All I can ask people, is to please have some other secondary plans for 1st July, so that you don't get all depressed and leap off a bridge when it doesn't appear ;)

Aaron

<<<-- Originally posted by Aaron Koolen : All I can ask people, is to please have some other secondary plans for 1st July, so that you don't get all depressed and leap off a bridge when it doesn't appear ;)

Aaron -->>>

If anyone does jump, I know a few dozen operators with DVX's that would love to shoot it :)

Many DVX operators have told me to take a flying leap as it is, so I can't say that them lining up to video tape it surprises me.

It's funny I had the same reaction as Luis, every day I'd check to see if anyone had posted and then today I was so excited finally some news and... drat.

As far as the 1st of july thing goes I suspect it will be closer to the 13-16 of july and I'm sure SOMEONE who monitors these boards will be in attendance. I'm becoming more and more discouraged about the idea of an HDXL-1 as it seems like everytime HDV is mentioned it is discounted heavily by particular users on this forum who would probably be more in the know then the rest of us (but limited by Non discolsure agreements).

I'm wondering if there will be something new entirely or if Canon will implement the thing the varicam has so that it can be used on FCPHD. (remember way back in the day when apple and canon we're like peas and carrots, then FCP supported 24p shooting and now varicam footage, but yet panasonic is mysteriously absent from the apple store website, so who knows maybe the next step will be full on HD -over DVCPRO 50- instead of this HDV standard so readily embraced by the camera makers that don't want to lose marke share for their Big HD cameras) If you ever looked inside of a Varicam you'll notice that the tape heads are small, really small, dv camera small so who knows maybe the new canon cam will have HD over fire wire, maybe, probably not.

Either way I believe the announement will come at dv expo east (canon is a platinum sponser- awful lot of money to spend to keep promoting the older and consumer cameras.. I guess) Then the camera will be available in september, perhaps it'll blow the socks off of the upcoming sony HDV cam, or maybe it'll just blow.

I really don't feel like there is a market (or growing market) for SD anymore, but maybe if it just blows everything SD away... I probably still wouldn't buy it. So please canon don't make me a SONY man.

Nick, your mention of HD over firewire made my ears prick up. Now that could be something that would take a few leaps ahead of the competition. Although it'd probably take a few leaps over the limit of my wallet too...

Aaron

For whats its worth, the HDV format (compression wise) is a pretty solid format, the compression is pretty free from the artifacts that you would assume come along with the Mpeg2 format. Its just sad that the first camera had to be the cheezy 1 CCD JVC hunk of junk.

Personally, I would keep my eyes and ears open when DV expo East rolls through town, it would seem to be the perfect time and place to release the camera... Although DV expo West a few months ago was somewhat of a Joke.

Aren't there some artifacts during fast motion?

<<<-- Originally posted by Mark Grgurev : Aren't there some artifacts during fast motion? -->>>

Not as bad as some people made it out to be.. its just like watching a DVD, but better. HDV has between 19mbps data rates, and DVD's are usually encoded at around 7 or 8mbps. Sure, on a 100" or larger screen you can tell, but its pretty damn good. And remember the only thing people have seen is the crappy consumer JVC.. the new cameras will use the high level (or should use the high level) format of HDV that can churn out up to 100mbps but will tap out at 25mbps.. all at a wonderfull 4:2:2 colorspace.

But.. if the XL2 uses that format, expect to pay upto 10,000 for it.

Probably that's not Canon's intended market, but I'd rather see a $10,000 XL1 replacement that deprecates $50,000 cameras than a $3,000 XL2 that adds no significant value over the old camera.

you may of hit the nail on the head... remember canon doesnt make a "real" camera.. so They would be glad to take away some of those Sony and Panasonic and JVC $20-$60,000 big boys... and they do however make an assortment of HD zooms and primes ready for the big cameras, so it may be an IN for them, who knows.

