HDTV proliferation
 

A new survey from Panasonic shows that one in every four U. S. households either own or plan to own an HDTV set by the end of 2006.

Link: http://www.digitalproducer.com/artic...e.jsp?id=36377

With the multiplication of HDTV channels and the penetration of HDTV into households, there will obviously be increased demand for HDTV content. Coupled with the release of the HVX200, good content producers now have 1) an increasing market for their HDTV programs 2) an affordable acquisition vehicle that produces footage that will probably be acceptable to most HDTV networks.

2006 is shaping up to be an interesting year, don't you think?!

And when Sony launch the PS3 this year, that's going to put a lot of Blu Ray HD players into peoples homes too.

The PS3 is going to be a Blu-Ray player???

- ShannonRawls.com

Yes. And probably one of the most affordable player options, at least for the first few months after the BluRay roll out.

Microsoft had originally planned to use BluRay or HD-DVD with the XBOX360 (they had not committed to either format), but as the releases of the two new disc formats seem to keep getting perpetually delayed, Microsoft standardized on a DVD drive last spring. As of this time last year, we were being told that HD-DVD would be available 2nd qurter '05 and BluRay would be no later than end of 3rd quarter. Now we're looking at BluRay in about April (maybe) and HD-DVD at about the same time (maybe).

I expect that the introduction of mainstream HD DVD players will spur a large jump in demand for HD videography, such that it could quickly become the desired standard for anyone spending any significant money on video services. We've got HD cameras and we've got HD editing solutions; give us the delivery mechanism and things could heat up in a real hurry.

I'd also expect that by the end of 2006, most of the people who have been skeptical about investing in HD gear so far will have changed their tune. Look for a lot of used SD cameras up for sale next year...

I read an article which said they are basically going to "give you" a BluRay disk player with the PS3 in order to get a lot of them out into the market as quickly as possible. They said that when consumer BluRay players hit the shelves they're expected to cost around $1,000 but I think the PS3 is expected to come in around $400.

in-stat market research predicts that 21% of all tv households will have at least one hdtv by the end of next year... but if you read your video business magazine, in-stat also sez "the intense media interest in next-generation optical disc formats is selling lots of magazines but will not have much impact on the hollywood "packaged goods" business until late in the decade."

as videographers, we need to be concerned about delivery formats, not tv sets, because nobody pays to watch content that they can't see.

some of these dvinfo.net forums have gotten themselves all wrapped up in what amounts to a slowly fading business model, as evidenced by flat dvd sales growth, and a hollywood movie business that's been declining for the last three years in a row.

meanwhile, a whole lot of advertising $$$ have been re-routed to alternative delivery methods over the internet, with things like cell phones also lurking on the horizon... all of that content can be handled with the sd cameras that we have in our possession right now, and there is money to be made in those markets.

The Panasonic survey says 26% and In-stat says 21%. It’s probably safe to assume that the actual penetration rate by the end of 2006 will be somewhere in that range. In-stat’s reference to “Hollywood packaged goods”, is referring to film studio after-marketing of feature films on high definition optical disc. Feature films are obviously a large source of potential media to be delivered on hi-def optical discs, but there are many other genres of media that will be delivered on hi-def optical, including business videos, event videos, special interest videos, instructional videos, and many more. If I’m not mistaken, DVD achieved the fastest market penetration of any display medium in history. It’s feasible that the penetration rate for hi-def optical discs will be much more rapid than projected.

There’s a wider diversity of members of DV Info Net than just videographers. I’ll use myself as an example. For national television programs I function regularly as an executive producer, producer, director, editor, scriptwriter, syndicator, DP, and videographer. On tiny projects I may wear all of those hats. On large projects I may wear only one of those hats. I’m very concerned about “tv sets”. Each of the 12 broadcast and cable networks I contribute to are also very concerned about “tv sets”. Their viewers do indeed pay to watch the network/channel content. And those networks and channels do indeed pay my company to produce quality content for them. In my post that opened this thread I remarked that there is an increase in HDTV content demand. The networks and myself are very aware of the potential ancillary income streams from hi-def optical disc sales of television programs. It has been a viable revenue stream in the standard definition business model and should be the same looking forward in the h-def business model. That said, optical disc sales of programs have always been just one of many revenue streams available, and should be looking forward.

DVD sales growth was the fastest of any video delivery medium in history. The penetration rate is enormous. It has flattened recently for what may be two factors: 1) DVD players are so inexpensive and have been available for so long, that there is a natural plateau in penetration rate 2) news for the past year about the pending distribution of hi-def optical has created a new “we’ll wait for a hi-def player to go with our new HDTV set” mentality among consumers. The Hollywood movie business has indeed been declining, but as mentioned above, that is only one of the content delivery sources for hi-def optical. Sales of HDTV sets and affordable consumer HD camcorders are brisk. It seems like consumers and small businesses that are willing to spend for an HDTV, an HD camcorder, and desktop HD editing software, should be willing to spend another small amount for a hi-def optical recorder/player to complete their system.

