't bite on my Wondows Media Video codec speculation. I've got to say that I rendered some helicopter gun camera footage using the WMV-HD codec available in Vegas, and it was exceptionally clean and clear with an incredibly small file size. What are the odds Canon and the Evil Empire Microsoft could join up? Panny is positioning themselves closer with Apple it appears.

I agree with Luis. Unless for some reason, someone is now slipping mind altering drugs into the Canon Marketing and Engineer department heads' coffees, I seriously doubt they go a new format. Maybe a codec that's jammed into miniDV, but even that requires a huge effort to get everyone on board. A new Format (DVCPro for instance) seemed to require a massive task on Panasonic's side. Building Decks, tapes, getting NLE supporters behind it - cameras etc. I mean, really, are people going to go a totally new format, buying new hardware for their workflow etc for 1 camera made by Canon, I doubt it. I mean Canon doesn't even make pro cameras (As far as their Division designation goes of course), and they don't make decks, or monitors or anything. They make lenses, 2 higher end cameras (XLxxx and XMxxx) and consumer cameras. They're not a big player.

But who knows, maybe all that will change.
Aaron

I agree, but you didn't bite on my Wondows Media Video codec speculation

If Canon has decided to not support HDV, I doubt they will turn to WMV-HD as an alternative, given that it would suffer from the same problems.

The microsoft codec, if I understand it correctly, is designed as a delivery codec, not an aquisition format. While the stuff you rendered out may look fantastic, try pulling it back into After Effect, doing some compositing and color correction on it, and then rendering it back out. My guess is that the footage would fall apart faster than DV due to the high and variable compression.

Of course, Aaron brought up a huge point as well, that hadn't even occurred to me yet, a new codec would mean having to get NLE support and that is a huge hurdle that I doubt Canon wants to deal with.

My bet is that they will announce HDV cameras by the end of the year.
Until then we can dream though.

Yeah. As much as I'd love them to license DVCPro (Is anyone even able to do that?!) I think Panasonic would tell them "where to go" unless they got a pretty good deal out of it. I mean if Canon dumped DVCProHD into an XL3 then of course they'll need P2 as well (Or some slot in HDD solution I guess) and so you'd be getting something like an HVX, but with Interchangable lenses. I think that would compete a little too closely with the HVX for Panasonic to want to risk that. Of course, part of the deal could be to not support some of the things that the HVX is, say 1080p or variable framerates - but then, would it be worth Canon's while?

I'm really interested in Canon's reply but I'm not holding my breath. I am probably getting a DVX102a soon to update my XM2 and then wait for the HVX to arrive here in NZ which won't be until early next year I'd imagine. By then who knows what will be around.

Aaron

Actually, the XL2 and GL2 are now listed at canondv.com as their Professional 3 CCD series cameras.

"They make lenses, 2 higher end cameras (XLxxx and XMxxx) and consumer cameras. They're not a big player."

As far as I know, Canon is a huge player in the pro Still Camera department. They make their own CMOS chips along with the cameras, lenses, image stabilization and firmware. I think it's totally possible that they create something on their own. I don't think that would happen, but they certainly have the technology and R&D to pull it off.

I know that CMOS is not the same as CCD and the application is different in still cameras, but I think they are in a good position to make a move with the new HD wave - both for Consumer and Pro applications.

They're certainly pitched to the professional market, but they come from the very same group that produces the ZR, Elura and Optura.

You're right, Canon pretty much dominates the digital SLR market. They are a semiconductor company, a camera company and a lens company--that's the best position you could be in. Clearly they have a lot of R&D in CMOS technology for still camera applications since they pretty much invented that field. So you have to wonder, why don't they put all this muscle into the video division? It's probably not a technological problem because ARRI is using a Super 35mm CMOS chip in their D-20 camera and they've been able to get the data rate out of that sensor for frame rates up to 150 fps.

I'm guessing there are other forces at work here. It may be a legal issues, like patents owned by other companies that Canon does not want to pay royalties for, or it may be internal marketing issues like conflicts with the broadcast lens division.

But seeing how Canon has the sensor expertise and the camera expertise, I don't see why they can't go hog wild and make a blowout product. The only question is, do they want to?

FYI: Article on the ARRI D-20 here : http://www.arri.com/prod/cam/d_20/articles.htm

Thanks for the link Tim, now I wonder who made the Arri CMOS chip...?

Canon could certainly license the dvcpro from panasonic. Other companies do it for their video cameras already, such as Ikegami.

Let's hope they do exactly that. I don't think Panasonic would have any problem accepting the royalty checks.

Canon could also license sony's xdcam technology.

Or Canon could easily also easily use HDV if they really wanted to, they just have to call it something else.

Let's hope they don't. We'll probably know in July.

What are the chances that Canon sits out this year for HD all together, sees which HD format is the most popular (HDV using MiniDV transports or DVCPRO on flash), and then licenses one of them for use in some uber-cam for Summer 2006?

That would be the way to go for Canon; it will give time to XL2 get old and them to be ready to use the best-selling technology of the day.

I hope they are intelligent and do it like this. Probably right now they are banging the head against a wall because of 1080i HDV and looking at JVC with greedy eyes. Lucky for them we think we know their inside politics of arriving late to the party and they have time to fix it.

In my wishes Canon chooses DVCPROHD. That would give them my money, but then, they should announce it before HVX go out.

XL3 might have 1080i and 720p recording.

In either case, Canon has to do something. Technology for video has been improving and evolving so rapidly that I don't think there ever is a "too early" or "too late" time to enter - the tech improvements happen to appear seamlessly. IMO, it's best to come in with as flexible a solution as possible and come in with it early. You can only improve on product that has already been out for a while and you get the customer feedback.

The XL2 came in a little too late, and if Canon takes their time with the XL3, it will be quickly surpassed by what Panasonic, Sony and JVC have already learned from their own models in the field. Be bold Canon!