<<<-- Originally posted by Jarred Land : ... so They would be glad to take away some of those Sony and Panasonic and JVC $20-$60,000 big boys... -->>>

Jarred,
If I am accurately interpreting your remark, nothing could be further from reality. I can virtually guarantee that Canon makes far, far more from selling lenses for "real cameras" than they do selling XL1's. The broadcast and professional optics market is a big one in which Canon enjoys the 900 lb gorilla seat. To that end, they must be somewhat careful not to encroach too deeply on the "real camera" manufacturers' ground.

Personally I would move the red circle to half July... just to make
you not pull all your hair....

That whole "better not piss off our competetor" moto went out in the 90's. Companies dont hate each other like we all think, in fact they work together more than ever now.

Things have changed, and I gurantee you, as panasonic can prove with the 100,000 unit sales of the DVX in less than a year, The "prosumer" market is very prosperous, and a market that Canon desperately wants to get back into now that sales of the XL1 has hit the bottom.

Then explain why they don't have a higher model than the prosumer XL1s?

thats something you hafta ask Canon.. all I can do is guess.

My guess would be that with the strong ENG dominance by JVC and Sony, they did a risk assesment and found that to spend the millions of R&D it costs to make a new product, to sell 1000 or so high end cameras a year if they where lucky wasnt worth it... which is why they make lenses because its a better payoff.

I think Canon is a very cautious company that doesnt like to spend money in this segment or the prosumer segment, Look at the near decade old Xl1 as an example. Even thier booths at Trade shows are pretty weak, I actually couldnt believe thier mickey mouse booth at NAB.

Dont get me wrong, Im not saying canon is a bad company at all... that is just my guess. They did have the best prosumer camera from 1996-2003.

Canon "Pro" Level camera FWIW
 

"Then explain why they don't have a higher model than the prosumer XL1s?"

Companies like Sony, Panasonic, JVC dont just release cameras, they release entire SYSTEMS including Decks, Cameras, Editors etc. Canon would have to break in to a market that has at least three really really really established companies to compete with. the only company that sells only a camera with any sucess is Ikegami. So for Canon to realisticly do a "pro" camera they would have to have not just one but at least two ENG cameras one with half inch chips and one with two thirds chips into a market that already have near a dozen different cameras with matching decks and other accessories and only wind up in 5th int the market place which really doesn't make sense. Just ask JVC how much fun it is being third and always playing catch up. The millions or R&D plus the equal number of millions of marketing would never pay for such a high end camera no matter how "killer" it is. Plus the XL and GL along with the DVX100 and PD170 have really gone a long way to chip away at the feet of the big ENG cameras. Why spend so many resources breaking into a market whos days are numbered......

I agree that I would rather pay 10000 bucks for a canon version of the varicam then pay 3000 for a dvx-100(a) with interchangable lenses. I agree that canon still holds the market for broadcast lenses but I think that there are slowly losing market share to fujinon. Will they get out of the lens business anytime soon? I wouldn't bet on it. But it might be kind of a neat thing to have both your camera and lens made by the same company for a broadcast camera.

Another thing to consider is the cost of canon glass. I know that panasonic made a lot off of the sales of dvx 100's last year (100,000? cameras) but if you consider each HD lens that canon sells is at least 5-6 times the cost of a dvx100 and each SD lens they sell is 2-3 times the cost, then you get an idea of how few lenses they wwuold have to sell in order to get the market share "lost" by the xl-1.

Michael also raises a good point but if Canon can develop a camera that will be slighly above the prosumer mark amd steal some business away from the varicam and others, then the Millions in R&D eould be a good investment after all.

Jarred,
You misunderstood my remarks. The issue is not one of angering "competetors"[sp]; the issue is avoiding competition with prime customers.

Companies like Canon are organized into market segment divisions. Within the video product lines, for example, everything seen on this page is sold by a consumer division. Everything represented on this page is developed and marketed by a broadcast and professional division. Development of a camera with some of the sophistication that many here would wish for would certainly create quite a bloody internal war. If you've ever worked for a large, multinational company you'll know what this means...and it's not pretty.

In the end, the market for such a camera would be pretty puny and such a battle would be unprofitable and counterproductive. Canon would probably do much better (financially) to simply enhance their photocopier lines, which probably contribute as much or more to Canon's bottom-line than video gear.