Alternative delivery methods (VOD, cell phone streaming, etc.) are very viable ancillary revenue streams that EVERY production entity, whether they are a Hollywood studio, television network, or tiny production house, should be paying close attention to. Producers should be planning for every feasible way to maximize the revenue potential of their productions. SD cameras have been great, and will continue to be used for some time. But SD-only cameras and editing systems are useless for satisfying the increasing demand for HDTV programming and it’s ancillary hi-def revenue streams. The new generation of affordable hi-def cameras each has the ability to shoot in SD if needed. Each of them also give producers the important option to give their footage and programs “long legs” by shooting and editing in hi-def, and simply doing HD and SD masters of the programs as needed. You don’t have that forward-looking option if you’re still using an SD-only camera and editing system.

Why own a single-blade pocketknife when there are affordable multi-blade Swiss Army knives now available?

that is not correct, the article clearly refers to the ongoing use of the current sd dvd's that we are now using, and it clearly states that the current dvd marketplace will not be changing to hd anytime soon... the quote was very clear on that.

you cannot project an hd dvd adoption rate based on what happened when sd dvd's took over for videotape, because it's two entirely different situations... i don't recall seeing in-stat or any media publication making any predictions of that nature, that might back up what you are saying.

you also mis-interpreted what i said about dvd sales growth... yes, dvd player sales are flat, but what i was referring to are the sales of dvd discs, aka, hollywood packaged goods... that market is not expanding like it used to, because people are moving to other forms of media consumption... which is why it's the delivery formats that we need to be concerned with, not hdtv's.

the percentage of people on dvinfo.net who are working in the tv business will be very minor compared to the overall videographer population out here, so the vast majority of us will not benefit from new formats like hdv, until there is a delivery method for the format.

talking about hdtv penetration is not really relevant... what we need to know is what the delivery format is, and when it will reach critical mass... and we should not be ignoring alternative delivery formats.

The build will be slow as the industry begins to educate people and phase out SD... and by slow I mean a decade... I think in 5 years we will be in a place to start delivering HD en masse, then it will beging to catch on as the cost of the players, monitors and media approach the price of similar SD equipment.

Remember that of the 20%-25% of people expected to have an HDTV by next year most all of those will be middle to higher income people getting TVs 42" or larger. MOST people have a 32" SD set or smaller and will not upgrade until they can get a similar size for the same money... many people do not have space for a big TV. It is also worth noting that TV, VHS, DVD, etc. etc. etc. really needs to bust the $300 mark to begin really taking off. For HDTV I think it will be $499...and not a penny more. Then you have the question... does HD really benefit a TV under 42" for average Joe?

The other thing people fail to realize is that right now, as evidenced in an article I linked in another thread, only HALF the people who own an HDTV have even seen a frame of HD on it! And half that havent... THINK THEY HAVE!!! Most people have yet to see a good digital SD signal...

HD is happening but slower than most on the bleeding edge seem to think...



ash =o)

Listen to Dan... CONVENIENCE is dominating the market place... MP3s are compressed and dont sound NEAR as good as SACD or DVD-A...heck even as CDs for that matter but the consumer has spoken LOUD AND CLEAR that MP3 is "good enough" and much more convenient. Anyone wanna bet me that more people will be watching video from Ipod type devices and cell phones than from ALL HD sources combined for the next few years and beyond?



ash =o)

"A new survey from Panasonic shows that one in every four U. S. households either own or plan to own an HDTV set by the end of 2006."

I guess Panasonic hasn't seen actual numbers reported by the folks that sell TVs, but if Panasonic says such a ting, it's a great marketing scheme to get folks to buy their TVs.

As videographers the pertinent question isn't what delivery formats will be popular, it's about acquisition. If you want to be sure to be able to meet the needs of all potential customers, it's a given that sooner or later you're going to want to have the capability to record in HD. Once you have that capability any concerns about adoption rate statistics become secondary, since the best customers will expect HD acquisition regardless of the intended primary output. That's where the statistics are misleading, because what percentage of people own HDTVs won't be what determines the percentage of video projects shot in HD.

SD will be relevant for a long time for delivery purposes, but it's relevance for acquisition could drop off quickly in the next couple of years or so.

No way ...
 

... will 20% or even 10% of households in the US have an HDTV set by end of 2006. I doubt that 10% of US households could even tell you what HDTV was by end of 2006 -- it is dreaming in technicolor to believe otherwise, IMHO.

The survey referenced spoke to 1,000 people in a nation of 300,000,000 ... and tossed in the softball and ultimately meaningless option 'planned to own' -- what does that mean? I might plan to own one by year end, but not get around to buying until 2010, I guess!

HDTV might be a real market, and even a significant one sometime soon -- but it won't be found in 20% of households before the next decade.

JMHO

It’s gonnna be at least 10 - 15 years before HDTV really begins to creep onto the market. I know people who are JUST NOW getting DVD players, and VHS has just started to be phased out by retailers and distributors. And then there is the issue of benefit. DVD had a substantial benefit over VHS which HD DVDs will not have over DVDs. A realistic image of the video market is not to be had at the most expensive section of Best Buy, it's to be had at the sale section of WalMart. When HDTV sets are going for $299.00, and HD DVD players are going for $150.00, then things will just be BEGINNING to roll for HDTV.