<< now that sales of the XL1 has hit the bottom. >>

You may want to believe that, but it's not true. XL1S sales have not bottomed out; just try to buy one. Just about every dealer in the U.S. has sold through their allotment. They can't keep it in stock. Canon will definitely sell (already has sold nearly) every single one they make, that's why authorized dealer pricing has never fallen. After that rebate expires, you won't be able to buy one, because they'll be sold out completely. Plus, the manufacturer's rebate offer caused XL1S sales to jump way up from December '03 to the present.

<< which is why they make lenses because its a better payoff. >>

They make lenses because that's what they have always done. Canon is the world's largest manufacturer of optical glass. Lenses have been their specialty since before there ever was a consumer video market. Ken's statement is the correct one, it's much more profitable for Canon to make broadcast video lenses for the Pansonic, Sony, JVC etc. professional video cameras, and Canon video camcorders will *always* be consumer pieces (although some are used in a professional capacity).

<< I think Canon is a very cautious company that doesnt like to spend money in this segment or the prosumer segment >>

Canon is a conservative company, but they love to spend money. More than 8% of their net sales is spent on research and development. They love to make money, too: last year Canon's gross profit margin was 56%, compared to Panasonic parent corp. Matsushita's gross profit margin of 32%.

<< Look at the near decade old Xl1 as an example. >>

The XL1 is not a decade old. It's forty months old (Jan '98 to Jul '02). The XL1S is about 24 months old (Jul '02 to Jul '04). I suppose I can understand why some people still can't grasp that concept, but the two models are completely different camcorders, only the body molding is the same. There is all the difference in the world between an XL1 and an XL1S, so much more so than, say, the bug-fix between the DVX100 and DVX100A.

<< Even thier booths at Trade shows are pretty weak, I actually couldnt believe thier mickey mouse booth at NAB. >>

Heh, I would hardly call an 80' x 100' booth at NAB "mickey mouse." Although it was smaller than the Pansonic and Sony booths, it was in fact larger than JVC's 70' x 80' booth. Canon is the only manufacturer to present a "touch and try" counter at trade shows. All other video camera manufacturers will show only one camera of any model, locked off on a tripod, and you have to cluster around it and wait for that one overwhelmed rep to give you a minute of their time before someone else interrupts. However the Canon counter will always have at least six or eight cameras of each type, with just as many reps at the counter, and the cameras are not locked off, but may be picked up and handled at will. It's definitely the best way to show product. You can actually get your hands on it and talk to someone about it, and there are plenty of cameras and people to talk to. This makes a lot more sense than the way JVC, Sony and Panasonic present at trade shows.

Here's what really is "mickey mouse" at trade shows: the newest products from all the other camera manufacturers are made out of trees. Wooden camcorders. Balsa cams, not Dalsa cams. Termite food under glass which you can't touch and nobody knows pricing or availability -- just that it'll be very cool if the mock-up ever becomes real someday. The Canon booth always has working models, not wooden blocks, and they can be bought today (or within a couple of weeks), not in a year from now or whenever. They won't show what you can't buy.

<< Dont get me wrong, Im not saying canon is a bad company at all... that is just my guess. >>

Oh, you could go ahead and say it's a bad company, that's okay. But it sure wouldn't explain why it's the fifth most profitable company in Japan (way, way ahead of Sony and Matsushita), or the third largest patent holder in the world.

Yeah, that tired old XL1S, that one single product sure is dragging an entire multi-billion dollar corporation down to its knees. The XL1S has brought them to the brink of financial ruin! Canon could collapse at any moment! How can they just stand by and let that happen?

Third largest patent holder: interesting to know. What's the bulk of this--optics, electronics, code? Or other?

Chris,

Well said! My thoughts exactly!

Looking forward to seeing you this week in Lake Success ;-)

- don

Robert: all of the above, but primarily imaging technologies. Correction to my previous post, Canon is not the third largest, but second largest patent holder in the world.

Don: can't wait to see the whole crew again, should be an interesting week! I'll buy the first round Wednesday night.

The list, as published recently for the years 1993 through 2003 (11 years)

1. IBM
2. Canon
3. NEC
4. Hitachi
5. Sony
6. Matsushita
7. Toshiba
8. Mitsubishi
9. Samsung
10. Motorola

IBM's total was well in excess of 25,000 patents, over 3,4000 just last year. I guess the Japanese have the right idea, with their universities turning out 10 engineers to every 1 lawyer. Well at least we can sue them for infringing on our patents. I wonder if any nation ever sued itself to greatness?

Chris's new list is only a 2003 listing; Jeff's list goes back 11 years. The first list linked to goes back to 1969, i.e., it extends over the entire duration of every issued patent's lifetime, making Canon #3.

Issued patents aren't necessarily currently valid patents (some may have been since overturned), or even patents enforced (often enough, they're the result of a pre-emptive filing just to make sure nobody else causes you trouble).

Wow, I go out of town for a few days and this thread suddenly gets new life!

Chris:

"The XL1 is not a decade old. It's forty months old (Jan '98 to Jul '02). The XL1S is about 24 months old (Jul '02 to Jul '04)"

I'm not trying to nitpick too much here, but didn't the XL1s come out in July of 2001? That makes it 3 years old now, not 2. And 3 seems to be the magic number for canon in terms of upgrade and/or replacement. As you always say, we can learn a lot from history.

And by the way.... why would you say the 'ending' date of the XL1s is Jul '04? We are only now in June.

Did the kennelmaster let something slip there by mistake?
:)

I'll just assume you did it for the sake of ease... round up on your estimates, right?

-Luis

Yes, it's much closer to 3 years than 2.

They may not have started to become widely available until sometime around January 2002, but that still makes them older than 24 months.

Time for a new camera.

XL1S introduced in July 2001, that's right. That was my stupid mistake, sorry.

I search the xl2 wishlist & couldn't find this question so I thought area 51 is a good place :)


Will the XL2 use ccd or cmos technology?


Could Canon just hack their own technology, ie using the cmos chip they put in the 10D?

Increase the fps from 3fps (As it currently is implemented in the 10D) to either 24, 25 or 30 fps

Then compress it to HDV like the JVC to use mini-dv tapes.

Or offer a way to capture uncompressed 6.3 megapixel video to a terabyte firestore :)

Here is what the XL2 frame grabs should look like:

(from a canon 10d)

http://www.pbase.com/image/26211947
http://www.pbase.com/image/26211694
http://www.pbase.com/image/26259572

I know a guy who knows a guy whose cousin is a janitor at Canon in Tokyo and from what I hear Canon is going to announce on July 1st that they are getting out of the prosumer camcorder market for good...

If he's right --- and I hear that he's a very savvy janitor --- that will mean that the XL1S will be the last high-end Canon prosumer camcorder made...

Better get them while you can!

;o)

All I know is, the DVX100A is killing Canon in profits.

heath

Current sales revenues of the DVX are probably exceeding those of the XL1S by a wide margin. It's a chic camera (with good reason).

Gross profits, however, are quite a separate matter. As the XL1 system has many more branded accessories than the DVX, my off-hand guess would be that Panasonic has a long, long way to go to match the profits that Canon has enjoyed from the XL1 system.

"Will the XL2 use ccd or cmos technology?"


Rumor has it that there is a good chance it will be a 3 chip CMOS camera. But again, that is just rumor.

Of course, I don't really know how that will matter from a user perspective, or if it really means much of anything in relation to image quality.

I just know that's what I've heard.

-Luis

<< the DVX100A is killing Canon in profits. >>

No, it isn't. Sales of one particular camera model do not make or break the profit margins of any multi-billion dollar corporation. See my post above, where I present the references to Canon far outstripping Matsushita's (Panasonic's) gross profit margin. For that matter, Canon makes significantly more money from the sales of single-chip camcorders than their three-chip models. For every single XL1S sold, they're also selling a few dozen ZR85's.