One thing that might be taken into consideration is that the winter olympics will take place during early 2006. And during the summer there will be soccer championship (but soccer might not be that popular in the USA?). From what I have heard the olympics will be recorded and broadcasted in HDTV (at least in the USA). Big sportsevents like that always attracts massive marketing campaigns from manufacturers of media-products. Last time there were a lot of sales of big plasma TVs. So it might be a factor to count in...

I watched the last winter Olympics in HD 4 years ago. And I have watched at least 3 superbowls in HD already, as well as countless hours of sports and scripted network programs. HD content is really widely available now through broadcast, cable and satellite. We don't need any more prime HD showcase events to get the ball rolling on HDTV because it has already been rolling for quite some time now.

The people who have HD sets and have seen real HDTV on their set, really know what HD is and they love it. Even the most casual TV viewers that I have come across that have seen HDTV in their homes have been amazed by it. Once you see HD, you really don't like analog anymore. It has almost the same effect that color NTSC sets yielded to B&W TV viewers. Once people see it, they want it.

And now that programming is widely available and what appears to be a firm switchover date of 2009 has been announced, I continue to see a steady stream of HDTV converts coming. But I do not see them coming from people who do not yet own a DVD player. These people are the minority. And these people won't we watching TV on their cell phones either. They will be reading books.

LCD and other "thin" TV technologies have won converts to households that were previously resistant to big TV's because of their size of the tube RP CRT days. No one is buying Analog TV's now (just look at the analog footprint compared to HD ready sets in stores like BustBuy). As people decide to get a new TV, they are all buying an HD set (especially for their primary TV). Event Videographers and small production houses will find it impossible to ignore HD once non-broadcast HD media systems take hold. While I do not think that these formats will take off as fast as DVD did, I do not think the vast majority will be able to ignore HD completely past 2007.

Personally, I think that I would do better financially to hold off as long as I can on a HVX and new HD editing system and get on board in the 2nd generation of these products. But I also think that with the right marketing approach, there could be a real opportunity for early adopters in the small market and event segment by gearing up as soon as consumer HD players starting hitting the shelves. Regardless, anyone in the video production business should watch the market carefully and have a plan to switch to HD soon after their customers start requesting it.

OK, I took the time to research what In-Stat has to say on the subject. I’m not a member of In-Stat and I won’t purchase their reports just for the purpose of this post, however in reviewing their abstract for a report entitled “The Changing Face of Studio Video Sales: Grow New Markets, Push High Definition, Get Interactive”, In-Stat says:

“By 2009, our forecast model predicts a worldwide retail value of
US$ 50 Billion, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 5.4% for annual sales value of Hollywood Video Content sold at retail. The DVD value will hold its own, but much of the growth will be due to:
* Portable Player products
* Next-Generation optical discs
* Movie & TV Downloads

We expect the three alternative delivery formats to gain momentum in 2006, and continue growing through 2009. The coming few years will be very interesting ones for the Hollywood studios.”

Link: http://www.instat.com/catalog/Ccatal...12#IN0501913CM

This doesn’t support what you’re claiming In-Stat’s position is on DVD sales and hi-def optical sales (their term above = “Next generation optical discs”). In-Stat claims that “DVD value will hold its own”, and that hi-def optical will “gain momentum in 2006, and continue through 2009.”



Nobody is disputing that content producers need to pay close attention to alternative delivery formats. In-Stat’s third growth area they mention is “Movie & TV downloads”. I acknowledged that need fully in my previous post on this thread. My quote: “Alternative delivery methods (VOD, cell phone streaming, etc.) are very viable ancillary revenue streams that EVERY production entity, whether they are a Hollywood studio, television network, or tiny production house, should be paying close attention to.”. My whole business model is built around maximizing technology and potential revenue models, including producing HDTV, standard def television, video, streaming media, web sites, DVD, and CDRom. My business exemplifies media convergence. Link: www.cut4.tv

As producers we don’t need to be concerned with the penetration of HDTV’s into the populace? Consumer Electronics Association figures don’t support your statement. CE projects an HDTV penetration rate in the U.S. of 30% by the end of 2006. Link: http://members.ce.org/publications/v...category_id=37

HDTV is now available to 19 million, or 91% of Comcast basic cable customers. Comcast is the leading U.S. cable provider. Link: http://www.cmcsk.com/phoenix.zhtml?c...136&highlight=


The U.S, Senate reported in 2004 that as of November 2003, 70 million households in the U.s. had access to HDTV. Link: http://judiciary.senate.gov/testimon...41&wit_id=2951

70% of U.S. primetime programming is now available on HDTV. Link: http://www.brokenremote.tv/content/view/1828/2/

And “talking about HDTV penetration is not really relevant”? I disagree. (also check out the links to articles that disagree with your position that I have placed in my next post)


How do you know the percentage of DV Info Net members that do at least some work in TV? I don’t believe Chris Hurd has ever published any statistics on that. With media convergence, huge numbers of media content producers now work across several platforms and genres. I’ve been working in TV and video content production since the 1970’s, web site production since 1997, and DVD/CD-Rom production since 1998. With the affordability of desktop video, NLE software, small form-factor cameras, etc, why would media content producers limit themselves to just TV, just video, or any single kind of media production? With the new HVX200 and HDV cameras, and increasing support for them by editing NLE software and hardware, why would producers of media projects not shoot and edit in formats that provide “long legs” for their footage, and a multiplicity of uses, now and for the future? SD won’t do that, and the new generation of DVCProHD (HVX) and HDV cameras will shoot SD and HD. You also ignored my previous note about the steep increase in HD uses for business and event video. Increasingly, businesses are asking producers to produce projects in hi-def for display use at trade shows. Event clients are increasingly asking for hi-def coverage. Why not upgrade to cameras that allow you to shoot HD or SD for TV, business, events, indie films, or a multitude of uses? Panasonic’s most recent magazine ads for the HVX suggest 18 separate production HD and SD uses for the camera, everything from television, to video, indie films, feature films, stock footage, events, and on and on. Why would someone with such a versatile camera, matched with a capable editing system, limit themselves to one type of production genre, or just being a “videographer”. You have no desire to also be a director, producer, and to produce content for multiple types of media and delivery systems? If you want to survive and flourish in the media production business, every additional skill set and media genre you can master enhances your business.

OK, so you’re saying to simply ignore other potential revenue streams and simply concentrate completely on streaming to iPods and cell phones? Why not produce all your content in affordable DVCProHD or HDV, then upres it to HDCAM for HDTV airing, downres it to SD for multiple SD applications: SD television, video, compression for Web streaming, etc.? Our media convergent competition won’t be ignoring those other revenue streams, so why should we?

Ok, you’ve all taken roughly the same position on the current and predicted future penetration of HDTV in the United States. Let me illustrate for you the heavyweight entities that disagree with your position:

The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) 30% HDTV penetration in the U.S. by the end of 2006. Link: http://members.ce.org/publications/v...category_id=37

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission reports that by September 2004 HDTV over cable was available to subscribers in 177 markets, including all of the top 100 DMA markets, and 90 million television households were passed by a cable system offering HDTV. Link (page 32): http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:1...on+rates&hl=en


“70% of U.S. primetime programming available in HDTV”. Link: http://www.brokenremote.tv/content/view/1828/2/

“As of April 2005, 75% of U.S. television households could receive HDTV from their local cable operator.” Link: http://www.crutchfieldadvisor.com/S-...04.html?page=2

"Digital television, particularly HDTV (high-definition television) remains the fastest-growing segment of the consumer electronics industry, driven by strong consumer demand for flat-panel and rear-projection HDTV products," said CEA President and CEO Gary Shapiro.” (April 2005 HDTV magazine article). Link: http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/articles...gur.php?page=3

CEA projects that 2.1 million Digital TV products will be sold in 2002, 5.4 million in 2004, 8 million in 2005 and 10.5 million in 2006. Link: http://www.azcentral.com/12news/hdtv...aqs_index.html
In-Stat had forecast 8.5 million digital TV sets and monitors to ship to dealers in 2006. Now, it is predicting that figure will be more like 20 million—and all those sets will be all-digital. Link: http://www.emedialive.com/Articles/R...ArticleID=4917

“CEA Market Research projects that 4.3 million DTV units will be sold in
2003, 5.8 million in 2004, 8.3 million in 2005, 11.9 million in 2006 and
16.2 million in 2007. DTV products are defined as integrated sets and monitors displaying active vertical scanning lines of at least 480p and,
in the case of integrated sets, receiving and decoding ATSC terrestrial digital transmissions.” http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:e...+figures&hl=en

“Gary Shapiro, the CEA's president and CEO, launched the proceedings by recognizing the roles of the various industries in the expanding popularity of DTV hardware and programming, which seemed to reach a critical mass in 2003. Statistics included surpassing the 9 million mark in DTV sets sold to date, of which over 87% were HDTV-capable (the remainder being SDTV or EDTV sets).” Link: http://www.tecnec.com/news.asp

(CEA – 2004 HDTV Summit) – “a much smaller number of households — only 2.7% — are currently using their DTV sets to actually tune in HDTV signals (projected to increase to nearly 33% by 2007). - over 60 million DTV sets are projected to be in the hands of consumers by 2007.Despite the relatively low numbers of viewers watching true HDTV signals, consumers are buying HDTV-capable TVs in record numbers. The CEA recently revised its sales projections upward for the next several years.” Link: http://www.tecnec.com/news.asp

"An increase in HDTV sales will fuel the demand for other services including high-definition VOD, local content, primetime programming, and movies.” Link: http://www.rtoonline.com/Content/Art...Grow102805.asp

“At the same time, more and more digital and HD content is being created and produced each year by television stations, the major networks and news networks – now more than 7 million hours -- with approximately 10% of it produced in HDTV.” Link: http://www.tmcnet.com/tmcnet/columni...gy-savicky.htm

“According to Peter Wilson of High Definition & Digital Cinema Ltd., in
terms of market penetration HD televisions were present in only 17
percent of U.S. households last year, a number that will grow to 22
percent this year and will exceed 55 percent in 2008”

SimmTester: September 15, 2005
http://www.simmtester.com/page/news/...s.asp?num=8484