You can accurately say that the DVX100A is outselling the XL1S. But from that fact you cannot conclude that Canon is being "killed" in terms of profit because the XL1S is only one of hundreds of products that Canon sells. Nor can you conclude that XL1S sales are down. They're not -- they're up, because of the rebate. They're definitely not selling better than the DVX100A, but they are up.

Rumour has it that the XL2 WAS released at NAB, but it delivered such an incredible picture, that Panasonic bought every single one from Canon before they hit the public market so that the DVX100 would still be the trendiest camera.

I fully understand Chris here, but that also has a flip side. If the XL1s is such a small player in the overall profit of Canon then will they give it the attention and enhancments that we, as video people, would love to see?

Guess we all have to wait and we'll find out soon enough..

Aaron

The xl1s' chips are old and not the equal of the panny. Canon has to upgrade and they know it.

I'd actually be happy with a xl2 with 1/2 chips and 16x9 native. You can shoot some nice stuff with that. Perhaps the GL3 will be like that.

The panny sdx900 is 16x9 native with 2/3 chips and 24p and sells for 25k without lenses. And the footage is very equivalent to super16mm film.

I doubt Canon is going to boink that cam - at the 5k price point.

<<<-- Originally posted by Michael Struthers : The panny sdx900 is 16x9 native with 2/3 chips and 24p and sells for 25k without lenses. And the footage is very equivalent to super16mm film. >>>

When viewed on an NTSC monitor, or projected (digitally? or after a film-out?)

It's a bold statement to claim ANY digitally originated footage as being equivalent to film, especially from a SD camera, albeit a very good one in this case. Only the highest end HD cameras such as the Dalsa can claim comparable exposure latitude.

I think the SDX900 looks great. But Super 16 is still better, and thanks to Kodak's tireless efforts to improve their stocks, the bar keeps raising.

From the few tiny little fissures of information that are leaking out of the hulking dam of secrecy that surrounds the XL2, it seems safe to say that it IS happening, and it WILL be worth the wait. I don't think it will knock the SDX900 out of the water, but it isn't in that market. The question is, will it displace the DVX100 from its current throne. I think, given the "flavor-of-the-month" environment that surrounds this class of camera (partially due to the relatively low price points), that this will be the case within six months of release.

"I'd actually be happy with a xl2 with 1/2 chips and 16x9 native"

Really?
You'd be willing to slum it with just 1/2" chips and native 16:9 on
a $5K camera?
:)

I hope no one is holding their breath for that one to be released.


Charles said:
"it seems safe to say that it IS happening, and it WILL be worth the wait."

What exactly makes you say that it WILL be worth the wait?
I just hope that the 'dam of secrecy' as you put it hasn't caused
over-anticipation for the camera. Then again, Canon doesn't
have to do too much to regain the throne.

"The question is, will it displace the DVX100 from its current throne."

I think it is probably a given that it will displace the DVX, as long
as Canon just plays 'catch up' at a minimum. An XL with 24p, XLR
inputs, and some gamma curve control alone would beat out the
DVX (given that the XL has the interchangable lens options).

If any of the rumors of native 16:9 and possibly HDV modes are
true, then it won't take much for Canon to hit this one out of the
park.


The big point with a lot of people will be 24p. Whether or not we
all agree on 24p video, the majority of people seem to want it. If
it weren't for the 24p options on the DVX, I doubt panasonic
would be selling them so fast.
(you could say they're selling them like they're going out of style).
:)

Does anyone know who holds the patents on Panasonic's 24p?
Did they liscense that technology, or do they own it?

-Luis

So, just how much different does video look when shot at 24p versus the 30p that the XL1S currently utilizes??? Would 24p compare at all to the Frame mode of the XL1S?

I could imagine adding a "new" Canon XL if (an important if) the video shot with one complimented and could be edited with the other without any glaring differences...

"Film Look" covers a lot of territory...

== Ed ==

I shoot on 30p a lot and it looks great, but our 24p cameras that our students use (at the Palm Beach Film School, plug plug) look a lot like film. In that non-35 mm/non-CineAlta way. :-)

heath