“The lowering of prices has generated a dramatic uptick in sales, according to Wilson. Since 1998, 17 million HD-capable televisions have been sold, but 3.8 million of that total has occurred just between January and June 2005.” (IBC September 2005 report). Link: http://www.simmtester.com/page/news/...s.asp?num=8484

“In terms of market penetration, Wilson said HD televisions were present in only 17 percent of U.S. households last year, a number that will grow to 22 percent this year and will exceed 55 percent in 2008.” (IBC September 2005 report). Link: http://www.simmtester.com/page/news/...s.asp?num=8484

“ESPN’s Burns was among the panelists who hailed the seemingly inevitable transition from analog to digital TV in epochal terms. “The perfect storm is about to hit the United States,” he said. He predicted that 100 million HDTV sets would be sold by the end of 2008, forcing broadcasters to follow the example of ESPN in offering virtually all TV content in HD.” (IBC September 2005 report). Link: http://www.simmtester.com/page/news/...s.asp?num=8484


Sorry guys, but the experts, government, and trade organizations I’ve listed and linked above do not agree with your posts. Rather than be negative about the prospects for HDTV penetration, you might consider that rapid HDTV penetration can be a real bonanza for your businesses if you equip yourselves to capitalize on the possibilities for revenue. Think about adding new skill sets, workflows, equipment, and marketing materials that will help you cash in on a diversity of high-definition scenarios.

Sorry, the content is not close to there... less than 3% of all broadcast minutes in most markets is in HD... if it increases by that same amount every 6 months we are still 8+ years away from HD content being more prevalent than SD content.

As far as acquisition? I dont buy it at all. There are tons of great Beta, DigiBeta, and other 2/3" CCD SD cams like the sdx900 that will be great for acquisition for the forseeable future.


ash =o)

Where did I say that? My point is that COMPELLING CONTENT AND CREATIVITY will get you more work and get it seen by more people than merely to shoot it with more lines of resolution.


ash =o)

Your quote that I quoted was:
"MP3s are compressed and dont sound NEAR as good as SACD or DVD-A...heck even as CDs for that matter but the consumer has spoken LOUD AND CLEAR that MP3 is "good enough" and much more convenient."

Compelling content and creativity should be expected of any true professional in media production, no matter what genre they work in. Garbage is garbage, whether it's in VHS or 35mm, or whatever format. There is significantly more revenue potential by creating content in HD, and then down rezzing it for use in SD, whether that be SD broadcast, DVD, streaming, or whatever, than to create the same content in SD and have no reasonable option for hi-def revenue.

I have a shelf full of Emmy Awards and I'm a national Emmy Awards judge, so I have a real good handle on the concept of "compelling content and creativity".

By the way, we are not negative... we are more realistic and combating the people who are insisting that SD is dead as acquistion and that you are somehow better off having a $2000 HDV cam than a $50,000 2/3" CCD SD cam.

Steve, you DO realize that for the last 5 years, the next year has been pegged as "the year of HD" right? Many of the links you posted are older or contain vague and confusing information. Many pushing HDTV disguise the truths by confusing the language with DIGITAL... etc. etc. etc.

I truly believe HD will eventually take off, if for no other reason that it can be flagged, protected, etc. The prices will come way down for both creating, delivering and watching HD content but right now we are still taking baby steps.

Remember, getting the HDTVs into peoples homes is but step 1. As I posted above, currently only half the people who own HDTVs have even bothered to hook up an HD signal to it!!!!

Ultimately, whether HD takes off tomorrow, or 10 years from now, SD will never be dead, too much great content exists. There will be better and better ways to upconvert SD as HD becomes more prevalent.

For the record I am currently working on multiple projects that were shot in HD on a Varicam that are being editing in 720P DVCproHD... I just dont pretend that any other workflow isnt viable... I am also working on several SD projects....



ash =o)

Good for you... where did I say you didnt know what was good? Dont take this stuff so personally. I know good and well there are some projects that you can get more budget for by shooting in HD or film for that matter... as noted above, I have projects that do just that. There are others that you CANT get more from. Like I say about everything, pick the camera and the format based on the project needs and available budget. I dont see where that factors into SD being dead...



ash =o)

Who claimed SD was dead? My posts have each observed that the new DVCPro HD (HVX) and HDV cameras allow production in HD and SD. There will be SD production applications for a long time to come. Who’s saying someone is better off with a $2k HDV camera than a $50k 2/3” CCD SD camera? Each has their uses as a tool. Let me tell you something. Besides my work as a producer and director. I work extensively as a DP for national television programs with HDCAM (F900) and Varicams. I also work with every format of camera from PD150, DVX100A, up to Betacam ,DigiBeta, and on and on. I am intimately knowledgeable about each format, each camera, and their uses and drawbacks.

I have deep knowledge about the relationship between “digital”, DTV, and HDTV. If you took the time to read the link paragraphs in my long post above, you would have noticed that I purposely included one with this quote so that readers would know the relationship of Digital, DTV, and HDTV: “Statistics included surpassing the 9 million mark in DTV sets sold to date, of which over 87% were HDTV-capable (the remainder being SDTV or EDTV sets).” Link: http://www.tecnec.com/news.asp

As for saying the posts are “older” or “vague and confusing”, if you do a Google search for “HDTV penetration rates”, you will find that the links I have given are the most current that an online search can uncover. What’s “confusing”?

If you read the articles I linked in my long post they give predictions for when the prices will come down. Content?

"An increase in HDTV sales will fuel the demand for other services including high-definition VOD, local content, primetime programming, and movies.” Link: http://www.rtoonline.com/Content/Art...Grow102805.asp

“At the same time, more and more digital and HD content is being created and produced each year by television stations, the major networks and news networks – now more than 7 million hours -- with approximately 10% of it produced in HDTV.” Link: http://www.tmcnet.com/tmcnet/columni...gy-savicky.htm
“Kaufhold explains that by pushing up the deadline, the FCC hopes to solve the old chicken versus egg problem that often accompanies new technology introductions—no one will buy the new gadgets until they are cheap, and they can't get cheap until enough people buy enough of them to allow manufacturers to realize a certain economy of scale.” Link: http://www.emedialive.com/Articles/R...ArticleID=4917

Critical content
Further fueling HDTV adoption is the arrival of high-quality HD programming onto DVDs as well as cable, satellite and broadcast networks.
After initially complaining that they were being pushed into a market with little consumer interest, networks such as the Discovery Channel, ESPN, HBO, Showtime and Bravo are upgrading parts or all of their programming into high definition. That's on top of the 1,292 national and local stations offering digital broadcasts, according to the National Association of Broadcasters.
"This is the biggest change in televisionland since color in the early to mid-1960s," said Jeffrey Yorke, a spokesman for NAB. Link: http://news.com.com/Tuning+up+for+HD...3-5366749.html


As noted in one of my long post links, over 75% of cable customers in the U.S. have HDTV lines available to them. With the penetration of HDTV, progressively more of them will access those lines.

Each year there will be less and less applications for SD and more and more applications for HD. Good SD content that was produced in DVCPro50 or DigiBeta will upconvert reasonably well. Be my guest. Stay with SD for the next 10 years or so. Life’s full of choices. A tool that will shoot HD and SD simply has a lot more utilitarian value then one that does one or the other – unless a special use tool is needed just for SD.

OK, an for the record, I have worked as a producer, director, editor, and DP on an extensive list of HD (CineAlta & Varicam) and SD projects – in fact over 700 national television programs that aired on 12 different broadcast and cable networks. If you want more info on them, simply visit my web site.

Hey look, my post that started this whole thread was not confrontational in the slightest. Several posters then placed positive feedback, followed by some negative posts.

Postscript: Chris Hurd has asked me to be a moderator for this board. You’ll be seeing my input a lot more around here. I’m on the road constantly doing my TV work, but I take the time to post here to give back to the system and mentor other less-experienced media workers. I usually find posting enjoyable…

Excellent, I am a new mod too... my posting that I was working in HD was not patting my back but rather showing that I am indeed aware and taking advantage of the opportunities HD can afford.

Many people, even in the links you provided, use DIGITAL and HDTV interchangeably. People confuse the 2009 date as an HDTV mandate...not true as SD Digital is one of the acceptable formats.

As far as SD being dead... it has been said over and over... not by you, but by many... dont take this stuff personally, we are merely stating opinions not attacking a point of view. We are all on equal ground here, you will find Oscar nominees, Emmy winners, feature DPs, broadcast producers, etc... but we match our opinions/wit with the kids making movies in their garages who may see things a way we never have...

I dont doubt that 75% of the US can access HD... but less than 5% of the broadcast day is shown in HD and, like I have said over and over, you have 50% of people who own an HDTV who have spent on average over $2000 a set who have yet to see a frame of HD. All it would take is an extra $10 a month for the HD cable box or satellite decoder....

I think everyone in this forum loves HD and wants it to take off... some of us are more pessimistic, others optimistic, other realistic... Truth is... nobody knows what is what and it ultimately wont matter... =o)



ash =o)

If I owned a $50,000 SD camera I'd be thinking about selling it while it still has some resale value, and there's no way I would spend that much on an SD-only camera today unless I had a really good reason to do so. It would be unrealistic to think that SD-only acquisition will do anything but decline in value over the next few years, and it's clear that HD acquisition with varied-format output will become the de facto standard for any serious videography work. There's no plausible logical argument otherwise, and why we're even bothering to debate it is a mystery to me. Once you've seen a good HD image on a decent HDTV it's obvious that the world will migrate to HD acquisition, especially now that the cost of acceptable HD acquisition is dropping. SD is done for as a primary acquisition format, except for those still trying to squeeze some value out of their existing equipment.

Kevin... equipment declines in value no matter what. Equipment is not an investment, it is only as good as the return it generates. If an SDX900 can still generate great revenue for you, then why dump it? As SD declines, HD will also get cheaper...either way... you will lose money on your equipment.
It is seriously your contention that an FX1 HDV camera is more professional and a better choice than a camera like the SDX900? Ask 50 DPs what they would choose for an SD project... ANY 1/3" HD or HDV cam or an SD cam like the SDX900...

You guys are really missing the point... let's say most people drive the equivalent of a $10,000 car. You show them the $30,000 car and of course they think it looks better and rides better but until the $30,000 car is $10,000 IT WONT MATTER! HDTV will take off when and ONLY when, it is priced the same a SDTV media and equipment which will in effect, push SD out of the way.

EVEN THEN... there will still be a huge demand for SD acquisition and delivery. Not everything is broadcast... not everything goes to film... You know how many wedding videos, EPK, music videos, etc. etc. etc. are done just by people in these forums? Some of that will move to HD but a lot of it wont. For most companies I dont see ANY benefit in delivering or shooting their EPK, or corporate videos in HD.


ash =o)

No, of course not. My contention is that the demand for SD-only acquisition and equipment could drop off rapidly in the next few years, and I wouldn't want to get stuck with a $50K SD camera once that happens. If you can make money with such an item and don't care about the resale value that's fine, but I wouldn't buy something like that today unless I had a project which was definitely going to pay for owning it in the short term. I understand B&H has already started refusing some of the more popular SD cameras (e.g. DSR-250) for listing on their used equipment pages, and if that's true that's just one sign of the shape of things to come.

That's precisely why HDV and other affordable HD acquisition options are so significant. HDV makes basic HD videography possible at DV price points, and the HVX200 makes mid-range HD videography possible for under $10K. Next year we'll see some "upper middle class" HD cameras which further challenge SD-only equipment options, and the Canon XL-H1 already offers uncompressed HD at a ridiculously low price.

Where I live it's rare that I go to a customer's house and they *don't* already own an HDTV. That tells me where the future of acquisition is headed, and not sometime in the far-distant future.

That's exactly what is happening now... I can't say if that's true about B&H, but it's obvious that the demand for SD-Only equipment will sharply drop over the next couple years. For myself, I know I won't buy any gear from here on out (starting with the HVX) unless it is capable of HD and while my final delivery may still be SD (primarily DVD for the foreseeable future), I doubt I will do any SD acquisition from here on out as well.

Same here. While I've seen a lot of market reports and sales figures that show standard SD TV sets still lead the way in sales, most people I know who have a 40" or larger TV have already gone to HD or will do so as soon as their current TV gets upgraded in the next year or two. The reality of the market is that 19" to 27" TV sets in the < $300 range dominate in terms of volume sales. As soon as digital and/or HDTV compliant sets penetrate that market, then everyone will be buying HD. And we should see the market shift that way in (my semi-educated guess here) about 2 years.

But HD is where it's at for now and into the near future (until something better comes along). Or at least it's where it's at for production. Anyone not taking advantage of HD production capabilities is just cutting their own throat, even if they still only deliver on VHS and DVD.

This figure is quite misleading because of all of the inexpensive syndication reruns that dominate the hours when no one is watching. Much of the syndicated programming will be in SD for decades. But almost 100% of the network scripted programming and a large percentage of network and cable sports is airing in HD now in prime time. The 3% figure is bogus because it counts all broadcast channels and times equally. What is the HD broadcast market share based on households watching a program (in SD or HD) that is being broadcast in HD? While I may be ahead of the curve with no less than 4 HDTV's in my home, at least 75% of the programming I watch on TV, broadcast and cable, is in HDTV ( I do not watch reality TV). If you have a set and a source, you can certainly achieve far more than 3% of your viewing hours in HD. The 2005 fall season marked a real turning point for HDTV network broadcasts. Even late night shows like Letterman and Conan are now on in HD.

My local news station is going to HD in February, as are several other local markets. I know that a lot of locals are buying the JVC HDV camcorder and I suspect that many will be purchasing the Canon and HVX-200 as well. The cost of acquisition and editing a digital camera like the HVX with a hard-drive is very tempting for a local broadcaster. Once we start seeing local station originated content such as news in HD, I don't think it will be long before the same stations start requiring some sort of HD for other new programs.

Sure, there will be plenty of new SD programming to be produced for some time. But to think that there is not going to be a proliferation of small HD productions starting up in 2006 - 2007 is naive.

Production and adoption are two very different things though. Production is moving rapidly to mostly-HD origination, for longevity purposes if nothing else.

Yes, the majority of prime-time non-reality programming is originated in HD. But who's watching it in HD? Besides me & Mike, that is? About 7% of US households have HDTVs in them. Of those that have HDTVs, at least half have no connection to any sort of HD service (meaning an external OTA antenna, or HD cable service, or DirecTV HDTV). Less than half who have access are actually paying the costs to get the HD service.

VOOM went out of business because they couldn't get subscribers.

And even when customers pay for the service, how many channels do they get? In LV on Cox Cable, there are about 246 channels. I think six are HD.

I won't watch anything in SD if there's an HD broadcast of it, that's for darn sure. And I'm moving to all-HD origination this year. But I still think it's gonna be a long, long time before HD makes serious inroads into a large percentage of US households.

My bellweather right now, for knowing when HD is starting to make a dent in the # of viewers, is going to be when I see the first commercial airing in HD. Right now every commercial on every HD broadcast I see is up-rezzed SD. Which is funny, because most of the decent-budget commercials I've worked on have all been shot on HD; but advertisers apparently aren't finding the additional HD post costs worth it in order to finish the spots on HD.

The day advertisers start to find it worthwhile to actually deliver an HD master of their commercials for HD broadcast is the day that I'm going to start believing that HD programming is actually reaching a significant percentage of US households. The Consumer Electronics Association and the manufacturers can release all the pie-in-the-sky stats they want, but it's the advertisers who know who their market really is. When they start finishing commercials in HD and broadcasting them in HD, that's when you'll know HD penetration has become a market force to be reckoned with.

Mike, you proved my point... yes those numbers I posted are a bit skewed but SOMEONE IS PRODUCING ALL THAT SD CONTENT! How many hours in the day of paid programming, infomercials, etc. are there? TONS and it makes no sense for them to go to HD, even as source. The major networks only make up a FRACTION of the broadcast hours in a day.



ash =o)

This is where your argument falls apart... you are obviously not coming from an average Joe perspective. Even the highest estimates have HDTV penetration at around 15% right now. That is great for you, you are doing work for very high end customers but dont use your experience as the benchmark for the world.

An average HDTV costs over $1600 right now which for many people is out of reach. By the end of 2010, the projected average cost is still well over $1000. Convincing people that they should replace their $300 TV with an $1100 TV is not easy and for most, not plausible.

I think it is great that you and others are producing content for the 15% of the people after the high end format but dont forget about the other 85% of people...



ash =o)

I have already seen a few HDTV true HD commercials on broadcast TV. The first one that I saw was, I think, 3 years ago when ABC did its first superbowl. They broadcasted that game with two sets of cameras (mostly) and two directors and (presumably) two trucks. Anyway, there was a movie trailer that they showed in HD, and I'm sure that it was not simply up-ressed. Not only was it widescreen, but it had a full DD5.1 soundtrack and I remember that it really looked killer. Since then, I have seen a handful of HD commercials, mostly on premium event broadcasts like the superbowl. But your (Barry's) point is well taken. There is not been any proliferation of HD commercials shown on TV yet and this says to me that it is not necessary for advertisers to increase sales.

It is interesting to hear that commercials are being shot in HD now and not being broadcast that way. One aspect of this that I'd be curious in learning about is if these HD commercials are shot with purely a 4x3 perspective. The biggest little secret about HDTV programming now is that it is all geared (except theatrical programming) to the SD aspect ratio. While football is great in HD, when the QB drops back to throw a pass, he is always kept in the 4x3 frame instead of keeping him at the edge of the 16x9 frame and allowing the HD viewer to see more of what is going on upfield. The same is true for scripted programming. Often what we see on the right and left side of the scene are simply nicely lit sets that do not add to the story. Worse yet, sometimes we see half of a person that is not involved the dialog on the side.

So yes, HDTV still has a LONG way to go to become what many of us think it will be. And again yes, infomercials and other low budget and late night programming will probably be shot and edited and broadcast in SD for quite some time to come. And there will be many savvy producers who take advantage of this work and wait to upgrade to HD. In reality, I'm sure that I could wait until 2007 to take the plunge in my business. But with the HVX priced where it is and being like a mini-varicam HD, why wouldn't I start switching over in the next several months. For me, it is HD-DVD or Blue-Ray that I will be watching the most to see how they take off. If they are slow to adopt, I can securely wait to go HD regardless of how many homes are watching HD. But if I were in the broadcast production business, I would be taking what Barry said about commercials being shot now in HD and the proliferation of HDTV's and prime time programming as a sign that you should be prepared to move to HD quickly.

We are also seeing more and more re-runs, so lets not forget, that when someone gets done a really succesfull program, it might be shown once a year in some network for the next 50 years or so. If the program is SD, it's attractiveness will surely lower after about a decade...

True... many of the newer sitcoms will have an HD master but the majority of syndicated re-runs wont... Like I said somewhere in one of these debates... there will be better up-rezzing technologies as a result of HD proliferation when it happens...



ash =o)

Give it a rest.
 

Blah blah, blah blah blah....

Done too death. This whole subject is getting more and more boring with each posted addition - mine included!!

These particular sub-forums are devoted to those people who are either interested in HD/HDV and the cameras that are now available to shoot it. By inference, HD viewing devices are discussed.

Who gives a rat's how long it takes for HD viewing devices to dominate the World!! You want to get into HD? Then get into HD. You want to stay SD? Stay SD.

This is just so much pedantic crap that goes round and bloody round in circles achieving nothing. If you don't like HD/HDV/HDTV, then go play with the SD folks in their sub-forums, and blow kisses of appreciation at each other - and let us HD/HDV/HDTV folks congratulate ourselves on how clever we've been to beat all the SD lovers to the punch... even if it means we get our asses burned!!

There's only one thing that knows how all this stuff is going to pan out - that's time, and no five knuckle shuffler convention is gonna alter that.

Have the guts of your convictions and beliefs to know that whatever you decide to do in the face of this new technology, it's the right decision for you... and that there's no need to make yourselves look like scared and lonely kids who've got to convince everyone else that they're wrong in order to feel good about themselves.

I read an interview with Mark Cuban from HDnet awhile ago. Interestingly, he said that the OLD sitcoms (like Leave it to Beaver) were the first things they re-mastered for HD. It was relatively easy to do this, since they were all originally shot on film...